BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

[jasons2k]

I'll go out on a limb here - the season is over for Texas.

Before everyone throws their coffee at me and says September is our 2nd busiest month (in Texas), nobody is safe until December, anything can happen, yada yada yada.........

This system had until basically tonight to get its act together. Don't see that happening. Looks like we are headed into another lull, and by the time we are cranking again storms should be mostly an east coast threat. Shortly after, anything in the NW Caribbean will likely recurve to the NE as the westerlies move down.

Of course there is that outside shot in the lull we get something in the Caribbean that can continue W/NW towards Texas, but I just don't see anything on the horizon that can beat the clock.

[perk]

I hope you carried a rope, or at least have an air bed to break your fall.

[vbhoutex]

The answer to the original question is no. It is almost all on shore now.

[Portastorm]

I'll go out on a limb here - the season is over for Texas.

Before everyone throws their coffee at me and says September is our 2nd busiest month (in Texas), nobody is safe until December, anything can happen, yada yada yada.........

This system had until basically tonight to get its act together. Don't see that happening. Looks like we are headed into another lull, and by the time we are cranking again storms should be mostly an east coast threat. Shortly after, anything in the NW Caribbean will likely recurve to the NE as the westerlies move down.

Of course there is that outside shot in the lull we get something in the Caribbean that can continue W/NW towards Texas, but I just don't see anything on the horizon that can beat the clock.

Normally about this time of year, I would agree with you ... but this year is different and we appear to still be in a summerlike pattern. Until the westerlies kick in strong and we get out first real cold front, I believe the tropics could still be a major player for Texas.

[dwg71]

I'll go out on a limb here - the season is over for Texas.

Before everyone throws their coffee at me and says September is our 2nd busiest month (in Texas), nobody is safe until December, anything can happen, yada yada yada.........

This system had until basically tonight to get its act together. Don't see that happening. Looks like we are headed into another lull, and by the time we are cranking again storms should be mostly an east coast threat. Shortly after, anything in the NW Caribbean will likely recurve to the NE as the westerlies move down.

Of course there is that outside shot in the lull we get something in the Caribbean that can continue W/NW towards Texas, but I just don't see anything on the horizon that can beat the clock.

I say its closing time, last call-if you will. Bar closes at 9/20 for all intents and purposes. Now we may have a drunk scraggler, but they usually don't do much damage.

[deltadog03]

dwg, js...i actually agree with ya....lol..throw a party..woohoo...anyway, there will prolly be a late bloomer... interestingly enough, this pattern is a summer type pattern and thats why i am saying we still have to watch...

[jasons2k]

Well I'm not saying "stop watching". I would just be very, very surprised at this time if we had a TX threat. Something would truly have to come out of the blue. Ophelia looks like she's not a threat, there are no promising waves to speak of, there's nothing brewing in the Caribbean. Of course, 2 weeks from now that will all be a different story, but by then it will prob. be too late. The clock is running out fast for us, thank goodness.

[hicksta]

Yesterday In the year 1900. A storm ravged galveston... And your saying there wont be any action for texas??? Anythign can happen my friend

[dwg71]

Yesterday In the year 1900. A storm ravged galveston... And your saying there wont be any action for texas??? Anythign can happen my friend

Yeah, anything CAN happen. You CAN win the lottery. We are just saying that it is a lot less likely to happen late in the season. I said if we dont have it by 9/20 we probably wont see anything this year.

[Houstonia]

The answer to the original question is no. It is almost all on shore now.

For which I am very grateful. The best thing that can happen is for the 2005 hurricane season to come to a quick and uneventful end.

Roll on November...

[jasons2k]

Yesterday In the year 1900. A storm ravged galveston... And your saying there wont be any action for texas??? Anythign can happen my friend

Well aware of that, as I stated above "September is our 2nd busiest month (in Texas)". But it's not 1900.

Show me a threat and I will change my mind.

[Johnny]

I don't see Texas being hit by a system this year either. JMO

[cajungal]

Me neither. And I looked it up, for October, Texas has never been hit by a hurricane. But, be thankful, you don't wan't to go through what SE Louisiana and the MS coast are going through right now.

[Brent]

The answer to the original question is no. It is almost all on shore now.

For which I am very grateful. The best thing that can happen is for the 2004 hurricane season to come to a quick and uneventful end.

Roll on November...

2004?

[southerngale]

Me neither. And I looked it up, for October, Texas has never been hit by a hurricane. But, be thankful, you don't wan't to go through what SE Louisiana and the MS coast are going through right now.

Well, that's incorrect. Most recently, Hurricane Jerry on October 15th, 1989.

[Houstonia]

The answer to the original question is no. It is almost all on shore now.

For which I am very grateful. The best thing that can happen is for the 2004 hurricane season to come to a quick and uneventful end.

Roll on November...

2004?

Alright - y'all know what I mean - 2005... sheesh!

[Swimdude]

^ Well, it's unlikely that we'll see a Texas storm this year... I'm not saying it won't happen. Again, the Galveston hurricane hit 105 years ago, yesterday, I believe. So anything can happen. But as for that blob in the BOC yesterday? That won't be it.

[vbhoutex]

^ Well, it's unlikely that we'll see a Texas storm this year... I'm not saying it won't happen. Again, the Galveston hurricane hit 105 years ago, yesterday, I believe. So anything can happen. But as for that blob in the BOC yesterday? That won't be it.

Most definitely anything can happen. I had to rush home from Dallas with 11 teenagers in a van in late October 1989 because Hurricane Jerry was heading right for Houston. So definitely anything can happen.

[susan]

It will be over when it's over...Every year is different just as every storm is different. Just because there is nothing there today does not mean something can not flare up tomorrow just the same as a blob forming one day and be gone the next..And when a storm forms somewhere it more than likely will take it's own route and not pull a "insert name here".......

[HURAKAN]

There seems that nothing will develop from the blow up near the Texas and Mexico coasts because the NHC is paying little or no attention to the activity.