Tropical Storm Ophelia
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATED
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF OPHELIA HAD RISEN TO 990 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL INDICATED 65-70 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND A SHIP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 60 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D
SHOWS THAT SINCE 21Z THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION...BECOMING BROADER AND WITH THE DOPPLER VELOCITIES
DECREASING. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING AND
HAS JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB.
WHILE THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CENTER IS
JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF THIS IS THE START OF THE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT.
OPHELIA IS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE
WEAKENING AS A TROUGH MOVES TROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE TROUGH GOES BY AND THE RIDGE
RE-BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE BUILDING RIDGE COULD CAUSE
A LOOPING MOTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH 120 HR...OR
EVEN MOVE THE STORM BACK TO THE COAST BEFORE 120 HR AS FORECAST BY
THE GFDL AND GFDN. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EQUALLY SLOW
LOOP BACK TO THE WEST...AND NOT FOLLOW THE FASTER EXTREMES OF THE
GUIDANCE EITHER EAST OR WEST. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. ON THE SIDE FAVORING
STRENGTHENING...OPHELIA HAS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...IS OVER
THE WARM GULF STREAM...AND IS GENERATING CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR -80C.
ON THE SIDE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR SURROUNDING OPHELIA...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G4
JET SHOWS 20-30 KT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 250 MB BLOWING RIGHT
THROUGH THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW MOTION INTRODUCES
THE POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA WILL UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT
IF IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STREAM. SHIPS AND THE GFDL BOTH CALL
FOR STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH SHIPS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE
WESTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE STORM AFTER 48 HR. INDEED...MOST
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AT 72 HR...WHICH IS AN ANOTHER COMPLICATION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY THAN FORECAST BY
SHIPS AND THE GFDL.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 28.7N 79.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W 80 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATED
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF OPHELIA HAD RISEN TO 990 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL INDICATED 65-70 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND A SHIP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 60 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D
SHOWS THAT SINCE 21Z THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION...BECOMING BROADER AND WITH THE DOPPLER VELOCITIES
DECREASING. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING AND
HAS JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB.
WHILE THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CENTER IS
JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF THIS IS THE START OF THE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT.
OPHELIA IS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE
WEAKENING AS A TROUGH MOVES TROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE TROUGH GOES BY AND THE RIDGE
RE-BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE BUILDING RIDGE COULD CAUSE
A LOOPING MOTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH 120 HR...OR
EVEN MOVE THE STORM BACK TO THE COAST BEFORE 120 HR AS FORECAST BY
THE GFDL AND GFDN. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EQUALLY SLOW
LOOP BACK TO THE WEST...AND NOT FOLLOW THE FASTER EXTREMES OF THE
GUIDANCE EITHER EAST OR WEST. THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. ON THE SIDE FAVORING
STRENGTHENING...OPHELIA HAS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...IS OVER
THE WARM GULF STREAM...AND IS GENERATING CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR -80C.
ON THE SIDE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES DRY AIR SURROUNDING OPHELIA...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G4
JET SHOWS 20-30 KT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 250 MB BLOWING RIGHT
THROUGH THE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW MOTION INTRODUCES
THE POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA WILL UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT
IF IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STREAM. SHIPS AND THE GFDL BOTH CALL
FOR STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH SHIPS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE
WESTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE STORM AFTER 48 HR. INDEED...MOST
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AT 72 HR...WHICH IS AN ANOTHER COMPLICATION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY THAN FORECAST BY
SHIPS AND THE GFDL.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 28.7N 79.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 79.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 29.6N 78.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 30.2N 77.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 77.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 76.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 30.0N 76.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 30.0N 77.0W 80 KT
0 likes
#neversummer
cinlfla wrote:The 18z has Ophelia looping and then going to Canada....If I'm reading this wrong someone tell me and correct me. Thanks
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml
Through 108 hours, the 0Z run shows Ophelia being blocked, then looping similarly to the 12Z run but a little further north, and then approaching NC. So, for the last four runs, two have shown it going out to sea (THU 6Z and 18Z) and two getting blocked/looping (THU 12Z and FRI 0Z).
0Z loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_ten_s_loop.shtml
0 likes
Hmm.. I realize it's early yet, but any even quasi-reasonably safe bets as to when Ophelia will have done whatever deed it might do to the east coast of Florida?
