sweetpea wrote:chris_fit wrote:Pressure now 985. FL Lvl Winds at 66knts.
How do you convert knots to mph? Thanks Debbie
1 knot = 1.15078030303 mph
so knots x 1.1507 = mph
Tropical Storm Ophelia
Moderator: S2k Moderators
cinlfla wrote:Thanks Larrywx for posting the image.
You're welcome. Keep in mind that this ECMWF model run is an outlier as compared to all of the other latest model runs. It apparently takes a direct route to NE FL with no intervening loop offshore the SE US. I'm assuming this is because it has less of a trough to the north and instead more ridging, which may be a result of a warm bias in the model:
500 mb heights day 3 (near landfall time):
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
OuterBanker wrote:OK, this is it. I, and no one else I know of has time for this.
Ophelia, you really need to make up your mind.
It's time for Dyn-O-Mat to put up or shut up. You have a hurricane that isn't going anywhere, it's just sitting there waiting for you to throw out the welcome Mat (intended pun). You can be a hero and really show the world what you have.
Maybe I'll call Tony Soprano and have her sleep with the fishes.
Anyway, the Gulf, Florida, and the East Coast (especially the Carolinas) want no part of you, GO AWAY.
I don't know about you, but I feel better.
Sometimes just ranting makes you feel better.
DISCLAIMER: I'm quite sure that no one at storm 2k endorses anything that is stated in this post. Furthermore, if you based any kind of decision on anything in this post you need to be locked away. Request a separate room please.
And to ride the coat-tails of the disclaimer; in my opinion; your neck of the woods, NC/SC; may very end up being the host for Big O and probably only as a glancing blow on the west side of her.
I just don't see this choosing NE Fl, SE Ga.
Same disclaimer applies to this as above!!
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Jim Hughes
- Category 3
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- Location: Martinsburg West Virginia
Jevo wrote:yeah well i have a big 1 finger salute for ophelia.. she messed up my close on my house tomorrow..
i hope you suck in a huge gulp of dry air and die like the little@#$!@# you are Ophelia
I'd be ticked off also but than again wouldn't you rather her make up her mind first before you put your John Hancock on a mortgage?
Jim
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chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2005
...Ophelia becomes the seventh hurricane of the season...still not
moving...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
southward to Sebastian Inlet Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast of
Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast Florida
coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida...and the
southeastern United States coast...should monitor the progress of
this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 28.6 north... longitude 79.5 west or about 70 miles
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.
Ophelia is stationary and a slow northeastward motion may occur over
the next 12 to 24 hours.
National Weather Service Doppler radar and Air Force hurricane
hunter observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a
category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some increase
in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles...130 km.
The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to
3 inches across portions of central and northern Florida.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...28.6 N... 79.5 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central
pressure... 985 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2005
...Ophelia becomes the seventh hurricane of the season...still not
moving...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
southward to Sebastian Inlet Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast of
Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast Florida
coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida...and the
southeastern United States coast...should monitor the progress of
this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 28.6 north... longitude 79.5 west or about 70 miles
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.
Ophelia is stationary and a slow northeastward motion may occur over
the next 12 to 24 hours.
National Weather Service Doppler radar and Air Force hurricane
hunter observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a
category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some increase
in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles...130 km.
The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to
3 inches across portions of central and northern Florida.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...28.6 N... 79.5 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central
pressure... 985 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2005
WSR-88D Doppler radar velocities of 80-85 kt are showing up in the
southern eyewall of Ophelia. These wind speeds are at an elevation
of about 6500 feet. Using a Standard vertical profile of wind
speed determined from GPS dropsondes in tropical cyclones...this
corresponds to at least 65 kt for the surface wind. The Air Force
hurricane hunters measured a central pressure of 985 mb by
dropsonde and the drop had surface winds near 15 kt...suggesting
that the minimum pressure might be a little lower than that value.
Based on these data...Ophelia is upgraded to a hurricane on this
advisory. The hurricane has well-defined upper-level outflow in
all quadrants except the southeast. Vertical shear is expected to
remain modest...in the 10-15 kt range...but SHIPS diagnoses a
rather stable lapse rate in the environment. Since the outflow
looks impressive...and assuming that slow-moving Ophelia is not
significantly affected by cooler upwelled waters...additional
strengthening is forecast. The wind speed forecast in this
advisory is between SHIPS and the FSU superensemble forecast.
