Tropical Storm Ophelia

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#921 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:53 am

I never said that she's weaking but she is flying out. It would take a 1050 millibar area of high perssure to stop her.
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#922 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:56 am

true! :D
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#923 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:06 am

:fishing:
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#924 Postby artist » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:44 am

boy! did she just spit out that dry air thru her tail or what?!?!
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
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#925 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:16 am

Looks like shes stalling to me
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#926 Postby NateFLA » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:37 am

She looks like trash right now.... a dying system that needs to do something quick if it is to survive....
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#927 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:02 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The high is not building in. It is being drawn out ot sea. Say good bye to Ophelia!!!


I hope you are not being serious. :roll:
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#928 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:13 am

NateFLA wrote:She looks like trash right now.... a dying system that needs to do something quick if it is to survive....


I disagree. She looks like she's trying to get a little bit better organized now. She's going to be downgraded though at 5am, based on earlier recon reports. Also she's still moving NE, but it's not going out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#929 Postby TampaFl » Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:05 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 100854
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED
TO REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY... WHILE REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 350 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AND OPHELIA COULD AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
Last edited by TampaFl on Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#930 Postby TampaFl » Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:06 am

000
WTNT21 KNHC 100840
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0900Z SAT SEP 10 2005

INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 76.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.9N 76.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 76.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
Last edited by TampaFl on Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#931 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 10, 2005 5:12 am

Those westerlies are something else did anyone notice how fast they shot Nate east?

The shear looks quite strong over Ophelia this morning so the low level and mid level centers may not be quite lined up not to mention the dry air impact.

My uneducated guess would be that Ophelia will loop around to the southeast rather than just stall and turn west.

If the southeast loop scenario does not start to verify today I am going to stop posting on this thread. With a category 2 hurricane forecast to make landfall there will be some people in the forecast landfall areas looking for wind charts, graphs and maps.
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#932 Postby shaggy » Sat Sep 10, 2005 5:15 am

if she doesn't start to slow down she will be past her forecast points soon enough and that may cause a shift of the track.Also if she doesn't flatten out and move westerly like they have her then her landfall would also be further north.Going to be a busy day as when she stops is going to be important for the future of her landfall!
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#933 Postby chicagopizza » Sat Sep 10, 2005 6:44 am

Stupid question...does this mean that, most likely Savannah is out of the woods or could it track south again?
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#934 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:18 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:OK Let's see. Not that anybody was arguing with my speculations or anything. I thought I would check myself to see how my specu-cast is verifying :wink:

Yesterday about this time I said:

1. It would start moving soon because of the ridge to the west.
2. I said it would move mostly North then NE for say 24-36 hrs
3. I said it would get close to the GA coast.
4. After 36 hrs ( maybe more) it would track into near MB in SC
5. No Loop, just wobble/drift/zag along the general course

So far:

#1 = verified
#2 = 24 hrs OK lets see what next 12 brings
#3 = Looking promising one way or another
#4 = Have to wait, but still plausible
#5 = All the models, pros, NHC, and everybody else says different....might be getting ready to eat crow on that :D

Loop looks like it will happen, but I may have just been stubborn on the more eastern track and loop back. I see it more of a slow down, drift and turn. It looks that way to me because Ophelia is moving so slow the trough will keep moving past and she won't get blocked so much as turned. I am past where I know anything about how these things behave when trapped. I will apply the same logic as to a trapped lion, and be careful because they are much more dangerous trapped.


Link to yesterday's post page below,
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73697&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=480



36 hrs specucast update :D

#1 = verified
#2 = Maybe, went more east than I thought
#3 = little farther east
#4 = Coming into focus, more model agreement
#5 = NHC has no loop :D



By 5p tonight, looks like we will have a much better picture. That's when she should slow down and start to turn.
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#935 Postby Jim Hughes » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:21 am

Thunder44 wrote:
NateFLA wrote:She looks like trash right now.... a dying system that needs to do something quick if it is to survive....


I disagree. She looks like she's trying to get a little bit better organized now. She's going to be downgraded though at 5am, based on earlier recon reports. Also she's still moving NE, but it's not going out to sea.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



I agree with you and I anticipated this burst this morning and I mentioned it in my perspective post last night. She was ragged all night but she is having a burst this morning and looking somewhat healthier. Lets see what the 11am discussion/comments say about this recent change.

Jim
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#936 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:32 am

Is there a chance of aNew Englandstrike?
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krysof

#937 Postby krysof » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:44 am

I hope it brings a lot of rain to the northern mid atlantic region, it's been constant dry in new jersey. No rainfall so far this month.
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#938 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:46 am

QUESTION? with a 976 vortex ... if the dry air lifts out suddenly - wont she BOMB big time?
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#939 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:46 am

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050910 1200 050911 0000 050911 1200 050912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
A98E 31.5N 76.6W 32.3N 75.5W 32.8N 74.8W 33.0N 74.8W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050912 1200 050913 1200 050914 1200 050915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
A98E 32.8N 73.8W 31.7N 71.6W 31.4N 69.4W 32.4N 68.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.5N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 77.5W DIRM12 = 51DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 65NM


The 12:00z run came out imcomplete as no intensitys from dship or ship are there.
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krysof

#940 Postby krysof » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:47 am

most likely hurricane at 11 am
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