BensonTCwatcher wrote:OK Let's see. Not that anybody was arguing with my specualtions or anything. I thought I check myself to see how my specu-cast is verfiying
Yesterday about this time I said:
1. It would start moving soon because of the ridge to the west.
2. I said it would move mostly North then NE for say 24-36 hrs
3. I said it would get close to the GA coast.
4. After 36 hrs ( maybe more) it would track into near MB in SC
5. No Loop, just wobble/drift/zag along the general course
So far:
#1 = verified
#2 = 24 hrs OK lets see what next 12 brings
#3 = Looking promising one way or another
#4 = Have to wait, but still plausible
#5 = All the models, pros, NHC, and everybody else says different....might be getting ready to eat crow on that
Loop looks like it will happen, but I may have just been stubborn on the more eastern track and loop back. I see it more of a slow down, drift and turn. It looks that way to me because Ophelia is moving so slow the trough will keep moving past and she won't get blocked so much as turned. I am past where I know anything about how these things behave when trapped. I will apply the same logic as to a trapped lion, and be careful because they are much more dangerous trapped.
Link to yesterdays's post page below,
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73697&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=480
You have a looping tropical cyclone. It depends on how tight the loop is. If it is tight, I would guess carolinas. If it is a bigger loop, its floridabound IMHO
