AVN (and NHC) under estimating the ridge

[sponger]

After reviewing the model runs, I see alot of consensus into GA. It seems the avn is showing a rather weak ridge that erodes as it moves east and thus takes in into SC. Anyone else think this not that plausible?

[wxwonder12]

It would seem to me that if the ridge is supposed to be strong that after the loop then Ophelia would tend to go more to the West then the North or Northwest. I thought I read in one advisorie that it was a strong ridge.

[deltadog03]

the ridge will be stronger.....GFS ALWAYS UNDERDOES the ridge....happens all the time...don't be suprised if this moves back west across norther florida

[shaggy]

postion on this one is going to be just as important as how strong it is too.Local met for Eastern NC just said that if the high slides east any then the further north the storm goes.Is the high going to be locked into place or is it going to be transient!

[deltadog03]

well, thats depends on what model you look at....gfs tries to break down the heights all the time in the east...btw, whether you like him or not, bastardi is very good at teleconnections...and this ridge teleconnects very well...i see the ridge holding...

[HurricaneGirl]

the ridge will be stronger.....GFS ALWAYS UNDERDOES the ridge....happens all the time...don't be suprised if this moves back west across norther florida

Holy Crap!

[WeatherEmperor]

the ridge will be stronger.....GFS ALWAYS UNDERDOES the ridge....happens all the time...don't be suprised if this moves back west across norther florida

Holy Crap!

lol. cute.

<RICKY>

[cajungal]

2 models still have it hitting Florida. So Florida is still not out of the woods. But, the Carolinas seem more likely.

[weatherwoman]

joe thinks ga to hattress i know big area i talked to a local met he thinks it will be in southern nc

[shaggy]

GFS is now showing a wierd north track right into the OBX certainly an outlier at this time

[BensonTCwatcher]

It looks a little undercooked to me on all the globals, but I may be wrong there. The key was the GOM portion, speed of Ophelia, and the eastern or mid atlantic ridge, which all of the models seem to be missing a bit.

[TampaFl]

I have noticed that there appears to be more of an east or slightly north of due east movement. IMHO, it needs to gain more latitude if it is going to loop and possible affect the GA, Carolina's next week. But if it stays more on the easterly track and then loop, could it not poosibly affect Central to North Florida possibly next week? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[N2Storms]

For what it's worth I talked to a gentleman who is a former met in the Air Force stationed here in Panama City and his thinking along with some of his colleagues is that it will not gain much more latitude and then loop and make landfall somewhere between Jax and Coca Beach late Tues or early Wed. as a strong Cat 2.

[NastyCat4]

Unlikely for Florida--higher probability of Georgia to SC, or still out to sea. The ridge isn't made of cement, and a weakness in it will allow Ophelia to escape a la Nate.

[SouthFloridawx]

Like i said in another post....

Look at me a lot of people are underestimating me! I wonder what I will do to this storm.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[N2Storms]

Like i said in another post....

Look at me a lot of people are underestimating me! I wonder what I will do to this storm.



That's basically what I was alluding to in my previous post. My AF buddy said that he thought the ridge was already affecting Ophelia and the reason she is going more ENE than NE is due to the influence of the ridge. I guess we'll just watch this thing play out like everyone else.

[Marilyn]

joe thinks ga to hattress i know big area i talked to a local met he thinks it will be in southern nc

S.NC thats where i live. . We need RAIN. But not if it means having a Hurricane to get it.

[FlSteel]

I'm begining to wonder if this thing may go more east than ene before looping. This would put central to north florida back into the most likly landfall scenario.
As I have been telling neighbors around here, this is not a storm to ignore. We must watch and prepare as if we are going to get hit. I'm so sure yet of a GA to SC landfall. Too far out in my opinion to be sure yet.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm begining to wonder if this thing may go more east than ene before looping. This would put central to north florida back into the most likly landfall scenario.
As I have been telling neighbors around here, this is not a storm to ignore. We must watch and prepare as if we are going to get hit. I'm so sure yet of a GA to SC landfall. Too far out in my opinion to be sure yet.

I personally think this is a storm for everyone from Florida to the OBX to keep a close eye on

[sponger]

What I dont under stand is the NHC track points nne. Reminds me of TD 10 when every update pointed north for future track as it kept heading west. I think they are playing conservative until the 11:00. I can't wait!