NOLA Had Evac Plan - Did Nobody Read it?

[JenBayles]

http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=26

It's long, and typical bureaucrat-ese, but looking back on the whole mess, I can't see where anybody ever ready the dam thing....

[x-y-no]

I, for one, still can't judge just how much of this plan was followed and how much not.

One interesting contradiction I spotted in this plan ...

Section 2. II. says in part:

Slow developing weather conditions (primarily hurricane) will create increased readiness culminating in an evacuation order 24 hours (12 daylight hours) prior to predicted landfall.

That seems pretty late to me, and in fact Mayor Nagin didn't miss that mark by very much.

OTOH, Section 2. IV. A. says:

A. Evacuation Time Requirements

Using information developed as part of the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force and other research, the City of New Orleans has established a maximum acceptable hurricane evacuation time standard for a Category 3 storm event of 72 hours. This is based on clearance time or is the time required to clear all vehicles evacuating in response to a hurricane situation from area roadways. Clearance time begins when the first evacuating vehicle enters the road network and ends when the last evacuating vehicle reaches its destination.

Clearance time also includes the time required by evacuees to secure their homes and prepare to leave (mobilization time); the time spent by evacuees traveling along the road network (travel time); and the time spent by evacuees waiting along the road network due to traffic congestion (delay time). Clearance time does not refer to the time a single vehicle spends traveling on the road network. Evacuation notices or orders will be issued during three stages prior to gale force winds making landfall.

> Precautionary Evacuation Notice: 72 hours or less

> Special Needs Evacuation Order: 8-12 hours after Precautionary Evacuation Notice issued

> General Evacuation Notice: 48 hours or less

Which seems to imply an earlier evacuation order.

In actual fact, Mayor Nagin and Gov. Blanco were telling people to prepare on Friday, were urging evacuation on Saturday, and ordered mandatory evac Sunday morning.

So it appears they were somewhat late relative to the plan (although one might note that the quoted language above anticipates this by saying "or less" with regard to each time period) but not as much late as we have all perceived.

One thing I also note is that it seems there should have been no question of the Mayor's authority to order a mandatory evac, given this passage in section 2. III. A.

The authority to order the evacuation of residents threatened by an approaching hurricane is conferred to the Governor by Louisiana Statute. The Governor is granted the power to direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of the population from a stricken or threatened area within the State, if he deems this action necessary for the preservation of life or other disaster mitigation, response or recovery. The same power to order an evacuation conferred upon the Governor is also delegated to each political subdivision of the State by Executive Order. This authority empowers the chief elected official of New Orleans, the Mayor of New Orleans, to order the evacuation of the parish residents threatened by an approaching hurricane.

[HumanCookie]

I, for one, still can't judge just how much of this plan was followed and how much not.

One interesting contradiction I spotted in this plan ...

Section 2. II. says in part:

Slow developing weather conditions (primarily hurricane) will create increased readiness culminating in an evacuation order 24 hours (12 daylight hours) prior to predicted landfall.

That seems pretty late to me, and in fact Mayor Nagin didn't miss that mark by very much.

OTOH, Section 2. IV. A. says:

A. Evacuation Time Requirements

Using information developed as part of the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force and other research, the City of New Orleans has established a maximum acceptable hurricane evacuation time standard for a Category 3 storm event of 72 hours. This is based on clearance time or is the time required to clear all vehicles evacuating in response to a hurricane situation from area roadways. Clearance time begins when the first evacuating vehicle enters the road network and ends when the last evacuating vehicle reaches its destination.

Clearance time also includes the time required by evacuees to secure their homes and prepare to leave (mobilization time); the time spent by evacuees traveling along the road network (travel time); and the time spent by evacuees waiting along the road network due to traffic congestion (delay time). Clearance time does not refer to the time a single vehicle spends traveling on the road network. Evacuation notices or orders will be issued during three stages prior to gale force winds making landfall.

> Precautionary Evacuation Notice: 72 hours or less

> Special Needs Evacuation Order: 8-12 hours after Precautionary Evacuation Notice issued

> General Evacuation Notice: 48 hours or less

Which seems to imply an earlier evacuation order.

In actual fact, Mayor Nagin and Gov. Blanco were telling people to prepare on Friday, were urging evacuation on Saturday, and ordered mandatory evac Sunday morning.

