BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

[Shoshana]

1999 Brett and 1957 Audrey were both Cat 4. But Audrey was a killer - 400-600 people were killed by the storm surge.

[f5]

That dark red up there by the Texas coast sends chills down my spine

[alicia-w]

Brett was a Cat 4 or something..We were just lucky it hit in a very unpopulated area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999bret.html

everything i read says 100kts at landfall,making it a cat 3.

[southerngale]

Yeah, Bret did reach cat.4 status, but made landfall as a cat.3

[susan]

So now we see it can happen...A storm out of BOC can turn into a monster..Cat 3 or 4, either way will mess up someone...

[apocalypt-flyer]

If this takes a steady NNW track, we might have a problem in a few days.

[jasons2k]

Well it sure doesn't seem like it's doing anything today. I guess we'll see if it has another diurnal pulse tonight and maybe tomorrow it'll have something to work with.

[Houstonia]

Hello...where do you think everyone went? To Texas...At least NOLA is pretty much evacuated..Can you imagine what problems we would have in the Harris county area if we were forced to evacuate????? We have 1/2 of NOLA here who would also have to evacuate..

Yeah and the Astrodome, Reliant, GRB are designated evacuation shelters for Houston.

I tell y'all one thing for darn sure... I ain't going to no SPORTS ARENA if I evacuate!!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 8, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria...located about 1070 miles west of the Azores...on Hurricane
Nate...located about 170 miles east of Bermuda...and on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ophelia...centered about 70 miles east-northeast
of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated
with a broad and weak surface low pressure area. There has been
little change in the organization of this system over the past
several hours. However some slow development is possible over the
next couple of days...as long as the system remains over water.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
Forecaster Beven

[jasons2k]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 8, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria...located about 1070 miles west of the Azores...on Hurricane
Nate...located about 170 miles east of Bermuda...and on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ophelia...centered about 70 miles east-northeast
of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated
with a broad and weak surface low pressure area. There has been
little change in the organization of this system over the past
several hours. However some slow development is possible over the
next couple of days...as long as the system remains over water.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
Forecaster Beven

Beven must have read my post earlier j/k

[susan]

We may wake up and the storm will have gone "poof"....

[Houstonia]

We may wake up and the storm will have gone "poof"....

"poof" as in disappear?

or "poof" as in I'm now a cat 5 monster?

When it comes to tropical systems, "poof" can be both bad and good...

[Kludge]

Well it sure doesn't seem like it's doing anything today. I guess we'll see if it has another diurnal pulse tonight and maybe tomorrow it'll have something to work with.

In the last few frames, it does appear to be starting another diurinal pop. I suspect 3 pops will be the charm, and we'll have a depression by Saturday. The only question will be where has it moved by then...

[wxwatcher91]

correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that in S2K termonology "poof" refers to "gone" and it is "boom" that refers to cat 5 hurricane.

[LaBreeze]

Audrey was in 1957, but I remember experiencing her like it was yesterday. The rising water and the wind were ferocious - and she struck at night when we couldn't see but only feel and hear.

[GalvestonDuck]

correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that in S2K termonology "poof" refers to "gone" and it is "boom" that refers to cat 5 hurricane.

I never really got "bomb." Movies that bomb are the ones that die at the box office. But a hurricane that bombs is one that strengthens. "Explodes" makes sense to me. But as a movie buff, "bomb" always makes me do a double take (er, double think?).

[Brent]

There isn't even an invest up yet...

Looks like there would be if the NHC thought development was imminent.

[wxwatcher91]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090915
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...ON HURRICANE NATE...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...
LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DIMINISHING...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

I think it's bout time to lock this thread up

[susan]

"poof" as in the above message meaning the storm went bye bye.....

[TexasStooge]

Well, for the past few days, I've seen blobs pop up east of Mexico, yet they dissipate after a couple of hours, so it's not a real threat for a moment, but we'll still need to keep an eye on it.