Ophelia Recon Reports

[Jim Hughes]

gulfstream moves so there is no upwelling over it

The Gulfstream waters may be warm but even it can have some upwelling of cooler subsurface waters just like everyone else when you have a system continually sitting over you for 48 hours. Even this mornings 5am discussion mentions this possibility.



Jim

[Hyperstorm]

gulfstream moves so there is no upwelling over it

The Gulfstream waters may be warm but even it can have some upwelling of cooler subsurface waters just like everyone else when you have a system continually sitting over you for 48 hours. Even this mornings 5am discussion mentions this possibility.



Jim

Jim Hughes...

They only mention it as a possibility if it moves away from the Gulf Stream.

Gulf Stream waters are constantly in motion for a weak storm to upwell it much. Even during the winter, those waters remain fairly warm. It would take a hurricane sitting around for days to really upwell those waters.

If upwelled SSTs were the cause, we wouldn't be seeing convection building intensely near the center. On the contrary, what we see is an on/off pulse of intense convection, which is very indicative of subsidence near the storm.

[Jim Hughes]

Hyperstorm,

This is not the thread for any long discussion so I will only say that I mentioned it as a possibility just like the NHC discussion. I also mentioned dry air in my first comments .

Ophelia was a weak hurricane and she was over the same area for quite a while. People tend to think every area off of the southeast coast is the Gulfstream just because the SSTs are warmer than average.

It meanders constantly and can move as much as 100 miles especially in the fall....northwards. This area is also the southern end ...close to where things pull together in helping make the Gulfstream like the Florida current.

She's moving and this will help her in my opinion even with all the dry air and all. Time will tell. As far as the reasoning behind convection building intensely if the SST's had been upwelling....I am sure you know that I look at things differently than you.


Jim

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm,

This is not the thread for any long discussion so I will only say that I mentioned it as a possibility just like the NHC discussion. I also mentioned dry air in my first comments .

Ophelia was a weak hurricane and she was over the same area for quite a while. People tend to think every area off of the southeast coast is the Gulfstream just because the SSTs are warmer than average.

It meanders constantly and can move as much as 100 miles especially in the fall....northwards. This area is also the southern end ...close to where things pull together in helping make the Gulfstream like the Florida current.

She's moving and this will help her in my opinion even with all the dry air and all. Time will tell. As far as the reasoning behind convection building intensely if the SST's had been upwelling....I am sure you know that I look at things differently than you.


Jim

Jim...

I've seen hurricanes upwell waters and believe me, the first signs of that are the weakening of convection near the center revealing a circulation with scattered patches of moderate convection in the storm (similar to when a hurricane is just starting to move over cooler waters in the Eastern Pacific).

The Gulf Stream is a current of warm air that is constantly fed by the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Even if a hurricane were to upwell the waters underneath, the current would immediately replace it with the warmer waters, offsetting any upwelling.

As you said, everybody seems to have a different degree of thinking. The forecaster for the 11pm advisory talked about upwelling totally different (occuring away from the Gulf Stream) than the one who did the forecast at 5am.

But let me tell you...I have yet to see upwelling occur in the Gulf Stream with a tropical storm...

[drezee]

Storm OPHELIA: Observed By NOAA #3
Storm #16 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 57KT (65.6mph 105.6km/h) In SW Quadrant At 1139Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 51.3KT (59.0mph 95.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 29° 16' N 79° 05' W (29.3°N 79.1°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1292m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 57KT (65.55mph 105.6km/h) From 300°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 11nm (12.6 miles) From Center At Bearing 203°
Minimum pressure: 983mb (29.03in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: POORLY DEFINED
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[CronkPSU]

Minimum pressure: 983mb (29.03in) -- Extrapolated

whoa is that right???

[spinfan4eva]

Minimum pressure: 983mb (29.03in) -- Extrapolated

whoa is that right???

Maybe they meant 993MB?????

[JamesFromMaine2]

292
URNT12 KNHC 091355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1326Z
B. 29 DEG 21 MIN N
78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1285 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 024 DEG 51 KT
G. 315 DEG 49 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 21 C/ 1560 M
J. 23 C/ 1638 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 67 KT SE QUAD 1332Z

[cjrciadt]

Back to Cat1 status pretty low presure for only a Cat1, what is she planning?

[Jim Hughes]

Hyperstorm.

Why do you keep referring to her as a tropical storm? This is misleading. I realize she was only a Cat 1 for a while but she was a hurricane. I am 46 years old and I have been watching TWC since around 1980 and I have heard plenty of people like the late John Hope talk about systems upwelling the Gulfstream area while they are stalled.

People have even talked about previous ones...who tracked days ahead...of a storm possibly effecting things.

I understand your opinion and I respect it. Especially if it is consistent. My biggest problem with most people is they flip flop all the time in what causes weakening or strengthening.


Jim

[Brent]

Back to Cat1 status pretty low presure for only a Cat1, what is she planning?

The winds will probably respond soon and she'll be stronger than 75 mph... probably 80-85 mph.

[Derek Ortt]

pressure is now up to 985mb

seems what we are seeing are quick pressure drops when a super cell forms right over the center, followed by steady weakening afterwards

[Derek Ortt]

URNT12 KNHC 091740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1709Z
B. 29 DEG 41 MIN N
78 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1281 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 022 DEG 60 KT
G. 349 DEG 32 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 18 C/ 1516 M
J. 24 C/ 1659 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 72 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 1721Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION

[Brent]

What's the FL reduction???

[CronkPSU]

i think they have been going with 90%

[Brent]

i think they have been going with 90%

Well that's a hurricane...

[Derek Ortt]

for the 1,000th time,

80% is used at 850mb

this is a 60KT TS now, up from 55KT earlier

[CronkPSU]

for the 1,000th time,

80% is used at 850mb

this is a 60KT TS now, up from 55KT earlier

whoops

[Thunder44]

for the 1,000th time,

80% is used at 850mb

this is a 60KT TS now, up from 55KT earlier

Well, apparently they are using a lower reduction or they don't care or using other info, because the 18z models have now as a 65kt hurricane again.

[mf_dolphin]

for the 1,000th time,

80% is used at 850mb

this is a 60KT TS now, up from 55KT earlier

Well, apparently they are using a lower reduction or they don't care or using other info, because the 18z models have now as a 65kt hurricane again.

Model initialization and flight level reduction have nothing to do with one another.