So it appears they were somewhat late relative to the plan (although one might note that the quoted language above anticipates this by saying "or less" with regard to each time period) but not as much late as we have all perceived.

One thing I also note is that it seems there should have been no question of the Mayor's authority to order a mandatory evac, given this passage in section 2. III. A.

The authority to order the evacuation of residents threatened by an approaching hurricane is conferred to the Governor by Louisiana Statute. The Governor is granted the power to direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of the population from a stricken or threatened area within the State, if he deems this action necessary for the preservation of life or other disaster mitigation, response or recovery. The same power to order an evacuation conferred upon the Governor is also delegated to each political subdivision of the State by Executive Order. This authority empowers the chief elected official of New Orleans, the Mayor of New Orleans, to order the evacuation of the parish residents threatened by an approaching hurricane.

Did the Governor execute an order? NO. That is where the legal mumbo jumbo came into play.

Governor Blanco's Announcement on Hurricane Evacuation

Aug. 28, 2005
“I want to thank the citizens of the Greater New Orleans area for the heroic, serious and courteous manner in which they have conducted themselves in the past several days.

“While no evacuation of this kind is perfect and I know that the citizens of the region are under great stress and strain, I am thankful to say that we’ve successfully evacuated hundreds of thousands of citizens in the last 24 hours.

“State officials, working with local and parish officials and officials in Mississippi, have worked hard to maintain a safe evacuation process.

“While many people are still on the roads trying to get out of the city, trafffic patterns indicate that everyone who has the ability to leave New Orleans will be able to evacuate by this evening.

“Several critical announcments must be made at this time.

1.Highway 61 will soon be closed to allow Jefferson Parish officials enough time to lay sandbags to protect the city of Kenner.

2.Also, at the State of Mississippi’s request, because of their vulnerable position on the eastern side of the storm, I-10 east bound at the Slidell I-10/I-12 interchange is closed. No traffic is being allowed to travel east on I-10 past that interchange at Slidell.

“The State Police are continuing to monitor traffic conditions. Traffic pressure on I-10 West is easing at the entry points in Orleans and Jefferson. Tropical storm winds are expected to reach the area earlier than first predicted.

“Therefore, in consultation with parish officials in Orleans and Jefferson, at this time we have stopped loading contraflow lanes. Normal traffic flow will resume.
“This does not mean that the evacuation has ended. I repeat – we are not ending evacuation. With the exception of Highway 61 and I-10 eastbound at Slidell, all evacuation routes out of the city will remain open for citizens desiring to leave this evening. Contraflow loading has ended, but evacuation has not.
“We are ending contraflow loading for the following reasons:
1.Traffic conditions are improving in the New Orleans/Jefferson region.
2.The need to give DOTD and local officials time to move cones, barrells and other equipment which might become flying missiles in high-wind conditions.
3.To respect our neighbors in Mississippi who must give their personnel adequate time to make arrangements to move their equipment along their highway system.
4.The need to give emergency personnel and relief workers more flexibility to get in and out of the city in the hours leading up to the storm’s landfall.
“To those citizens who have the ability to leave, I urge you to leave now. If you cannot leave the city, I urge you to go to one of the city-sponsored shelters in the New Orleans area.
“I am gravely concerned about reports coming in regarding those who are choosing not to evacuation. I strongly urge you to get to safety while there is still time to do so.
“I am very grateful for the way this evacuation was conducted. I recognize that it is impossible to accomplish this without some frustration. But again, I want to again thank the citizens of the New Orleans area for the outstanding way you have conducted yourselves in the past 24 hours.
“We will continue to monitor the continuing evacuation during the late afternoon and evening hours and I can assure those evacuating that we will continue to have adequate State Police and other public safety personnel on hand to maintain the best possible flow of traffic.
“I urge you to continue driving safely, protecting yourselves and your family members. I urge the citizens of Louisiana to join us in prayer so that no lives are lost because of Hurricane Katrina.

“I want to thank the following people: President Bush for his concern; Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi and his outstanding team of professionals; the many governors who have called offering help;

“The parish presidents, mayors and elected officials of southeast Louisiana who have cooperated magnificently; the emergency personnel all across the state; FEMA’s presence and support; the news media for delivering information to our people.

