Tropical Storm Ophelia

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skufful
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#761 Postby skufful » Fri Sep 09, 2005 7:30 am

LarryWx wrote:The 0Z FRI GFDL has it make a small loop near 76W and later has it hit near Beaufort, SC at hour 90 moving NWerly. Here is the 90 hour map:

Image

So, in summary, the 0Z CDN, NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL all landfall the center somewhere within the 150 mile wide Jacksonville-Beaufort corridor sometime during the 3-5 day period (SUN evening-TUE evening). while the GFS hits NC on day 6 (THU evening).


That could leave a mark. Won't happen, we're blessed here.
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#762 Postby shaggy » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:16 am

with most of the models now clustering around the GA/SC border area i am becoming more relaxed juts as long as we get a little rain from her i will be happy.Just have to watch for trends or changes that happen but she does not look like she wants to come this far north!
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#763 Postby chicagopizza » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:24 am

I can't say I feel the same as you, ncdowneast, considering where I live. :) hahaha But I hope you get rain soon. We are still days out, though, and a lot could change. All I know is it is going to be a beautiful weekend here and I have every intention of enjoying home sweet home - Savannah, Ga!
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#764 Postby cmdebbie » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:28 am

chicagopizza wrote:I can't say I feel the same as you, ncdowneast, considering where I live. :) hahaha But I hope you get rain soon. We are still days out, though, and a lot could change. All I know is it is going to be a beautiful weekend here and I have every intention of enjoying home sweet home - Savannah, Ga!


I am so jealous...I absolutely LOVE Savannah. It is such a beautiful, intriguing & mysterious city. Also love the Mother & Son Restaurant.
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#765 Postby chicagopizza » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:41 am

cmdebbie-

We were thrilled when we got the chance to move here last year! I have to say, though, I love Florida too and go there often! We found a few local restaurants that are amazing on top of Lady and Sons. I can pm you with them if you like! Our dogs love Savannah too- we take them to Forsyth Park and go through the beautiful neighborhoods taking photos. We must look like dorks considering we live here, but I don't care! :)
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#766 Postby tallbunch » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:47 am

I'm right by ya. I swear, they always say they are coming but when they get close to SAV or beaufort, it moves North.
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#767 Postby feederband » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:54 am

Well I'm still thinking of last year when they said Jeanne would loop and would not hit Florida..We all know how that turned out...I don't know where its going but when they put a loop into the models it seems it is way to difficult to predict how large the loop may be...
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#768 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:55 am

latest vortex has pressure at 983
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#769 Postby artist » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:57 am

wow! really dropped there!
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#770 Postby shaggy » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:03 am

i bet at 11am they start talking about the models coming into better agreement and you may seem them start to pin down a landfall since the models are inside the 5day forecast with some of their landfalls!
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#771 Postby spinfan4eva » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:03 am

CronkPSU wrote:latest vortex has pressure at 983


57Kts and poor eyewall as well as satellite/radar does not show a 983MB storm. I think they meant 993MB
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#772 Postby wx247 » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:06 am

No one has posted the 8 am advisory??? :eek: :lol:

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 12a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 09, 2005



...Ophelia moving little...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of
Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach...and a
a tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Flagler Beach
to Fernandina Beach.

Interests elsewhere north of the watch area through the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Ophelia.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 79.1 west or about
115 miles east of Daytona Beach Florida.

Ophelia has been moving little during the few hours but a slow
motion toward the northeast is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts.
Ophelia has the potential to restrengthen to a hurricane over the
next day or so.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.

Additional rainfall accumulations of up to 1 inch are possible over
coastal sections of central and northern Florida.

A high risk of dangerous rip currents exists within the warning area
and northward through the Carolinas.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...29.3 N... 79.1 W. Movement
nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph. Minimum
central pressure...991 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila
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#773 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:07 am

spinfan4eva wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:latest vortex has pressure at 983


57Kts and poor eyewall as well as satellite/radar does not show a 983MB storm. I think they meant 993MB


No, the 850mb height was 165 meters below standard - they definitely meant 983mb.
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#774 Postby curtinnc » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:17 am

CronkPSU wrote:latest vortex has pressure at 983


Guess she's not weakening... just hiding her structure well... Like a bombshell lady wearing a burlap bag to keep the guys guessing... Hehheeee, but seriously, that supports hurricane strength I think...
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#775 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:21 am

yes I am pretty sure it does support Hurricane but they won't upgrade it until the winds are supporting the upgrade! Right now the winds are still Tropical storm force!
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#776 Postby cmdebbie » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:24 am

chicagopizza wrote:cmdebbie-

We were thrilled when we got the chance to move here last year! I have to say, though, I love Florida too and go there often! We found a few local restaurants that are amazing on top of Lady and Sons. I can pm you with them if you like! Our dogs love Savannah too- we take them to Forsyth Park and go through the beautiful neighborhoods taking photos. We must look like dorks considering we live here, but I don't care! :)


Yes, please PM me with the names of those restaurants. Oops, I forgot it's Lady and Sons (not Mother and Sons). The first time I went to Savannah, I was intrigued by "The Garden of Good and Evil.." (I think that is the name of it.) Anyways, I went and bought the book and finished it in one day. Then, I went and found all of the places in the book and took pictures. Thanks.
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#777 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:28 am

984mb pressure with 67knts winds (77mph) according to Recon, what is she up to?
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#778 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:40 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S COAST...FOR NOW...

AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA
BEACH HAVE BENN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#779 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:40 am

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z FRI SEP 09 2005

AT 11AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA
BEACH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 78.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 78.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#780 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:41 am

ImageBig change in the "Dartboard" 983mb was not a typo.
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