The Carolina's & Ophelia

[TampaFl]

Not sure how Ophelia is going to make a hard left into the S.C/N.C coast as most of the models indicate. IMHO, would it not be hard for a system to move right into a strong high pressure as shown on the latest 970 - 989 hPa steering flow chart? Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[spinfan4eva]

Not sure how Ophelia is going to make a hard left into the S.C/N.C coast as most of the models indicate. IMHO, would it not be hard for a system to move right into a strong high pressure as shown on the latest 970 - 989 hPa steering flow chart? Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

On that map, it looks to me anyway, like it would have to move out to sea or back to the SW or WSW soon

[weatherwoman]

looks like wilmington nc to me

[Wannabewxman79]

Looks like a little south of Myrtle Beach, SC to Wilmingon, NC at this point but it could change that is for sure. It all depends on when and how hard it turns today.

[NastyCat4]

It is already NE of the "turn point" as indicated by the NHC. If it is going to make SC landfall, it would have to turn immediately.

[huricanwatcher]

going to be an interesting monday..

[pgoss11]

Something tells me landfall will progressively move up the coast with the next few advisories

[jasons2k]

I don't see how anyone can make a realistic landfall prediction until the turn is completed. Depending on the angle once it turns, it could be anywhere from Brunswick to the Outer Banks.

[pgoss11]

Agreed

[ncbird]

........

ache...my little plants just came up in the fall veggie garden, they wouldn't take well to wind and all that rain.

[bartman]

Based on 11AM steering winds at the 400-850 hPa level, Ophelia is neatly sandwiched between two ridges. One is to her NW, the other to her SE. The weakness appears to be northward. Like a watermelon seed between your fingers, she looks to squirt toward the NNW then NNE after she begins to move toward the coast. This track would put NC in more jeopardy than SC, so perhaps a landfall closer to where I live rather than down the coast. I live in a community called "Landfall". Of course, hurricane's can read (ha, ha) and they seem to follow directions on what they read. I want the rain, but not the wind.

You can check out the steering wind image at:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

BTW, for Ophelia's current intensity level (984MB), this level of steering winds seem to dominate according to the preamble on this site.

[bartman]

Forgot to add....

The reason for the initial move to the west, I believe, is that the ridge to Ophelia's SE is building at a greater rate than the ridge to her NW. This ridge formed in the wake of Maria and Nate. This will likely force her toward land until equilibrium is reached, then she shoots NNE to NE as an escape path. This is all my conjecture, of course.

[ncbird]

bartman that is what has me on edge... you all seem to catch the landfall and it leaves me caught in the NE section. Lets hope it keeps moving more east and when it does swing around it will be far enough out that it stays off shore.

[ConvergenceZone]

I heard them say on the news that there is still a possibility that it may remain offshore. It all depends when the turn happens. With the models trending to the right, ya never know. That would be awesome if it would remain offshore. We need some good luck for a change!!!

[txwatcher91]

Am I at risk of getting strong winds here in Greenville,NC?

[UpTheCreek]

Well, I guess it's time to gear up and gas up. About time we at least get some rain!

Now, do I leave the boat in the water or not.....hmmmm....

[dekeoy]

I think I would get the boat out now. The ramp at Wrightsville is already pure chaos, and I'm sure it'll get worse as the day progresses. Good luck! Unfortunately, it looks like I'll be getting called into work sometime in the morning, although, things can change.

[MiamiensisWx]

I was originally forecasting a landfall in coastal central South Carolina near Charleston. Since the storm is now at around the same latitude as near the Georgia/South Carolina border, I now think landfall will be a bit more north of this, possibly near Myrtle Beach or around the South Carolina/North Carolina border. I still think landfall is possible anywhere from coastal central South Carolina northward to around Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Also, the storm is still drifting to the northeast, which is another reason why I think it may make landfall at least a bit more north of near Charleston, South Carolina.

I would watch it if you live anywhere along the coastal Carolinas.

[oceanguync]

the wind has really picked up this morning--I live about 200 yards from the ocean and can tell a differnece in the wind the past three or four hours--the next advisory will be interesting--the weather channel keeps saying how the hunter hurricane hunters are saying how round the eye wal is--what are some predictions about it getting stronger

[MiamiensisWx]

the wind has really picked up this morning--I live about 200 yards from the ocean and can tell a differnece in the wind the past three or four hours--the next advisory will be interesting--the weather channel keeps saying how the hunter hurricane hunters are saying how round the eye wal is--what are some predictions about it getting stronger

I think gradual strengthening is possible at first. Faster intensification may easily pick up later in the forecast period as the storm gradually starts to make the westward turn or even slightly before that occurs.