Tropical Storm Ophelia

[tallbunch]

David came to SAV in 1979 ? I believe. Not to much damage, a low hurricane.

This storm is still 5 days off. THe models are going to shift from NC to FL. I am not worried at all about it hitting GA/SC border.

[Coastal-GA]

Add to that a substantial area of public housing, lots of people without the means to get out of town. Thankfully, most of the area is not 6 feet under sea level. Most of Savannah is an astonishing 5-10 feet above sea level. Can we do the math?

We should at least be thinking about it.

[deltadog03]

im from GA...but, lets not just hone in on this track....the ridge will build back....GFS loves to underestimate the ridge.....FL---->NC need to watch this

[chicagopizza]

Henry,

I think wtoc just did a report on that a few days ago, oddly enough. I was shocked to find out our home in Georgetown would be in trouble at a Category 2. I mean, we don't live on the water,so... Anyhow, am I glad I did the research. I won't obsess over it, but I am watching this thing. If not for me and my husband, for our two beautiful dogs, and beyond that, families who love us- well, they love us some of the time...hahaha

[Coastal-GA]

A glancing blow...far less built up on low lying flood plains in those days.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/david.htm

[Coastal-GA]

I'm not posting any predictions, now. I just think that Savannah is unprepared. And Georgetown is a perfect example! as just stated above.

Henry

[jasons2k]

The models shift every 5 hours. I guess I will watch and see. I won't leave this Island until I know at LEAST a 3 is knocking on my door. The same goes for everyone I work with.

Not too smart considering HH is a densely populated barrier island surrounded by marsh with only one way out.

[jasons2k]

Savannah had a 'cane in 1947 as well.

Problem with Savannah is that there are 2 sets of highly populated islands. The barrier islands (Tybee, etc.) will take the intial hit. Then you have the secondary islands (Wilmington, Whitemarsh, etc.) that are surrounded by miles and miles of tidal marshes. The marshes turn into a sea even with a "spring tide". A hurricane would be devastating.

The saving grace is that the CBD and the core of the city sits on a bluff well above the surrounding area, but the outskirts would be a disaster.

[Stormtrack03]

Here in Charleston, local officials are getting prepared and local forecasters are telling us to tune in Monday to see how much of our area will be affected.... right now I'm concerned and watching here.

[Steve H.]

12Z GFS brings Ophelia up the Atlantic coast to New England now at hour 168! Don't know if I buy that yet. Interestingly, it develops lows in the eastern Atlantic heading west under high pressure.

[TPACane04]

I think a hit between Jax and Charleston next week would not be surprising...and could be quite dangerous, as I wonder if residents in those areas even remember how to properly do an evacuation?

Might be a good time to brush up on dem skills....

a Cat 2 rolling through that zone would be punishing.

[Stormtrack03]

I think a hit between Jax and Charleston next week would not be surprising...and could be quite dangerous, as I wonder if residents in those areas even remember how to properly do an evacuation?

Might be a good time to brush up on dem skills....

a Cat 2 rolling through that zone would be punishing.

After the botched Hurricane Floyd evacuation several years ago, I truely hope we have a better evacuation plan .

[spinfan4eva]

Jacksonville is in the cone but not in the track, the track says savannah/Charleston so are we ok Jacksonville now with the track above us? Also, 12Z CMC is weird, it moves the storm Northeast away from Fla the SW towards Fla

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[LarryWx]

David came to SAV in 1979 ? I believe. Not to much damage, a low hurricane.

It was a borderline cat1/cat 2 when it made landfall on Ossabaw Island, ~20 miles due south of Savannah putting Savannah in the northern eyewall. It actually had earlier been expected to pass a littler further east, thus putting Savannah in the somewhat weaker western side. However, earlier in the day there had been an unexpected slight NNW jog. A little later, the eye went over part of Chatham county as it moved northward, leading to many reports of near calm/sunshine then. There wasn't too much direct wind damage to man-made structures, but there were a good number of trees down, causing many to lose power for several days or longer, some roof damage when they fell on homes, and a few blocked roads. Storm surge wasn't a big problem.
The last storm to hit GA with a very large storm surge was in 1898.

