Tropical Storm Ophelia

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Eyes2theSkies
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#701 Postby Eyes2theSkies » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:20 pm

just wobbling folks I wouldn't read to much into it
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Nimbus
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#702 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:25 pm

It may take a couple model runs with Ophelia initialized as a hurricane and with new ridge data.

She should be dragged east some by the departing trough but looking at the upper level wind chart :roll: the ridge to her west seems to be moving east and building.

A stronger storm should respond to the upper level winds more.
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#703 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:31 pm

Nimbus wrote:It may take a couple model runs with Ophelia initialized as a hurricane and with new ridge data.

She should be dragged east some by the departing trough but looking at the upper level wind chart :roll: the ridge to her west seems to be moving east and building.

A stronger storm should respond to the upper level winds more.
Being stationary, upwelling should keep her in check :wink:
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SouthFloridawx
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#704 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:32 pm

unfortunately it is in the gulf stream which is moving warm water along the coast. I don't think she have too much trouble getting some fuel.
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BensonTCwatcher
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#705 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:50 pm

...smart remark deleted as the reason it was here was deleted
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rainband

#706 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:51 pm

Posts deleted. This was not accurate information :wink: While it was funny it was misleading to some... I suppose.
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#707 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:52 pm

We should watch the buoys for clues.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
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#708 Postby greeng13 » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:54 pm

webke wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:thing is, the GFS has been utterly worthless for much of the season

I'm still waiting for Katrina to miss Florida to the east and hit SC


Since I live in SC where do you think it may head, I know you cannot be exact but the Northern of Southern part.


if you notice...he wrote KATRINA which is the hurricane that destroyed NOLA, Biloxi, Gulfport, et. al. We are currently discussing OPHELIA. The reference was to the GFS model which predicted that KATRINA would miss Florida and hit SC (which we all know did not happen)
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#709 Postby Rainband » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:56 pm

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 10a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2005



...Ophelia continues meandering off the Florida East Coast with
little change in strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast of
Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast Florida
coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida...and the
southeastern United States coast...should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 28.6 north... longitude 79.4 west or about 75 miles
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Ophelia is stationary and a slow northeastward motion may occur over
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some increase in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles...130 km.

The hurricane hunter aircraft just reported a minimum central
pressure of 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to
3 inches across portions of central and northern Florida.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...28.6 N... 79.4 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central
pressure... 990 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$
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tronbunny
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#710 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:59 pm

Wow!
Ophelia really has us guessing.
I'd say this one ranks at the top for 2004-2005 for the biggest mystery!
just compare the model run variability over time..
Yes, I know that Katrina had some nice variability up until the last 48 hours before hitting SoFla, too.
I'm just not comfortable with this much uncertainty..
It's easy to take for granted the large amount of success that the NHC and other authorities (you know who you are :wink: ) have had with predictions in the past year or so.
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webke
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#711 Postby webke » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:02 pm

greeng13 wrote:
webke wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:thing is, the GFS has been utterly worthless for much of the season

I'm still waiting for Katrina to miss Florida to the east and hit SC


Since I live in SC where do you think it may head, I know you cannot be exact but the Northern of Southern part.


if you notice...he wrote KATRINA which is the hurricane that destroyed NOLA, Biloxi, Gulfport, et. al. We are currently discussing OPHELIA. The reference was to the GFS model which predicted that KATRINA would miss Florida and hit SC (which we all know did not happen)


I hope you are right, I still hear people calling Ophelia Katrina because of all the news coverage and the fact that it was so destructive.
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#712 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:09 pm

webke wrote:I hope you are right, I still hear people calling Ophelia Katrina because of all the news coverage and the fact that it was so destructive.


Its a kind of PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder) the magnitude of Katrina just places it on par with a brand name.
Kleenex is synonymous with facial tissue... so, naturally Katrina could be considered synonymous with hurricanes, to the "generalizing" public.
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webke
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#713 Postby webke » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:19 pm

Thanks for the infoo Tronbunny,
I never looked at it that way.
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#714 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:36 pm

FWIW in the recon thread, derek just said the plane is in there and it is no longer at hurricane strength
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BensonTCwatcher
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#715 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:57 pm

Looks like the eye is opening up on radar

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

Appears to be due to the reduction in convection over the FL landmass. Another burst looks to be formingon NE quad and might bump her back up.
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#716 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:09 pm

there is dry air that is pressing on her.....might be the ridge pushing in or east....
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#717 Postby spinfan4eva » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:10 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Looks like the eye is opening up on radar

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

Appears to be due to the reduction in convection over the FL landmass. Another burst looks to be formingon NE quad and might bump her back up.


Looks like a new eyewall is developing in that loop as the old one moves farther away from the center. Maybe an ERC?
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#718 Postby cinlfla » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:12 pm

there is dry air that is pressing on her.....might be the ridge pushing in or east....



If the ridge might be pushing from the east, wouldn't that give her a little push.
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#719 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:18 pm

This might the "kick" a lot of us have been waiting for. Models don't mean poop until it starts moving. Intersting that she has against the dry air over the SE this whole time but has strenghtened.

We'll see.

Ridging is strong too on both sides, but more so on the mid atlantic ridge. GFS sure does not look like this.

Image
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#720 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:43 pm

that ridge in centered over OK is pushing east...thats why all that dry air is pushing south on her....
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