Gulf Coast vs. East Coast Forecast Tracks

[pgoss11]

Is it me or is it more difficult to forecast tracks with east coast hurricanes than those approaching the gulf coast? It always seems to me they can forecast where a hurricane will hit 3 to 5 days out along the gulf but not so along the east coast. Can someone explain that for me?

[southerngale]

I see you've been here for 2 years and this is your first post. Welcome to Storm2k! Hopefully one of the mets or amateurs can answer this question for you. I think depending on the steering currents, it can be difficult in either place. Remember they had Cindy going to Texas 2 days out.

[wxmann_91]

Is it me or is it more difficult to forecast tracks with east coast hurricanes than those approaching the gulf coast? It always seems to me they can forecast where a hurricane will hit 3 to 5 days out along the gulf but not so along the east coast. Can someone explain that for me?

Well, it depends on the situation, but most of the time, east coast hurricanes are harder to track. In the subtropics, midlatitude troughs pick up hurricanes and steer them northward and then eastward over time. Thus, in an example of an east coast storm, a few hundred miles could literally mean whether a hurricane rides up the east coast or recurves harmlessly out to sea. Also, the landfall point is harder to pinpoint, because the storm motion is parallel to the coastline.

[pgoss11]

Thanks southerngale for the welcome and thanks wxmann for the reply. It does make sense

[tronbunny]

oh and doesn't that just keep us on the edge of our seat!


Certainly does make things more interesting, or frustrating as the case may be.
I worry about EC storms because folks are getting comfortable with how accurate the forecasts have been for the well-publicized GOM storms.

I think too many people will just get complacent.. like NC, Jax and central FL.. because O is moving e'ward and the forecasts talk about SC/GA.

[pgoss11]

It's hard to believe anyone would be complacent after what happened with Katrina. Everyone knew she was coming and look what still happened. So very sad.

[EDR1222]

I wouldn't think the people in NC would ever get complacent. They are very familiar with hurricanes and know what to do when one approaches.