“This evacuation has been challenging, but even greater challenges face us in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. All Louisiana citizens stand ready to support the affected citizens of southeast Louisiana.”

http://gov.louisiana.gov/index.asp

And here's Mayor Nagin's throuh his Office of Communications.

City Of New Orleans
Mayors Office of Communications
1300 Perdido Street, Suite 2E04
New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
504-658-4940

C. Ray Nagin
MAYOR

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 27, 2005

Mayor Nagin Urges Citizens to Prepare For Hurricane Katrina

(New Orleans, LA) In response to the potential threat of Hurricane Katrina, Mayor C. Ray Nagin is urging all citizens to begin preparations now for the coming storm. Mayor Nagin will hold the next press briefing at 5 p.m. today in the Mayor’s Press Room, second floor of City Hall.

“Although the track could change, forecasters believe Hurricane Katrina will affect New Orleans,” said Mayor Nagin. “We may call for a voluntary evacuation later this afternoon or tomorrow morning to coincide with the instatement of contraflow. This will give people more options to leave the area. However, citizens need to begin preparing now so they will be ready to leave when necessary. Do everything to prepare for a regular hurricane, but treat this one differently because it is headed our way. This is not a test.”

The Mayor also recommended that residents of Algiers, the Lower Ninth Ward and low-lying areas begin evacuating now.

Gov. Blanco also urged citizens to take the storm seriously. “We can restore property, but we cannot restore lives,” she said.

Mayor Nagin is working with Gov. Kathleen Blanco and other City, local and State officials are watching the storm’s path and working together to make decisions that affect citizens. Gov. Blanco has declared a state of emergency in Louisiana, which provides city government with additional authority and improved access to resources needed when responding to elevated threats, such as natural disasters.

A state of emergency has been declared for the City of New Orleans. Citizens are advised to:
• Fill their cars with gas. Tolls have been suspended on roadways.
• Remove potential debris from their yards (including lawn furniture, potted plants, loose tree branches, etc.)
• Board windows and glass doors
• Make sure that nearby catch basins are clear of leaves or trash
• Stock up on bottled water, batteries, and non-perishable food items
• Check on family, friends and neighbors, especially the elderly, to make sure everyone has an evacuation plan
• Make provisions for pets. Shelters and many hotels do not accept pets.
-MORE-


“The key is being prepared for the event,” said Mayor Nagin. “We’re doing everything we can to make sure our city is safe.”

Shelters for Citizens with Special Medical Needs

There are two shelters for people with special medical needs open in the state. Citizens should call prior to going to the shelters. The shelter in Alexandria can be reached at (800) 841-5778; the number for Monroe’s shelter is (866) 280-7287. If it becomes necessary, other shelters will be opened in various cities. The Superdome will be opened as a refuge of last resort for special needs patients if it becomes necessary. All individuals may have one caretaker.

Anyone planning to spend time in a shelter should bring three to four days’ worth of food, sleeping gear, and medical supplies including oxygen, medicine and batteries for any necessary devices. No weapons or bulky items are allowed in any shelters.

New Orleans EMS is responding to medical emergencies only. For non-emergency transportation needs, citizens should contact local non-emergency ambulance providers:

Acadian: (504) 366-0911
Lifeguard: (504) 214-1911
Guardian: (504) 818-2600
A-Med: (504) 362-9490
Care: (504) 367-4231
On-Call: (504) 866-0481

Closings
New Orleans Public Schools will be closed Monday, August 29, 2005. All NOPS activities scheduled for this weekend have been cancelled.

New Orleans Public Libraries will close at 3 p.m. today, Saturday, August 27, 2005, and remain closed through Monday, August 29, 2005.

The City of New Orleans will be issuing additional advisories as the storm progresses. Citizens are asked to remain alert, monitor news stories and be prepared to respond promptly to any public safety advisories.


--END--

ttp://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?port ... temid=3139

[LAwxrgal]

I think the problem was the evacuation plan was so long and complicated that most of the people who really needed this information either 1) didn't have access to it or 2) they were unable to read it. In the poorer areas illiteracy is a big problem. For some people, they just didn't think it would happen to them, so they didn't think it was important to know. Sad.

