Tropical Storm Ophelia

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, interested to see the the 11p advisory.

I did not see that much eastward movement coming. Also did not figure on this much weakening. Both will have a significant effect on the track. May have make some revisions to my specu-cast, but I'll sit tight for now.

I'll check back near the 11p

[HurricaneQueen]

Intermediate advisories are only issued if any warnings are in effect.

How quickly we forget! LOL. I thought of that immediately when the watches and warnings were dropped but out of habit came to see the 8PM update anyway. TGIF DUH.

Lynn

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see if the models keep trending closer to the outerbanks of NC over the weekend.

[nequad]

^I think they will.

[Rainband]

The models are useless in this unsure situation. We will know where she makes landfall when she makes landfall.

[Derecho]

She's a little east of the forecast track....

More than a little; she's a LOT east of the 5PM advisory track. Will really require some revision.

The only global model track she's on is the 18Z GFS; now well east of all the others.

[skufful]

I always say, if they put the bulls eye on me (11:00 AM today) a few days out, it is the best thing because they always seem to go north of the 3-4-5 day forecasts.

[Rainband]

^I think they will.

where are you located??

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS OPHELIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES... 410 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT
240 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 75 MILES...120 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SAT SEP 10 2005

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 77.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 77.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.0N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.2N 76.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.5N 77.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 77.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 77.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

[Anonymous]

Now 100 mph landfall...I guess I predicted right

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING
THE EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 985 MB...
AND THE THAT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 65
KT 25-30 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT A
COMBINATION OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 055/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE
THE THE SHORT TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 10 KT. THE
REASON FOR THE ACCELERATION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT MAY BE RELATED TO
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR OPHELIA TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IN 72-96 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST AND NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE FORECAST THE CURRENT
MOTION...AND IF THE MOTION CONTINUES THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER ADVISORIES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST OPHELIA TO REACH 85 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THAT BEING
SAID...THE CURRENT SHEAR...ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND BROAD STORM STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
HOW LONG THE SHEAR WILL LAST IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
EVOLVE NEAR OPHELIA. AN EXTRA COMPLICATION IS THAT OPHELIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C...EXCEPT
WHEN IT PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE SLOW MOTION OVER
RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM WATER MAY ALLOW THE STORM TO UPWELL COOLER
WATER AND INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE IF IT STRENGTHENED LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.



FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 31.0N 76.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 76.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 31.5N 77.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 77.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 32.5N 79.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 80.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[fci]

Since I live in central Florida I look for a scenerio that will bring the storm toward me. What has to happen is high pressure to build to the north and a little west of Ophelia, then it would be in the NE flow around the high and would go on a SW path followed by a westerly path and eventually make a turn to the north when it is on the west side of the anti-cyclonic flow. A couple of models were showing this scenerio yesterday and this morning but now none are. Also there is an ULL approaching the Ophelia from the west. If the ULL stays south and west of it then it may feel the NE wind flow around it and that could cause a track to the SW.


I dont think any of that is likely and think the storm will end up where the NHC says it will. I just like looking at scenerios that will bring the storm to me.

Ain't gonna happen.
This baby is way too far north to take the trip all the way back to Central Fl.
Not one model shows it anymore and they don't ALL miss something like the senario that you paint.
I still think it will graze the Outer Banks and not come inland over SC or Ga.

DISCLAIMER:
DO NOT MISCONSTRUE THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT THE GUT FEELING OF AN AMATUER!!!

[artist]

fci - unfortunately sounds like the nhc was throwing the models out the window with the 11 pm discussion. Hope youa re right!

[tronbunny]

anyone else out there take that last discussion as great big shoulder shrug?
I'm interpreting those words as...

"None of our model data has matched actual measurements in the past 12-24 hours, so we can't be sure what they're worth for the current runs.
What Ophelia will do in the next 24hrs is a toss up...
Could strengthen and move wnw, or keep going ene and get sheared apart.
your gues is as good as ours "

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bye bye Ophelia or what ever your name is your going to fish land. People take a look at the way the clouds are pointing. They are pointing out to sea. The high is to weak to force the cyclone back from being drawn out. It is quickly moving out to the northeast. BYE BYE OPhelia!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The high is not building in. It is being drawn out ot sea. Say good bye to Ophelia!!!

[artist]

might want to check the latest vortex message

[gatorcane]

I called this a fish like 4 days ago. It's gone...too far north where the westerlies dominate.