MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB/NW KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...
   
   VALID 060030Z - 060200Z
   
   ...CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS/HAIL...
   
   BEST AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN EXTENT OF
   MANITOBA SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL NEB...WHERE
   MOST OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. THERE ARE
   SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   INCLUDING A WWD MOVING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS WRN KS.
   THIS HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO A FLARE UP OF STORMS NOW OVER SHERMAN
   AND WALLACE COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT PER
   NEBRASKA PROFILER DATA/00Z NORTH PLATTE DATA WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ISOLD SUPERCELLS...WITH A SMALL MCS EXPECTED
   TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING.
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND
   GUSTS...WITH A RECENT REPORT OF 62 MPH JUST WEST OF GLD AND 70 MPH
   NEAR PHELPS NEB. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   38210120 38340249 39590237 41150011 41439796 39889815
   38739853 38590021

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL SD...SWRN MN...NWRN
   THROUGH CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081108Z - 081345Z
   
   LINE OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF HAIL AND SUB-50KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS NWRN AND PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IA
   THROUGH MIDMORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE HAIL.  6 INCH DEEP
   ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN LYON
   COUNTY AT ABOUT 1015Z. ALSO...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE
   WITH TIME AFTER SUNRISE.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MESOLOW REMAINING NEAR PIR...WITH
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SEWD ACROSS YKN AREA THEN DOWN MO RIVER
   VALLEY TOWARD NERN MO. MCS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NE OF THIS FRONT IN
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND
   1500 J/KG.  MU-EFFECTIVE SHEARS 50-60 KT FAVOR MAINTAINING
   ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LLJ WILL DIMINISH WITH WEAKENING
   STATE OF DECOUPLING ATOP NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...AS FOREGOING AIR
   MASS DIABATICALLY WARMS.  HOWEVER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD
   CHANGE LITTLE GIVEN THAT LLJ IS PERPENDICULAR TO MOTION OF ACTIVITY
   AND THAT MCS IS NOW COLD-POOL DRIVEN --I.E. PRIMARILY FORWARD
   PROPAGATIONAL. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED
   CONVECTIVE PARCELS ARE UNLIKELY UNTIL TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST MID
   70S F...THOUGH DIABATICALLY DRIVEN BOOST IN BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE PROBABILITY THAT STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS
   GENERATED ALOFT MAY PENETRATE RELATIVELY STABLE SUBCONVECTIVE LAYER
   AND REACH SFC.
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS
   MOVING FROM E-CENTRAL SD INTO SWRN MN...ATOP FRONTAL LAYER
   REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM NWRN IA MCS.  DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY DEPTH OF STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/08/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...
   
   42479572 43039605 43819572 44449753 45069709 44829584
   44449440 43769425 42929270 41679393

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO/NW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 774...

VALID 081738Z - 081915Z



CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

GIVEN FAVORABLE CAPE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF IOWA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED EAST SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE BURLINGTON
AREA...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION OF MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS THROUGH 20-21Z.

CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED THROUGH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK
WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NARROW
SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING NEXT FEW HOURS.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 081859Z - 082100Z



CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN WY WILL LIKELY
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SWRN
SD. GIVEN LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE AREA DEGREE OF SVR THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN ATTM.

STG CONVECTION OVER WRN CHERRY COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED
WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXISTED BENEATH MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ROTATION. THUS CONDITIONS OVER NCENTRAL NEB APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO ERN NEB WILL
BE MITIGATED AS A STRONG CAP /> 200 J/KG OF MLCINH/ DUE TO RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW EXISTS.

FURTHER WEST...HIGH BASED/DEEPLY MIXED CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF
SERN/ECENTRAL WY INTO SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA INTO PARTS OF NE MO...NW AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775...

VALID 081940Z - 082115Z



CONTINUE WW.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND 30-35 KT...THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WITH FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE FORCING...AND BROADER SCALE BOW ECHO STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE
READILY EVIDENT IN RADAR DATA PAST FEW HOURS. LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO
SUGGEST WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AS SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BURLINGTON IA AREA.
THEREAFTER...DRIER...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F...PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST ALONG GUST FRONT
THROUGH THE PEORIA/SPRINGFIELD IL AREAS BY 23-00Z.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091050Z - 091215Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH EARLY-MID MORNING.
   