A lot of people won't admit they can't read, there's still a lot of shame involved with that.

[Mattie]

Interesting historical reading - article from the Wall Street Journal

http://interactive.wsj.com/dividends/retrieve.cgi?id=/text/wsjie/data/SB112553531194328599.djm&d2hconverter=display-d2h&template=dividends

New Orleans

By JOEL KOTKIN

To the water-soaked citizenry of New Orleans, short term issues -- water, power, even surviving -- are no doubt paramount today. But over the coming weeks, months and years, this city must come to grips with issues that have determined whether urban areas thrive despite tragedy, or simply decline in its wake.
[New Orleans]

Like the Mississippi itself, cities have risen and fallen through history. Herodotus noted in his own time, the 5th century B.C., that "human prosperity never abides long in the same place." Many of the cities that were "great" in his time were small in the recent past, he noted, while many leading cities of his youth had shrunk into relative insignificance. Herodotus considered understanding the causes of this rise and fall to be among the major callings of historians. Identifying why a city prospers or not over time remains highly relevant, not only for tragedy-struck New Orleans, but for virtually all Western cities in the age of terror.

Current intellectual fashion tells us that the crisis in New Orleans stems primarily from human mismanagement of the environment. Yet blaming global warming or poor river management practices will not bring the city back to its condition last week, much less return it to the greatness that defined it in its 19th-century heyday. The key to understanding the fate of cities lies in knowing that the greatest long-term damage comes not from nature or foreign attacks, but often from self-infliction. Cities are more than physical or natural constructs; they are essentially the products of human will, faith and determination.

A city whose residents have given up on their future or who lose interest in it are unlikely to respond to great challenges. Decaying cities throughout history -- Rome in the 5th century, Venice in the 18th -- both suffered from a decayed sense of civic purpose and prime. In this circumstance, even civic leaders tend to seek out their own comfortable perches within the city or choose to leave it entirely to its poorer, less mobile residents. This has been occurring for decades in the American rustbelt -- think of Detroit, Cleveland and St. Louis -- or to the depopulated cores in old industrial regions in the British Midlands, Germany and Russia.

Happily, urban history also contains examples of cities that have rebounded from natural and other devastation, sometimes far worse than that wrought on New Orleans. Carthage, purposely destroyed and planted with salt by its Roman conquerors, later re-emerged as a prominent urban center, becoming the home of St. Augustine, author of "City of God." Modern times, too, offer examples which can inspire New Orleans residents. Tokyo and London rose from near total devastation in 1945. Perhaps even more remarkable, albeit on a smaller scale, has been the successful rebuilding of Hiroshima into an industrial powerhouse and one of Japan's most pleasant seaside cities.

Americans, too, have shown how to improve their cities after natural disasters. The 1905 San Francisco earthquake and fire leveled most of that city, leading some to believe that the future center of the region would be across the bay in Oakland. Yet the ingenuity and ambition of its citizens would not allow this to happen. Led by A.E. Giannini, founding father of the Bank of America, a somewhat overgrown gold rush Deadwood emerged by the 1920s as something closer to the "Paris of the Pacific."

And then there's L.A. Although the 1994 earthquake caused $16 billion in damages, the city, under the leadership of Mayor Richard Riordan, managed the temblor with remarkable efficiency. Perhaps most remarkable, the very city that suffered the worst urban rioting in American history two years earlier managed the post-earthquake chaos with little lawlessness and political discord. As a result, the great natural calamity -- many in the east proclaimed this to be the last nail in the long-anticipated L.A. coffin -- became, instead, a cause for civic revitalization. The funds poured into the city for rebuilding also helped jumpstart the city's economy, then reeling from the decline of the aerospace industry.

This constitutes one part of the opportunity for New Orleans. Rebuilding will bring in billions of dollars, a surge in relatively high-paying construction jobs and perhaps funding to improve the city's devastated infrastructure, including its levee system.
* * *

Will New Orleans meet this challenge? The key may lie not so much in calculating the amount of money sent from Washington, but whether the events of this week will transform attitudes toward growth, economic diversification and commitment to the overall public good. On the surface, there is reason to be skeptical. Once the premier city of the south and commercial center of the Gulf, New Orleans has been losing ground for the better part of a century. It has surrendered its primacy to other, newer cities -- Miami and Houston -- which have fed off the "animal spirits" of entrepreneurs and had the foresight to invest in basic infrastructure.

