Tropical Storm Ophelia

Stratosphere747 · #961 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:32 am

I usually try and defend Avila, but a statement like this?

"OPHELIA HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THESE WINDS MAY BE APPROACHING THE COAST EARLIER THAN THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE".

#962 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:50 am

chicagopizza · #963 Postby **chicagopizza** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:51 am

Okay. Not sure what to make of this in regards to my position. Can someone help me figure out if I am not included in this watch? The 11am advisory from the NHC says Lat. 32.03N, 80.86W is the start of the hurricane watch. I am sitting at 31.992, 81.209. That would seem to me like I am not in that zone, but considering how close it appears to be to where I live, I don't know what to think. I have no idea how many miles that is, so if it is a dumb question, please forgive my Anna Nicole moment. :oops:

DESTRUCTION5 · #964 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:55 am

chicagopizza wrote:Okay. Not sure what to make of this in regards to my position. Can someone help me figure out if I am not included in this watch? The 11am advisory from the NHC says Lat. 32.03N, 80.86W is the start of the hurricane watch. I am sitting at 31.992, 81.209. That would seem to me like I am not in that zone, but considering how close it appears to be to where I live, I don't know what to think. I have no idea how many miles that is, so if it is a dumb question, please forgive my Anna Nicole moment.

Get ready..The wind is going to blow...Although landfall looks to be to your north

#965 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:56 am

chicagopizza wrote:Okay. Not sure what to make of this in regards to my position. Can someone help me figure out if I am not included in this watch? The 11am advisory from the NHC says Lat. 32.03N, 80.86W is the start of the hurricane watch. I am sitting at 31.992, 81.209. That would seem to me like I am not in that zone, but considering how close it appears to be to where I live, I don't know what to think. I have no idea how many miles that is, so if it is a dumb question, please forgive my Anna Nicole moment.

The watch begins north of the Savannah River; GA counties are not included at this time.

#966 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:05 am

i think that will change when we start seeing a potential wsw movement....the ridge is building in from the north and from the west....we will see...but GA is not out of the woods

kc4nky · #967 Postby **kc4nky** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:08 am

I've got a bad feeling about this one for us in SC. Although not as bad as Hugo, it still could be significant. I work for SCDOT and we'll definately be in emergency mode soon. We'll try to not have the same fiasco where the last time they evacuated Charleston, it took up to 18 hours to travel from Charleston to Columbia :cry:

I'd tell all the people on the SC coast (especially Charleston north) to keep a very close eye on this one, and start preparing NOW!! Don't get caught unprepared like the people in NO. Don't wait for a government official to tell you what you need to do in this situation, GOD gave you the sense to figgure that out. If you even think you'll need a motel room in the Columbia area, DO IT NOW, they'll be full in just a few hours. This one could be a sleeper, don't let your guard down. :eek:

chicagopizza · #968 Postby **chicagopizza** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:09 am

Thanks for the info! It is much appreciated.

Derek Ortt · #969 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:11 am

Avila is the best forecaster there, but this discussion may not have been one of his better ones. Everyone has bad ones, I had a real clunker during Katrina

beenthru6 · #970 Postby **beenthru6** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:14 am

kc4nky wrote:I've got a bad feeling about this one for us in SC. Although not as bad as Hugo, it still could be significant. I work for SCDOT and we'll definately be in emergency mode soon. We'll try to not have the same fiasco where the last time they evacuated Charleston, it took up to 18 hours to travel from Charleston to Columbia I'd tell all the people on the SC coast (especially Charleston north) to keep a very close eye on this one, and start preparing NOW!! Don't get caught unprepared like the people in NO. Don't wait for a government official to tell you what you need to do in this situation, GOD gave you the sense to figgure that out. If you even think you'll need a motel room in the Columbia area, DO IT NOW, they'll be full in just a few hours. This one could be a sleeper, don't let your guard down.

Well, aren't you just a ray of sunshine? :lol:

#971 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:15 am

beenthru6, are you planning to change your name after Ophelia?

beenthru6 · #972 Postby **beenthru6** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:28 am

Good question, I guess I will have to.

MiamiensisWx · #973 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:32 am

Although she is still looking raggedy, Ophelia now looks healthier and better overall currently, although she does not have deep convection on infra-red imagery at the moment. It looks like she may be trying to develop a more well-defined eye or inner core on infra-red imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

The possible development of a better eye or core appears to be pretty indicated on visible imagery. Clouds are thicker as well.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

She is really fighting hard. There is a huge amount of dry air to her west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

SCHawkFan · #974 Postby **SCHawkFan** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:50 am

Just got home from playing golf in Myrtle Beach. The weather is great today, however quite breezy. I am blaming my poor score on Ophelia.

#975 Postby **webke** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:08 pm

My excuse was that that little white ball had legs and jumped everytime I tried to hit.

#976 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:44 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 101743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...OPHELIA STILL DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

artist · #977 Postby **artist** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:48 pm

seems she may have become somewhat stationary again? anyone else see it?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Derecho · #978 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:48 pm

Big Model shifts at 12Z (ECMWF not out yet.)

UKMET is now a complete miss. NOGAPS barely offshore to Long Island. All the globals except the Canadian have shifted out of SC, including the GFDL.

GUNA consensus is now a track clipping Hatteras and then out to sea.

#979 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:50 pm

#980 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:00 pm

10/1745 UTC 31.7N 76.1W T4.5/4.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean

85 MPH according to DVORAK.

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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