2005 CV Season is Winding Down

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We have Ophelia but after that I expect a Caribbean or GOM storm and that is it. The CV season is DONE. The SAL dominates.

[ericinmia]

Just to clear things up... Dry air does not constitute SAL. Actually it takes a wave or strong wind to blow the SAL, with no low lat. waves you can't claim this to be SAL without sampling the atmosphere.

This wasn't directed just at you boca.... i keep seeing people claim SAL whever they see dry air, and are tying the two together. Even the CIMSS SAL maps, they depict dry air not SAL.

In my opinion the Verde season is far from over. We are in a negative phase of the MJO, which isn't helping popping the t-storms and clouds necissary for development. Wait a week and a half... things will get active again; Things happen in bursts.
-Eric

[gatorcane]

in a couple of weeks when the negative MJO phase is gone, throughs in the Eastern Atlantic will either rip apart storms or pull them N.

[MWatkins]

We have Ophelia but after that I expect a Caribbean or GOM storm and that is it. The CV season is DONE. The SAL dominates.

In my opinion...and I am not getting personal here...your comments are as irresponsible as Senator Santorum's.

And I wish you were right on this comment. But unless you can produce any analysis at all that would dispute climatology...especially in a warm Atlantic SST regime...I'm going to have to write this post off as yet another attempt to stir people up.

MW

[gatorcane]

And I wish you were right on this comment. But unless you can produce any analysis at all that would dispute climatology...especially in a warm Atlantic SST regime...I'm going to have to write this post off as yet another attempt to stir people up

.

Mr Watkins with all due respect there is NOTHING coming off the coast of Africa (except the wave coming off now) for at least a week or so and by then we are almost in October. I don't recall a CV storm forming in October and making it to the U.S. I'm sorry.

[gpickett00]

7 days from today will be september 16, thats less than a week past the peak, I dont think it will be quiet

[gatorcane]

after the peak, the number of CV tropical systems drops off dramatically. If nothing forms this weekend (with the wave coming off now), then the CV season is done. That is just my opinion.

[MWatkins]

And I wish you were right on this comment. But unless you can produce any analysis at all that would dispute climatology...especially in a warm Atlantic SST regime...I'm going to have to write this post off as yet another attempt to stir people up

.

Mr Watkins with all due respect there is NOTHING coming off the coast of Africa (except the wave coming off now) for at least a week or so and by then we are almost in October. I don't recall a CV storm forming in October and making it to the U.S. I'm sorry.

We are 20 days from October...we are just now getting to the climatological peak of the season. That leaves 67% of September yet to go...and there countless examples of Cape Verde systems coming across in the 2nd half of September. See Georges for a good example.

And we will be very very very lucky of get through October with 1 storm. But it's not going to happen.

We had 7 named systems in July...this season is not behaving like those of the past.

MW

[gatorcane]

We are 20 days from October...we are just now getting to the climatological peak of the season. That leaves 67% of September yet to go...and there countless examples of Cape Verde systems coming across in the 2nd half of September. See Georges for a good example.

And we will be very very very lucky of get through October with 1 storm. But it's not going to happen.

We had 7 named systems in July...this season is not behaving like those of the past.

MW

Mr. Watkins maybe you are correct but no CV wave has developed ALL season. Why would it develop in late September or October. Okay so we are disagreeing here. My opinion is that at this point even if something develops out there it will be pulled N by a trough. So I don't think we (e.g. U.S) needs to worry about CV systems anymore.

[artist]

boca chris - it is irresponsible to make a comment like that though - what if those that don't know better take you for your word? and let their guard down? there is plenty of time left and this year had been unprecendented in almost all respects - it ain't over 'til it's over!

[Anonymous]

Mr Watkins with all due respect there is NOTHING coming off the coast of Africa (except the wave coming off now) for at least a week or so and by then we are almost in October. I don't recall a CV storm forming in October and making it to the U.S. I'm sorry.

Very irresponsible.

[MWatkins]

We are 20 days from October...we are just now getting to the climatological peak of the season. That leaves 67% of September yet to go...and there countless examples of Cape Verde systems coming across in the 2nd half of September. See Georges for a good example.