Such as... it'll almost definitely be over and done with by the weekend of the 17th? Or something like that?
(I realize Florida is only one potential target.)
Such as... it'll almost definitely be over and done with by the weekend of the 17th? Or something like that?
(I realize Florida is only one potential target.)
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA DRIFTS A LITTLE NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN MELBOURNE SUGGEST
THAT OPHELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA DRIFTS A LITTLE NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN MELBOURNE SUGGEST
THAT OPHELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
#neversummer
The 0Z FRI ECMWF is very similar to its two prior runs in landfalling near Jacksonville Beach on SUN evening (72 hours). It then CRAWLS up the GA coast days 4-7.
Here is the 72 hour map:
Here is the 72 hour map:
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
spinfan4eva
- Category 1
- Posts: 295
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:27 am
- Location: Jacksonville, Florida
- Contact:
LarryWx wrote:The 0Z FRI ECMWF is very similar to its two prior runs in landfalling near Jacksonville Beach on SUN evening (72 hours). It then CRAWLS up the GA coast days 4-7.
Here is the 72 hour map:
Add the fact that the 00zGFS has trended towards a landfall too now (currently the S Carolina area)
Canadian says Ga Coast
UKMET says Ga near savannah
Doesnt look like a fish spinner either way. In fact, possibly a landfall in a very rare area. Still plenty of time for this to change though
0 likes
The 0Z FRI GFDL has it make a small loop near 76W and later has it hit near Beaufort, SC at hour 90 moving NWerly. Here is the 90 hour map:
So, in summary, the 0Z CDN, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL all landfall the center somewhere within the 150 mile wide Jacksonville-Beaufort corridor sometime during the 3-5 day period (SUN evening-TUE evening). while the GFS hits NC on day 6 (THU evening).
So, in summary, the 0Z CDN, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL all landfall the center somewhere within the 150 mile wide Jacksonville-Beaufort corridor sometime during the 3-5 day period (SUN evening-TUE evening). while the GFS hits NC on day 6 (THU evening).
0 likes
-
spinfan4eva
- Category 1
- Posts: 295
- Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:27 am
- Location: Jacksonville, Florida
- Contact:
167
WHXX01 KWBC 090600
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050909 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050909 0600 050909 1800 050910 0600 050910 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 79.3W 30.0N 78.6W 31.0N 77.4W 31.6N 76.3W
BAMM 28.9N 79.3W 29.8N 78.8W 30.5N 78.3W 30.8N 77.8W
A98E 28.9N 79.3W 29.4N 79.0W 30.0N 78.2W 30.1N 77.7W
LBAR 28.9N 79.3W 29.6N 78.6W 31.0N 77.4W 32.8N 75.1W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 64KTS 68KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050911 0600 050912 0600 050913 0600 050914 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.5N 74.8W 31.2N 72.5W 32.7N 73.7W 34.3N 75.6W
BAMM 30.4N 77.1W 28.9N 75.4W 30.1N 74.5W 32.8N 75.1W
A98E 29.8N 76.6W 28.6N 73.4W 29.3N 71.5W 31.8N 69.0W
LBAR 34.3N 71.0W 35.7N 55.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 70KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS
DSHP 70KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.9N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 28.6N LONM12 = 79.5W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 28.6N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 50NM
111
WHXX01 KWBC 090606
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050909 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050909 0600 050909 1800 050910 0600 050910 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 39.8N 44.7W 41.3N 41.0W 43.0N 37.6W 45.3N 34.0W
BAMM 39.8N 44.7W 41.3N 42.1W 43.2N 39.8W 45.7N 37.2W
A98E 39.8N 44.7W 40.8N 42.2W 42.8N 39.3W 44.7N 35.3W
LBAR 39.8N 44.7W 40.7N 41.6W 41.5N 38.9W 42.7N 36.5W
SHIP 55KTS 51KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 55KTS 51KTS 51KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050911 0600 050912 0600 050913 0600 050914 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 48.3N 29.6W 54.9N 18.6W 58.4N 3.8W 59.7N 11.4E
BAMM 49.1N 33.8W 56.2N 28.1W 61.6N 21.4W 64.4N 11.3W
A98E 46.9N 32.6W 42.6N 29.2W 42.8N 23.1W 50.2N 4.3W
LBAR 43.9N 34.5W 48.5N 28.9W 54.8N 13.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 60KTS 55KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 60KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 39.8N LONCUR = 44.7W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 39.1N LONM12 = 47.3W DIRM12 = 59DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 37.9N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 280NM RD34NW = 225NM
Looks like Ophelia will be downgraded to TS at 5am. Recon not finding hurricane force winds.