Ophelia continues trapped between two mid-level high pressure
areas...and remains nearly stationary. Steering currents are
expected to remain weak for the next few days...but later in the
forecast period...the global models are showing a building
mid-level ridge over the United States mid-Atlantic coast. The
GFDL model is no longer an outlier in showing Ophelia turning
westward by 4-5 days...however it is by far the most aggressive one
doing so. The dynamical consensus forecast shows a clockwise loop
but does not take Ophelia nearly so far west as the GFDL. Since
the track models have been flip-flopping over the past several
runs...I feel it is best to take a conservative approach and only
show a slight westward movement late in the period. We need to see
whether subsequent model runs are more consistent in showing the
westward track at the longer range.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended a little to the south
along the Florida East Coast due to an expension of the wind field
and a strengthening of the circulation...and not because of any
expected southward component of motion.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/2100z 28.6n 79.5w 65 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 29.0n 79.2w 70 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 29.5n 78.7w 70 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 30.0n 78.0w 75 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 30.7n 77.2w 75 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 31.0n 76.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 30.0n 76.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 13/1800z 30.0n 77.0w 80 kt
$$
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2005
WSR-88D Doppler radar velocities of 80-85 kt are showing up in the
southern eyewall of Ophelia. These wind speeds are at an elevation
of about 6500 feet. Using a Standard vertical profile of wind
speed determined from GPS dropsondes in tropical cyclones...this
corresponds to at least 65 kt for the surface wind. The Air Force
hurricane hunters measured a central pressure of 985 mb by
dropsonde and the drop had surface winds near 15 kt...suggesting
that the minimum pressure might be a little lower than that value.
Based on these data...Ophelia is upgraded to a hurricane on this
advisory. The hurricane has well-defined upper-level outflow in
all quadrants except the southeast. Vertical shear is expected to
remain modest...in the 10-15 kt range...but SHIPS diagnoses a
rather stable lapse rate in the environment. Since the outflow
looks impressive...and assuming that slow-moving Ophelia is not
significantly affected by cooler upwelled waters...additional
strengthening is forecast. The wind speed forecast in this
advisory is between SHIPS and the FSU superensemble forecast.
Ophelia continues trapped between two mid-level high pressure
areas...and remains nearly stationary. Steering currents are
expected to remain weak for the next few days...but later in the
forecast period...the global models are showing a building
mid-level ridge over the United States mid-Atlantic coast. The
GFDL model is no longer an outlier in showing Ophelia turning
westward by 4-5 days...however it is by far the most aggressive one
doing so. The dynamical consensus forecast shows a clockwise loop
but does not take Ophelia nearly so far west as the GFDL. Since
the track models have been flip-flopping over the past several
runs...I feel it is best to take a conservative approach and only
show a slight westward movement late in the period. We need to see
whether subsequent model runs are more consistent in showing the
westward track at the longer range.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended a little to the south
along the Florida East Coast due to an expension of the wind field
and a strengthening of the circulation...and not because of any
expected southward component of motion.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/2100z 28.6n 79.5w 65 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 29.0n 79.2w 70 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 29.5n 78.7w 70 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 30.0n 78.0w 75 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 30.7n 77.2w 75 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 31.0n 76.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 30.0n 76.0w 80 kt
120hr VT 13/1800z 30.0n 77.0w 80 kt
$$
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Age: 36
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z THU SEP 08 2005
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.0N 79.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 79.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z THU SEP 08 2005
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.5W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.0N 79.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 79.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
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aprilflower
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Andrew92
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Jim Hughes wrote:Jevo wrote:yeah well i have a big 1 finger salute for ophelia.. she messed up my close on my house tomorrow..
i hope you suck in a huge gulp of dry air and die like the little@#$!@# you are Ophelia
I'd be ticked off also but than again wouldn't you rather her make up her mind first before you put your John Hancock on a mortgage?
Jim
I dunno, she's behaving like a typical woman. This could take a while for her to make up her mind. Oh well, she's at least decided to become a hurricane.
But where's she going? Is she going out to sea, is she gonna strike? Where will she strike if she does? She might as well be at the mall.....
-Andrew92
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Now borderline CAT 4 shows up in the intensity forecast, news just keep getting better. 
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