And we will be very very very lucky of get through October with 1 storm. But it's not going to happen.

We had 7 named systems in July...this season is not behaving like those of the past.

MW

Mr. Watkins maybe you are correct but no CV wave has developed ALL season. Why would it develop in late September or October. Okay so we are disagreeing here. My opinion is that at this point even if something develops out there it will be pulled N by a trough. So I don't think we (e.g. U.S) needs to worry about CV systems anymore.

Yes we are disagreeing here...which is no problem at all.

I am concerned with every single wave that rolls off the coast at this point. Although sure...we may not see a system get a number at 25W and track across the Atlantic...but to me a pattern that keeps these things together...but weak...is far more dangerous to the US than a bunch of Cape Verde storms. Look at what happened in 1995...all the CV's turned.

Here...we have already had 3 systems develop in the Bahamas...way too close to home...and one of those was the most devestating hurricane in our country's history.

So even though a system developing way east and coming across is less likely now than in mid August...it is a very real possibility. I'm not comfortable writing off that possibility just yet.

MW

[gatorcane]

Yes we are disagreeing here...which is no problem at all.

I am concerned with every single wave that rolls off the coast at this point. Although sure...we may not see a system get a number at 25W and track across the Atlantic...but to me a pattern that keeps these things together...but weak...is far more dangerous to the US than a bunch of Cape Verde storms. Look at what happened in 1995...all the CV's turned.

Here...we have already had 3 systems develop in the Bahamas...way too close to home...and one of those was the most devestating hurricane in our country's history.

So even though a system developing way east and coming across is less likely now than in mid August...it is a very real possibility. I'm not comfortable writing off that possibility just yet.

I respect your opinion. I hope the CV season does not get going in late September/October.

But when I look at Africa, it makes you wonder if it is really over (except the wave currently exiting):

[MWatkins]

Mr Watkins with all due respect there is NOTHING coming off the coast of Africa (except the wave coming off now) for at least a week or so and by then we are almost in October. I don't recall a CV storm forming in October and making it to the U.S. I'm sorry.

Very irresponsible.

Hey FB that's a very good example...

MW

[gatorcane]

yes it is...I guess in this strange 2005 year it could happen but I would bet against it looking at Africa.

[artist]

they are there - just at a lower latitude -

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IDDS-cgi/lis ... ,v=400,p=0

[Anonymous]

yes it is...I guess in this strange 2005 year it could happen but I would bet against it looking at Africa.

Yes...Friday morning Africa was quiet. Saturday morning, a wave is exiting. One day does not decide 40 days.

[ericinmia]

hhmmm...

Also to add something that many people don't consider.....


The Southern Oscillation is about neutral right now, while it has been negative for quite some time. It is forecasted to head postive too. That means that the shear, and deep troughs across the atlantic will be minimized to say the least. (google SOI)

With the MJO, and SOI both eventually coming into posetive phases for the atlantic, i'm predicting that we will have an increased period of activity toward the end of september, around the last week.

There is plenty of reasoning, evidence and presidence to back this up. Its much harder to go against all of that data.
-Eric

[OURAGAN]

I don't think the cape verde season is over.
I remember the landfalling Hurricane Inez in Guadeloupe in 1966/09/27, the landfalling Hurricane Hugo in 1989/09/16.
The longtracker Cape verde Hurricane often occurs after the second part of September, the ridge is more establish from Africa to to the lesser antilles.

[thefixed]

I REALLY doubt this matters since it's not in October. But the statement about a week from now being too late in the year for a US landfalling (or anywhere) Cape Verde storm to occur is really uncalled-for in itself. And I did recall this storm that went right through boca_chris's (and myself's) place of residence with borderline Cat. 4 and Cat. 5 winds. And this made landfall in..well a week from now in 1947. And then went on to make another landfall as a Cat. 1 in Louisiana. I'd say that would constitute as worthy of needing your guard UP. So, I too find this statement unnecessary as well as irresponsible.