   10Z SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED A NW-SE WARM FRONT OVER SD...
   WITH PERSISTENT PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ND.
   THESE SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE INDICATIVE OF ASCENT/WAA ASSOCIATED
   WITH A 35 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND/WRN MN.  ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER SERN WY PER WV IMAGERY.  CENTRAL
   ND TO NWRN MN ARE ALSO WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WLY MID
   LEVEL JET RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   GIVEN THIS DEEP LAYER ASCENT...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD
   IS REACHING THE LFC ACROSS ND ATTM AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADARS
   WITH THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID AND LOW LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE STRONG
   ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
   SUPPORT HAIL WITH THESE ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   47430073 48080022 48269874 48239698 47859580 46999501
   46069572 45879722 45969932 45960030 46580092

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UT...FAR NRN AZ...SWRN WY...AND FAR WRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091807Z - 092000Z
   
   INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL UT
   DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NRN AZ...WRN
   CO...AND SWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   AT 18Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG CLOSED LOW LOCATED NEAR
   THE CENTRAL CA/NV BORDER IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
   ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN UPPER FORCING/DEEP
   PVA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT NOW
   ACROSS FAR WRN UT SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL
   UT VICINITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S IN
   CENTRAL UT...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN CO.
   MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
   FORCING WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. MODERATE INSTABILITY
   COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 40-45KT SHOULD
   RESULT IN LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OF CENTRAL UT. EXTENT OF
   DESTABILIZATION EWD INTO WRN CO AND INTO SWRN WY IS LESS CLEAR AT
   THIS TIME. EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CO
   MOUNTAINS HAVE COOLED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN
   CO...HOWEVER...SOME RECOVERY IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EWD
   EXTENT OF SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AS ACTIVITY INCREASES
   IN UT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
   
   38341358 41051280 41881168 41870948 41460876 40630858
   38090842 37110898 36740931 36341102 36521220 37161336

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT/FAR WRN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 776...777...
   
   VALID 092359Z - 100130Z
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO MAY HAVE AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   AT UPPER-LEVELS...A SWRN TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NV WITH AN
   EJECTING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN NV
   AND SRN UT. STRONG ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO
   WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH SFC
   OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRYING CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ENOUGH
   INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A
   FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
   
   37551074 38931090 40021063 40561009 40640918 40360833
   39340795 37710835 37120901 37040983

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE NORTH
   DAKOTA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112056Z - 112230Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF WW.
   
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER PARCELS IS WEAKENING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO THE EAST/
   NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
   WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...CAPE IS
   NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...AND THIS MAY INCREASE FURTHER
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   
   THOUGH PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE IS WELL TO THE WEST...LIFTING FROM
   MONTANA INTO SASKATCHEWAN...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
   /WIND SHIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS BETWEEN NOW
   AND 00Z.  THIS WILL WEAKEN CAP FURTHER...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
   INITIATION APPEARS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD INTO THE
   VICINITY OF JAMESTOWN ND...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
   TO BECOME FOCUSED. 
   
   GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE.  POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO EXISTS...BUT LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/11/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   45730002 46669932 47079847 46899738 46059716 45569770
   45429828 45049905 44859990 45350031

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121927Z - 122130Z
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NERN SD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
   BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INITIATION APPEARS MOST
   LIKELY TOWARD THIS EVENING.
   
   AT 19Z...WEAK CYCLONE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
   SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN PIERRE AND CHAMBERLAIN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS
   REGION...WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT
   THROUGH E-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN MN. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG
   ARE PRESENT...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
   NEAR 70F.
   
   SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ACROSS E-CENTRAL SD.
   ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD AND NEAR PHP ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
   ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR SO PER RAP 18Z SOUNDING. A WEAK
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER LOW OVER SWRN WY MAY ALSO
   BE CONTRIBUTING TO UVV IN THIS AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE
   LOW.
   
   ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL/NERN SD
   WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW...THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND ABSENCE OF DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT.
   HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER JET EXIT REGION MOVING NEWD
   THROUGH WRN KS AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS MAY AID IN INITIATION
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE
   CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD AND SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   43479846 43830115 45480103 45529704 45429523 44559467
   43759493 43609567 43539719

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS...CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122231Z - 122330Z
   
   ...WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEB...INTO
   PORTIONS OF NCNTRL KS...
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING OVER NEB AS SPEED MAX
   APPROACHES THE CNTRL PLAINS.  LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A
   BROAD ZONE OF MOISTENING AT MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS SERN CO/WRN
   KS...WHICH WILL SOON OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE IN NEB.  IN
   ADDITION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE AND MINIMAL
   INHIBITION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   39249982 40459945 42229973 42769777 39669801

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN SD...FAR NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA...AND
   SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 778...
   
   VALID 122347Z - 130115Z
   
   THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
   ERN/SERN SD EWD INTO SWRN MN. ADDITION WW MAY BE REQUIRED DURING
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ENEWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF SFC LOW
   EXTENDING FROM ERN KINGSBURY COUNTY SD ENEWD TO YELLOW MEDICINE
   COUNTY MN. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS...INCLUDING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS PER FSD
   88D. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STORMS ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO PROCESS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR...WHERE
   MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING
   WIND PROFILE IS EVIDENT PER FSD VAD WIND PROFILE...WITH 0-1KM SRH
   AROUND 150 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN SD EWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN...WITH
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST AND
   SW OF FSD. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA
   LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...
   
