Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Brent]

Landfall at Hilton Head Island...

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

OPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983
MB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65
KNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP
IN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE
IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A
DAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.
ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC
THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED
STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK
AND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST
TWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4
DAYS.

BECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST...
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 29.5N 78.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[wxwonder12]

If the high pressure is supposed to build in and loop the storm, then to the west, how can the track go to the North around Tue and Wed. Is it supposed to back off???

[jasons2k]

Wow Wow Wow, I wonder if Pat Prokop and Savannah will finally get the big one. Lived there from '84-'88 on Wilmington Island.

That would be sad though, to see NOLA get hit and then Savannah/Charleston, two beautiful and historical southern cities, with all kinds of irreplaceable buildings and antiques.

On Savannah Restuarants, back in the day.......
Williams Seafood on Hwy. 80 headed towards Tybee Island was good.
Another seafood place on Wilmington next to the Sheraton (if it's still there).
Mrs. Wilkes downtown is regarded as one of the best homestyle places in all of the south.
The Pirate's House is a great tourist/family place.
On the High $$ end, Elizabeth on 34th is world famous.

Be sure to get some Brunswick Stew too.

Gosh I miss that place. Hope it's spared.

[skufful]

I would be very surprised if this storm made landfall anywhere near us. Usually that's the best news for us (being in the middle of the cone) because they almost always land further north. As far as this storm is concerned, with steering currents so confusing, I do not think there is any way to peg its landfall, if it even makes one.

[chicagopizza]

Jschlitz-

Now I am getting hungry!! Anyhow, my thoughts exactly. So much beauty and history...I agree I hope we and all surrounding areas are spared- no landfall anywhere please!!! Haven't been to Elizabeth's but went to Gottlieb's ...funny story for another time..fantastic, but wow! Keeping our fingers crossed for this storm to go back to sea, somehow....Tallbunch, I hope you are right!!

[HURAKAN]

984mb pressure with 67knts winds (77mph) according to Recon, what is she up to?

67 KNOTS at flying level, which is reduced to about 56 knots at the surface. Now, 984 mb and 65 mph don’t correlate at all. Maybe, like we have seen with other cyclones, the winds will increase in the next few hours to be in concordance with the pressure.

[cajungal]

I was looking at some of the models. And it looks like she may head back to the southwest by the middle of the week.

[wxwonder12]

any links to the models leading to the sw??

[Derek Ortt]

if the trough comes down any further, Ophelia is going to be hit with 70KT of shear. Just checked the upper winds from the 12Z obs, and there are some 70KT westerlies just north of Ophelia

[tallbunch]

My uneducated guess would be sc/nc line...nothing comes here. It always go North. Storms will come so close and nothing. If people are told to leave, my likely they won't.

[HURAKAN]

My uneducated guess would be sc/nc line...nothing comes here. It always go North. Storms will come so close and nothing. If people are told to leave, my likely they won't.

I though the same after Charley, Frances, and Jeanne. Then came Katrina, and the rest is history!

[DESTRUCTION5]

My uneducated guess would be sc/nc line...nothing comes here. It always go North. Storms will come so close and nothing. If people are told to leave, my likely they won't.

If your truly from hilton head...Id be ready...Maybe not for a Katrina but i say your gonna get a blow...

[shaggy]

seems complacency has taken hold in southern SC/GA area.Be ready for a cane because you are currently forecasted to have one in a few days prepare now and just be ready for anything!

[eolian]

Link to a good model site...http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Well tried to post as a link but this site is a good model site...jim

[tallbunch]

The models shift every 5 hours. I guess I will watch and see. I won't leave this Island until I know at LEAST a 3 is knocking on my door. The same goes for everyone I work with.

[shaggy]

what happens whena cat 1 jumps quickly to cat 3 and you do not have time to leave then?

[Pebbles]

The models shift every 5 hours. I guess I will watch and see. I won't leave this Island until I know at LEAST a 3 is knocking on my door. The same goes for everyone I work with.

When are we going to learn better? Guess what happened 2 weeks ago in the Gulf makes no difference still

Let's all start counting the storms this year that have rapidly/near rapidly intensified.....

[Coastal-GA]

It's been a hundred years since Savannah had a substantial hurricane. Low lying area. Massive oaks and Pines...heavily congested.


Add to that a substantial area of public housing, lots of people without the means to get out of town. Thankfully, most of the area is not 6 feet under sea level. Most of Savannah is an astonishing 5-10 feet above sea level. Can we do the math?

Are we ready? I don't think so.

Henry
Skidaway Island, GA

[HurricaneGirl]

My brother lives in Savanah. I better call him and say: Holy Crap.. it's coming right for you!