Ophelia intensifying -- 4.0/4.0..."weakly closed wall''

[dixiebreeze]

09/ 15 UTC 28.7N 79.5W T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0224Z
B. 28 DEG 40 MIN N
79 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1363 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 309 DEG 57 KT
G. 214 DEG 19 NM
H. EXTRAP 991 MB
I. 19 C/ 1525 M
J. 22 C/ 1589 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. WEAKLY CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0816A OPHELIA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 57 KT SW QUAD 0219Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23.5 C 225/12 NM FROM FL CNTR

[artist]

is that dvorak 4.0?
according to that recon message the pressure has risen once again by 1 millibar.

[dixiebreeze]

is that dvorak 4.0?
according to that recon message the pressure has risen once again by 1 millibar.

Yes, Dvorak.

[dixiebreeze]

SW quadrant, I believe.

[artist]

thanks!

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the FL winds from the NOAA aircraft, it seems as if we have a 45-50KT TS

[deltadog03]

i have seen a slight drift tonight....im rust on those coords...T#'s suggest .2W since the 2a adv....is that right?

[artist]

Derek - on hte latest vortex wouldn't 57 kts. with a 10% reduction be higher than that?

[Derek Ortt]

its a 20% reduction as they are flying at 850mb

58KT in NE quad, about 45KT at the surface

[Jevo]

looks like dvorak is way off from this one cause based on recon we deiniflty has a TS here

[spinfan4eva]

This is a vortex message from 1024PM EDT before the 11pm advisory. Ophy has shown deeper convection since then on satellite and radar since then.

based upon the FL winds from the NOAA aircraft, it seems as if we have a 45-50KT TS

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0224Z

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATED
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF OPHELIA HAD RISEN TO 990 MB...WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL INDICATED 65-70 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND A SHIP JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 60 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D
SHOWS THAT SINCE 21Z THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION...BECOMING BROADER AND WITH THE DOPPLER VELOCITIES
DECREASING. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING AND
HAS JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB.

[Derek Ortt]

no, a new vortex has since been provided, and it also indicated a moderate TS, though the pressure is 990mb

[artist]

thanks for the info.

[artist]

just looked at water vapor and appears to be deepening again and taller cloud heights - may be my imagination, but...

[spinfan4eva]

From the 2am Advisory:

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and data from
the National Weather Service Doppler radar in Melbourne suggest
that Ophelia may have begun to weaken slightly.

Based on the radar I am looking at, convection seems to be deepening and the center now wrapping around almost completely the center I have zoomed in on in the middle of this radar loop. Am I not seeing the center in the right place?

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... &map.y=196

[artist]

I see the same thing - remember that was based on a little earlier recon (the report) the deepening appears to have begun very recently.