Are Most Here Buying Into The GFDL (NHC) Loop & NW Motio

[tropicstorm]

It appears that most model guidance is in consensus on this gradual slow movement north & NE with Ophelia doing the loop-de-loop on Monday / Tuesday. But, do you think the NHC is that confident already with a NW track into the GA / Carolina coast? How can they be this sure 5+ days out. My local mets were saying last night that the official NHC forecast model (GFDL) takes Ophelia NW into Ga / Carolinas.

[artist]

think the discussion said everyone from Florida to the Carolinas needs to be watching it.

[spinfan4eva]

Keep in mind also that as of the 8am advisory, it stalled again so Fla-Carolinas should watch it as models could change again.

[Derecho]

It appears that most model guidance is in consensus on this gradual slow movement north & NE with Ophelia doing the loop-de-loop on Monday / Tuesday. But, do you think the NHC is that confident already with a NW track into the GA / Carolina coast? How can they be this sure 5+ days out. My local mets were saying last night that the official NHC forecast model (GFDL) takes Ophelia NW into Ga / Carolinas.

The GFDL isn't an "official" anything. It's just another model. An important model. But you'll notice they basically spent the first 3 days of Ophelia completely ignoring the GFDL track.

However, in the last 12 hours you're beginning to see the useful models converge on a consensus loop and a landfall in Georgia or South Carolina in 4 to 6 days.

Over time the models get better and also they get better as a storm strengthens.

When the models made the great shift to New Orleans for Katrina, you saw a zillion posts here about how the models were going to flop around, blah blah blah...

But they never did. They basically never moved for the next 60 hours.

[x-y-no]

I don't think there's tremendous confidence in th 4 to 5 day track, no.

[ronjon]

I don't think there's tremendous confidence in th 4 to 5 day track, no.

I agree. The models are now narrowing from a bowl of spaghetti to a giant beach ball aimed somewhere between Miami and Hatteras. There is now consensus that the storm will not go out to sea. Now is the time the next few days that a coastal landfall zone will begin to narrow. Look for trends over time (as an example the GFDL has shifted its landfall from Charleston SC, to Savannah, to now just north of JAX the last 3 runs). It all likely depends how far north and how far offshore the big O gets, before we'll know with greater certainty. Remember, the global models just a few days ago had her drifting NW to just offshore JAX, and we know she just sat off of the Cape for more than 24 hours. So...........