Tropical Storm Ophelia

millibar · #981 Postby **millibar** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:05 pm

Hmmm...
Now "a turn to the west-northwest or northwset is expected on Sunday". Plus a much better defined central core system to boot! A significant change for my neck of the woods.
I wonder if Avila and company have any hair left??? :wink:

Just watch, wait and prepare.
Chuck

BensonTCwatcher · #982 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:18 pm

She's making the turn. stopping against the ridge. little SE movement. She was moving at 3kts last advisory, and I would say the NE motion is over.

Like I said Thursday, pointing to MB,SC. Remains to be seen if she says mostly west, moves SW, or NW after that.

I have not even looked at the models yet, just WV and suface analysis. The models have not and will not get this right on the money, so I have disounted all of them except the globals for synoptic changes.

Just gassed up the generator, dang pecan trees are full of green pecans. Gonna be a mess if we get more than 30 mph winds. Already getting breezy...

NCHurricane · #983 Postby **NCHurricane** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:22 pm

You just can make out the center or rotation on the LTX loop.

http://home.earthlink.net/~hurricane_20 ... txlong.htm

nequad · #984 Postby **nequad** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:31 pm

Major shift in the model guidance...especially the GFDL and UK today. Looks like the new target will be from Wilmington to Hatteras.

#985 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:33 pm

we will see the entire ec is a threat area.....

MiamiensisWx · #986 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:38 pm

Based on the steering currents and the strength of the ridge, I would say landfall is possible anywhere from coastal central South Carolina northward to around Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Derecho · #987 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:04 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:She's making the turn. stopping against the ridge. little SE movement. She was moving at 3kts last advisory, and I would say the NE motion is over.

Nope. It's still NE as of the 18:45Z sat shot. Can be fooled a bit by the lack of clarity of the eye.

#988 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:05 pm

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050910 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050910 1800 050911 0600 050911 1800 050912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.7N 76.2W 32.3N 75.9W 32.5N 75.9W 32.8N 76.8W
BAMM 31.7N 76.2W 32.3N 76.5W 32.5N 77.1W 32.5N 78.6W
A98E 31.7N 76.2W 32.0N 75.6W 32.3N 75.5W 32.2N 75.5W
LBAR 31.7N 76.2W 32.0N 75.1W 32.3N 73.3W 32.1N 71.1W
SHIP 70KTS 74KTS 77KTS 77KTS
DSHP 70KTS 74KTS 77KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050912 1800 050913 1800 050914 1800 050915 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.4N 77.4W 34.6N 77.8W 37.0N 76.2W 39.6N 70.0W
BAMM 32.9N 79.6W 32.8N 80.0W 33.4N 77.1W 33.5N 74.1W
A98E 32.6N 74.6W 33.4N 72.6W 35.8N 70.6W 41.4N 67.2W
LBAR 31.8N 67.7W 31.9N 59.7W 34.1N 54.0W 36.6N 54.4W
SHIP 77KTS 71KTS 60KTS 46KTS
DSHP 77KTS 50KTS 29KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.9N LONM12 = 76.9W DIRM12 = 29DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 29.8N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM

18:00z Models.

#989 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:20 pm

its not moving NE...but, for sake of arguments...ok....and models aren't the greatest this close to land....

cinlfla · #990 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:23 pm

its not moving NE...but, for sake of arguments...ok....and models aren't the greatest this close to land....

I will not disagree with you its not moving northeast its looks more like SE to me....Of course I may have just set myself up for a good bashing but its a fact I'm not seeing any north movement at all with a little luck maybe the Carolinas will be spared

kc4nky · #991 Postby **kc4nky** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:24 pm

I just got back from a fund raiser at the church in Columbia for Katrina victims. I hope the money that we collect won't have to be used on a more local level. We have a couple of members that have homes in Surfside and Myrtle Beach. They were not aware of the latest on Ophellia, and are getting concerned. I wouldn't be suprised if they might not be in church tomorrow. I'm sorry if I sounded so gloom & doom, but maybe I'm a little gunshy after Katrina. I hope it misses all of us, but I'm sure that the hospitals in Columbia are going to be packed to the rafters (they are already taking in patients from the gulf). My wife is an RN at the Heart Hospital in Columbia and they are already getting plans togeather in case they have to move patients in from the coast.

Steve H. · #992 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:25 pm

Latest ugh of the day; 12Z GFS brings her Up towards the Virginny capes, then east, then SE/S ending up near JAX latitude at day 8ish, but at like 72W. :roll:

MiamiensisWx · #993 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:26 pm

Ophelia appears to be wobbling. She just wobbled slightly to the southeast, but appears in the last frame to be moving once again on a more northeast course.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

cinlfla · #994 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:27 pm

Latest ugh of the day; 12Z GFS brings her Up towards the Virginny capes, then east, then SE/S ending up near JAX latitude at day 8ish, but at like 72W.

The last I heard was she was suppose to head north then back to the W/WNW . I've been gone for a few hours so maybe that changed. :roll:

Derecho · #995 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:28 pm

Sorry, it's still pretty obviously moving slowly NE (as of the 19:10Z sat shot.)

Not certain why this is so hard.

vacanechaser · #996 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:48 pm

Derecho wrote:Sorry, it's still pretty obviously moving slowly NE (as of the 19:10Z sat shot.)

Not certain why this is so hard.

I agree, it is already further east of the next forecast point for the last forecast period. All you have to do is plot the forecast points on the vis. image by checking the box at the top of the java player... the next forecast will have it further north, I think into north carolina..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

JamesFromMaine2 · #997 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:06 pm

any chance of it coming into Maine? I am starting the Disaster relief training from the Red Cross so I can help out I wanted to go to the Gulf Coast but the last thing I need is to have to help out in my own state for the first time! lol

krysof · #998 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:15 pm

any chance of it coming near or at new jersey, we had many close calls, but never a direct hit

millibar · #999 Postby **millibar** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:15 pm

I hear ya, KC!
My wife works in the pharmacy at Ner Hanover Regional here in Wilmington, and I'm hearimg the same things from her.
Don't like this continued NE movement, and am REALLY concerned about strengthening. Seems that most of the VERY dry air has passed to the storms S and W. To quote Han Solo; "I've got a very bad feeling about this"!
Will check in later' gotta gas up the car. You and your wife stay safe!!! :roll:

Chuck

cinlfla · #1000 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:18 pm

Sorry, it's still pretty obviously moving slowly NE (as of the 19:10Z sat shot.)

Not certain why this is so hard.

Now it is but it wasn't before....I'm not sure what you mean buy "why this is so hard" :roll:

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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