WHXX01 KWBC 090600
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050909 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050909 0600 050909 1800 050910 0600 050910 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 79.3W 30.0N 78.6W 31.0N 77.4W 31.6N 76.3W
BAMM 28.9N 79.3W 29.8N 78.8W 30.5N 78.3W 30.8N 77.8W
A98E 28.9N 79.3W 29.4N 79.0W 30.0N 78.2W 30.1N 77.7W
LBAR 28.9N 79.3W 29.6N 78.6W 31.0N 77.4W 32.8N 75.1W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 64KTS 68KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050911 0600 050912 0600 050913 0600 050914 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.5N 74.8W 31.2N 72.5W 32.7N 73.7W 34.3N 75.6W
BAMM 30.4N 77.1W 28.9N 75.4W 30.1N 74.5W 32.8N 75.1W
A98E 29.8N 76.6W 28.6N 73.4W 29.3N 71.5W 31.8N 69.0W
LBAR 34.3N 71.0W 35.7N 55.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 70KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS
DSHP 70KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.9N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 28.6N LONM12 = 79.5W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 28.6N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 50NM
111
WHXX01 KWBC 090606
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050909 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050909 0600 050909 1800 050910 0600 050910 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 39.8N 44.7W 41.3N 41.0W 43.0N 37.6W 45.3N 34.0W
BAMM 39.8N 44.7W 41.3N 42.1W 43.2N 39.8W 45.7N 37.2W
A98E 39.8N 44.7W 40.8N 42.2W 42.8N 39.3W 44.7N 35.3W
LBAR 39.8N 44.7W 40.7N 41.6W 41.5N 38.9W 42.7N 36.5W
SHIP 55KTS 51KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 55KTS 51KTS 51KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050911 0600 050912 0600 050913 0600 050914 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 48.3N 29.6W 54.9N 18.6W 58.4N 3.8W 59.7N 11.4E
BAMM 49.1N 33.8W 56.2N 28.1W 61.6N 21.4W 64.4N 11.3W
A98E 46.9N 32.6W 42.6N 29.2W 42.8N 23.1W 50.2N 4.3W
LBAR 43.9N 34.5W 48.5N 28.9W 54.8N 13.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 60KTS 55KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 60KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 39.8N LONCUR = 44.7W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 39.1N LONM12 = 47.3W DIRM12 = 59DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 37.9N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 250NM RD34SW = 280NM RD34NW = 225NM
Looks like Ophelia will be downgraded to TS at 5am. Recon not finding hurricane force winds.
0 likes
-
Coredesat
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT OPHELIA
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
RESTRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT OPHELIA
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
RESTRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
NNNN
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE
02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER
THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z
WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST
AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE
BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR
CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE
ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS
MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT
INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER
WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. OPHELIA
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW
THE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 29.3N 79.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 29.9N 78.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 30.5N 77.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 31.0N 77.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 76.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 30.7N 76.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 30.5N 77.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE
02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER
THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z
WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST
AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE
BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR
CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE
ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS
MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT
INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER
WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. OPHELIA
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW
THE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0900Z 29.3N 79.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 29.9N 78.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 30.5N 77.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 31.0N 77.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 76.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 30.7N 76.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 30.5N 77.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Okay. So what is going to pick-up Ophelia at the end and bring her north: a shortwave?
If so what will be the tilt of the shortwave? How fast will Ophelia be moving as she makes landfall.
As I see it: If she's a slow mover then the probability of a very strong storm impacting the coast is low as most slow moving storms fall apart with land interaction.
Does anyone think she will be a fast mover after the loop?
Okay. So what is going to pick-up Ophelia at the end and bring her north: a shortwave?
If so what will be the tilt of the shortwave? How fast will Ophelia be moving as she makes landfall.
As I see it: If she's a slow mover then the probability of a very strong storm impacting the coast is low as most slow moving storms fall apart with land interaction.
Does anyone think she will be a fast mover after the loop?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests