Tropical Storm Ophelia

[BensonTCwatcher]

agreed, teh dry air is being pushed into her. She is now moving east in response to the ridge movement.

[Scorpion]

Definitely would cause big time weakening. Looks to be already happening. 5 mb pressure rise.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z FRI SEP 09 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO MEANDER OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[spinfan4eva]

New eye forming to the west? Looks like there is a tight spin in the scattered heavy convection on radar just west of the official eye and the official eye is filling in with northward moving showers and is less discernible on radar. Could this be a new eye forming Just west of the old eye?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[deltadog03]

well, as the ridge builds in...it may push her slightly east...then, it would start to push her south....in theory thats how it would work...

[cjrciadt]

The advisory till expects a borderline Cat3 by Mon. wherever she goes.

[Brent]

[SeaBrz_FL]

I just want her to MOVE!!! Go north, go east, or come onshore ... just do SOMETHING!

I think I'm suffering from that SADD thing that northerners go thru in the winter.

I MUST SEE THE SUN AGAIN soon.

The jungle is taking over the backyard!



Current weather conditions in Cape Canaveral: YUCKY! Continuous Seattle-like drizzle for the 172nd hour, stagnant air with an occasional 30 mph gust. Mildew growth is now to the 3 foot level on most exterior walls and the cat has decided that the "drowned rat look" is in for the season.

[Brent]

The advisory till expects a borderline Cat3 by Mon. wherever she goes.

The official forecast says strong Cat 1... 90 mph winds at 72-120 hours.

Gusts to 100 kt or 115 mph.

[deltadog03]

OK, can someone PLZ!!! tell me why they think its gonna go NE for that long of a period...specially with the ridge starting to enter the region??

[cjrciadt]

The advisory till expects a borderline Cat3 by Mon. wherever she goes.

The official forecast says strong Cat 1... 90 mph winds at 72-120 hours.

Gusts to 100 kt or 115 mph.

Sorry i saw it now, though she wont get beyond Cat1 in her current state.

[cjrciadt]

Most models agree on NE movement starting must be why they expect it till Sun.

[Brent]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v443/SeaBrz_FL/OphelliaJungle.jpg

Is that in Florida? LOL

[SeaBrz_FL]

Is that in Florida? LOL

Yep, right here in Cape Canaveral ... 1/4 mile from the shoreline.

[HURAKAN]

Another question:

Will that be called "cone of uncertainty" or "circle of uncertainty?

[cjrciadt]

Another question:

Will that be called "cone of uncertainty" or "circle of uncertainty?

The Dartboard of Uncertainty is more like it.

[CFL]

LOL SeaBrz! It's good that you can keep your sense of humor in continous dismal weather. Hopefully that thing will go somewhere soon. I'm a big believer in "getting it over with".

[HURAKAN]

[CFL]

It appears that Ophelia is attempting to write her initial in the Atlantic.