Demographics tell much of the story. In 1920, New Orleans' population was nearly three times that of Houston and nine times Miami's. It was the primary southern destination for European and Caribbean immigrants. Now, both the Houston and Miami areas -- despite their own ample experience with disasters of the natural as well as the manmade variety -- have long ago surpassed New Orleans, with populations more than three times larger. During the '90s, the Miami and Houston areas grew almost six times faster than greater New Orleans, and flourished as major destinations for immigrants, particularly from Latin America.

These newcomers have helped transform Miami and Houston into primary centers for trade, investment and services, from finance and accounting to medical care, for the entire Caribbean basin. They have started businesses, staffed factories, and become players in civic life. Houston has taken over completely as the dominant center for the energy industry, once a key high-wage employer in the New Orleans region.

Instead of serving as a major commercial and entrepreneurial center, New Orleans' dominant industry lies not in creating its future but selling its past, much of which now sits underwater. Tourism defines contemporary New Orleans' economy more than its still-large port, or its remaining industry, or its energy production. Although there is nothing wrong, per se, in being a tourist town, it is not an industry that attracts high-wage jobs; and tends to create a highly bifurcated social structure. This can be seen in New Orleans' perennially high rates of underemployment, crime and poverty. The murder rate is 10 times the national average.

Perhaps worse, there seems to be some basic hostility in New Orleans to the very idea of an economic renaissance and growth. When I published rankings of the best cities for business for Inc. Magazine last year, New Orleans' middling performance created consternation at one local daily newspaper -- for not being bad enough. Such negative attitudes may pose the biggest problem as the city begins to rebuild. Rather than imagine anything better, the temptation among some may well be to take the path of least resistance, restoring or reconstructing past icons in order to salvage the tourism-based economy.

A different, and more promising, approach might be to consider an "attitude adjustment." Instead of settling into its old role as a destination for conventioneers, masqueraders and weekend revelers, perhaps the city's leaders can think about reviving the entrepreneurial spirit that made New Orleans a lure to the ambitious in its most glorious past.

Mr. Kotkin, an Irvine Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, is the author of "The City: A Global History" (Modern Library, 2005).

[Miss Mary]

I for one need summaries and bullets. In other words I need the Cliff Notes version. A short summary of evacuation plans might have gotten thru to people?

This is just the way I learn. If you hand me a document like this, I immediately begin to skim it. And look for a highlighter, noting main points and steps to follow.

Mary

[mf_dolphin]

They were actually working on CD/DVD's to distribute to people with emergency instructions etc. Only problem they weren't going to do it until SEPT! How's that for good planning and execution?

[oneness]

I for one need summaries and bullets. In other words I need the Cliff Notes version. A short summary of evacuation plans might have gotten thru to people?

This is just the way I learn. If you hand me a document like this, I immediately begin to skim it. And look for a highlighter, noting main points and steps to follow.

Mary

Wait until you see the final report to Congress Mary, you'll need a doctorate from some esoteric guild, 43 months to read it, plus a complementry pharmacological lobotomy to regain composure.

*eyes glaze over*

[oneness]

They were actually working on CD/DVD's to distribute to people with emergency instructions etc. Only problem they weren't going to do it until SEPT! How's that for good planning and execution?

As I remember someone mentioned several days back, the 17th St canal was to be 'hurricane proofed' in Sept as well.

[Downdraft]

They had an EAP in place. The EAP details evacuation of the city pretty clearly whether you agree with it's timelines or not. If that's the case what's this horse dung the Mayor came up with about debating if he had the legal authority to evacuate the city? Of course he did!
Now we have the Red Cross and the State pointing fingers at each other over care of the people in the Superdome. If I read the accusations right the Red Cross was ready to mass care the evacuees at the Superdome but the State officials felt if we keep them thirsty and hungry it will make it easier to convince them to evacuate. Well did it? No, we all know what it turned the Superdome into. No food, no water, no law enforcement, no military and now a little girl laying in a locker with her throat cut. If I was them I'd be blaming George Bush too.