time for the "season's over" people to come out

[wxwatcher91]

well here come a second lull... not sure how long it will be but as people have already noted, it is drier out in the Atlantic than it has been for a long time.
here's the culprit:


alright so the dry MJO is back but dont count on it to supress ALL activity... we still could be open for some ...maybe... anyway, IMO the dry MJO will take us through at least the middle of September.

okay there might be a lull, but please let's try to stop the "season is over" posts

[Skyline]

I remember people back in late July early August talking about how the season was bust. lol

[Patrick99]

I am not sure I see the difference - the Cape Verdes couldn't get going even with the wet MJO influence.

[Hyperstorm]

I am not sure I see the difference - the Cape Verdes couldn't get going even with the wet MJO influence.

The problem so far has been that when the MJO is in the wet phase, upper-level conditions are unfavorable for development that far east. When it reverses to the dry phase, subsidence is exacerbated and troughiness is not as prevalent in the deep tropics.

When the wet MJO returns by late September, we could see another burst of activity in the Atlantic, but by then the chances of CV development drop significantly.

FYI, you can also tell we're in the dry phase by how weak the ITCZ is at this time...

[Frank2]

In July someone here mentioned that this season would probably feature systems that formed "close in" and it seems to have come true, since the environment in the Tropical Atlantic was very hostile this summer due to several factors often discussed here.

In addition, the mid-Atlantic trough has been there the entire summer, and deflected many well-organized African waves into the central North Atlantic - fortunately. I can't imagine what would have happen had that trough not been in place!!

As for the rest of the season - I pray that the Gulf coast will not see another major hurricane, as that would only compound their suffering.

Frank

[x-y-no]

I am not sure I see the difference - the Cape Verdes couldn't get going even with the wet MJO influence.

The problem so far has been that when the MJO is in the wet phase, upper-level conditions are unfavorable for development that far east. When it reverses to the dry phase, subsidence is exacerbated and troughiness is not as prevalent in the deep tropics.

When the wet MJO returns by late September, we could see another burst of activity in the Atlantic, but by then the chances of CV development drop significantly.

FYI, you can also tell we're in the dry phase by how weak the ITCZ is at this time...

Yes, it's looking like we'll actually get through this extraordinarily busy year without a true CV storm.

As Katrina showed us, though, homebrew systems can be every bit as bad.

[ConvergenceZone]

I like many are saying the CV season is over, not the whole hurricane season. I'm sure there will be more storms. There's been nothing to change my mind regarding the CV season though. The proof is in the pudding as they say , and ain't no pudding to be found!