   43769889 44839888 45489329 43319340 42689886

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/SERN MN/SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 131619Z - 131815Z



SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. WW
MAY BE REQUIRED BY 13/18Z.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN IA INTO ADJACENT SERN MN AND SWRN
WI...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY MSP SSWWD TO NEAR
MHK. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THIS
REGION...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS
WILL OCCUR.

THOUGH MORNING RAOBS INDICATE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 800 TO
700 MB LAYER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV INVOF FRONT/LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- ENHANCED BY WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD ATTM
ACROSS ERN NEB -- SHOULD COMBINE WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING TO WEAKEN CAP. THEREFORE...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND/OR EVOLVE FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS
THE MO/IA BORDER...AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN IA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF SERN MN/SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT ABOVE
SSWLYS AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK DIRECTIONAL AND MODERATE SPEED SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL STORMS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES.
THEREFORE...AS ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASES...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS AREA.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 131855Z - 132100Z



SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION. NEW
WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THIS
AREA...AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS IA. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/...AND AS UVV INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF VORT MAX
NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SWRN MN...EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...RECENT BLR
/BLUE RIVER WI/ PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO
50 KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS. RESULTING WIND PROFILE /40 KT 0-6
KM SHEAR/ IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES...AND
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...IT APPEARS
THAT NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / WRN MO / NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 131917Z - 132145Z



ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z.

INITIAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER FAR ERN KS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD
AND IS MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS OF 19Z. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO WRN MO.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE POTENT STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER
W...IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
STRONGER NEAR THE FRONT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND EVEN
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH NLY SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING LONGER 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS.
THE PROBLEM FOR TORNADOES WILL BE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES W OF
THE FRONT...UNDERNEATH A CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS RESIDENCE TIME
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WINDOW FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY APPEARS
BRIEF. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX / FAR SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 131950Z - 132145Z



STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SEVERE HAIL OR WIND REPORTS ARE LIKELY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM JUST
NW OF CDS TO LBB. STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE
FRONT...WITH MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG MUCAPE. ALTHOUGH JAYTON PROFILER SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW NEAR 10
KTS BELOW 4KM...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THAT HEIGHT WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 09/13/2005

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/SERN MN/CENTRAL AND SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 781...782...

VALID 132025Z - 132200Z



CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF WW 781/INTO WW 782.

LARGE AREA OF MULTICELL CONVECTION -- WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/SEVERE STORMS -- CONTINUES MOVING NEWD THROUGH VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 TO 3500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ OVER NERN IA
AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SWRN WI AND SERN MN. STORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST
AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL MN...WITHIN
MODERATELY-STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR
COMBINATION ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE.

FURTHER...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL
WI...AND SWD INTO FAR ERN IA/NWRN IL...LIKELY ALONG DIFFUSE/REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER -- BUT STILL SUFFICIENT --
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW ACROSS FAR NRN IL/E CENTRAL AND SERN WI.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 132355Z - 140130Z
   
   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NWRN LOWER MI BY 01Z.  WW MAY
   BE REQUIRED...
   
   WELL DEFINED VORT CENTER HAS EVOLVED IN CONJUNCTION WITH MCS OVER
   CNTRL WI.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD AT
   ROUGHLY 40-45KT ACROSS LAKE MI.  RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST THIS
   CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN WI...AND LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP DOWNSTREAM TO MAINTAIN ONGOING
   ACTIVITY.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAKENING
   INSTABILITY THAT SQUALL LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.
   HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS HAS YET TO COMMENCE.  WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED IF CONVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 09/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   45008616 45828429 44968302 43498425 43238663

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141157Z - 141300Z



TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR ERN NC.

REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED HURRICANE OPHELIA
CONTINUING TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE SERN NC COAST AS INDICATED BY
LATEST TPC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. NRN MOST RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SAMPSON TO BEAUFORT COUNTIES NC AND
THEN ESEWD OVER THE OUTER BANKS NEAR HSE. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE HAD WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION. AREA VADS
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE
APPROACH OF OPHELIA. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTERACT WITH A FRICTIONALLY INDUCED INVERTED/COASTAL
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE CENTER OF OPHELIA TO NEAR ILM TO
30 W ECG.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789...

VALID 141251Z - 141345Z



THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 789.

THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS KS/OK ATTM AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS OK AND SRN KS. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.