[cinlfla]

Jacksonville is in the cone but not in the track, the track says savannah/Charleston so are we ok Jacksonville now with the track above us? Also, 12Z CMC is weird, it moves the storm Northeast away from Fla the SW towards Fla

Never focuse on the line if you are in the cone watch it.

[jasons2k]

Jacksonville is in the cone but not in the track, the track says savannah/Charleston so are we ok Jacksonville now with the track above us? Also, 12Z CMC is weird, it moves the storm Northeast away from Fla the SW towards Fla

Never focuse on the line if you are in the cone watch it.

Exactly, the NHC hammers this time and time again, do not focus on the line, but the cone, especially this far away from landfall. Ask your pals in Punta Gorda about that one.

[LarryWx]

I think a hit between Jax and Charleston next week would not be surprising...and could be quite dangerous, as I wonder if residents in those areas even remember how to properly do an evacuation?

Might be a good time to brush up on dem skills....

a Cat 2 rolling through that zone would be punishing.

After the botched Hurricane Floyd evacuation several years ago, I truely hope we have a better evacuation plan .

Although the traffic jams were horrendous for Floyd due partially to a delay in making all I-16 lanes westbound, Savannah, unlike N.O., did have a solid program in place of providing buses to evacuate those who needed transportation. Supposedly, over 90% (maybe 95%?) evacuated per officials. And that was six years ago. I'm assuming that the massive Florida evacuations into GA made it worse in GA than would have otherwise been the case.

[spinfan4eva]

I think a hit between Jax and Charleston next week would not be surprising...and could be quite dangerous, as I wonder if residents in those areas even remember how to properly do an evacuation?

Might be a good time to brush up on dem skills....

a Cat 2 rolling through that zone would be punishing.

After the botched Hurricane Floyd evacuation several years ago, I truely hope we have a better evacuation plan .

Although the traffic jams were horrendous for Floyd due partially to a delay in making all I-16 lanes westbound, Savannah, unlike N.O., did have a solid program in place of providing buses to evacuate those who needed transportation. Supposedly, over 90% (maybe 95%?) evacuated per officials. And that was six years ago. I'm assuming that the massive Florida evacuations into GA made it worse in GA than would have otherwise been the case.

Shouldnt be a problem now being this is a Ga/SC threat verses a Fla Threat so this evac should go smoothly.........As it stands now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK Let's see. Not that anybody was arguing with my speculations or anything. I thought I would check myself to see how my specu-cast is verifying

Yesterday about this time I said:

1. It would start moving soon because of the ridge to the west.
2. I said it would move mostly North then NE for say 24-36 hrs
3. I said it would get close to the GA coast.
4. After 36 hrs ( maybe more) it would track into near MB in SC
5. No Loop, just wobble/drift/zag along the general course

So far:

#1 = verified
#2 = 24 hrs OK lets see what next 12 brings
#3 = Looking promising one way or another
#4 = Have to wait, but still plausible
#5 = All the models, pros, NHC, and everybody else says different....might be getting ready to eat crow on that

Loop looks like it will happen, but I may have just been stubborn on the more eastern track and loop back. I see it more of a slow down, drift and turn. It looks that way to me because Ophelia is moving so slow the trough will keep moving past and she won't get blocked so much as turned. I am past where I know anything about how these things behave when trapped. I will apply the same logic as to a trapped lion, and be careful because they are much more dangerous trapped.


Link to yesterday's post page below,
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73697&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=480

[shaggy]

appears a slow steady NE movement is underway just have to wait and see how far it makes it before any kind of short loop or change in direction is noted.Feeling somewhat at ease with this storm and the models have the GS lV data to go on now so they should start nailing it down soon.