Entering the Carribean!!!!

raynpa · #1 Postby **raynpa** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:42 pm

There appears to be a wave with a llc moving into the extreme southeastern carribean....but it might be too far south to develop any further...

wzrgirl1 · #2 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:44 pm

link please

raynpa · #3 Postby **raynpa** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:45 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:link please

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

MiamiensisWx · #4 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:46 pm

Here is the link! The wave is in the southeast part of the image near northeastern South America and the southeastern Caribbean. It is a blob of showers and storms.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

wzrgirl1 · #5 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:46 pm

could be a player down the road for sure

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:49 pm

that one?

MiamiensisWx · #7 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:50 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:could be a player down the road for sure

Maybe, but it appears that most of the wave will be moving over land (northeastern South America) soon, which will probably weaken it or end it's developmental chances unless part of it survives or the wave moves in a more northerly or northwesterly direction.

#8 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:50 pm

I noticed that too when I watched the *gag**cough* Tropical Update on TWC today. They of course didn't give any mention of it, but it looks like a fairly impressive thunderstorm complex for now. However, the thunderstorms must persist and it must gain some latitude. If it does both, THEN I'll be pretty concerned about it.

-Andrew92

MiamiensisWx · #9 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 2:51 pm

Andrew92 wrote:I noticed that too when I watched the *gag**cough* Tropical Update on TWC today. They of course didn't give any mention of it, but it looks like a fairly impressive thunderstorm complex for now. However, the thunderstorms must persist and it must gain some latitude. If it does both, THEN I'll be pretty concerned about it.

-Andrew92

Agreed.

southerngreen · #10 Postby **southerngreen** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 4:55 pm

i'm more concerned about what is developing just southeast of florida over the past hour or so.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

any ideas on where this might go?

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 5:00 pm

That wave reminds me of the wave that spawned Charley in 2004

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #12 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 5:18 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:That wave reminds me of the wave that spawned Charley in 2004

Yup they are in a similar area....
Being on FL's west coast...all I can say to that is
:eek:

May bear watch down the road...

2005- the never-ending hurricane season

Frank2 · #13 Postby **Frank2** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 5:21 pm

Re: southerngreen's post

Check your link - there seems to be a problem.

The flare up east of the Bahamas is just an ULL interacting with Ophelia - as the ULL moves westward, the thunderstorms will probably subside by morning.

The NHC did not mention this in their latest TWO, so, I'm sure they know it's nothing more than that...

As for the wave in the southeast Caribbean - we'll see what happens once it enters the Caribbean in the next day or two.

Frank

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 5:51 pm

blobs that far south have very little chance. In fact it is heading for South America. In addition, historically if a CV blob moving east has not developed into at LEAST a depression before reaching the Eastern Caribbean it typically DOES NOT develop.

Chances of development: 0.001%

Nimbus · #15 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 6:42 pm

That area caught my eye as well. There is an anticyclone high over it and it will be moving WNW away from the coast. Given that it is almost the peak of the hurricane season I give it a little better chance of developing. Only thing I see negative is Climo storms don't usually spin up that close to South America. Maybe there will be an invest tommorrow?

#16 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 6:44 pm

shear of 5-10 Knots is forcasted to relax in front of it so we will see. I will wonder if the NHC mentions it in the TWO.

rockyman · #17 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:50 pm

boca_chris wrote:blobs that far south have very little chance. In fact it is heading for South America. In addition, historically if a CV blob moving east has not developed into at LEAST a depression before reaching the Eastern Caribbean it typically DOES NOT develop.

Chances of development: 0.001%

Hmm...1% would mean 1 chance in 100, so you're saying this system has a 1 in 100,000 chance of developing? I find that to be a startling statistic...so basically out of every 100,000 waves that enter the southeastern Caribbean at the absolute HEIGHT of the hurricane season (not even considering the fact that this has been, to date, the busiest season on record) only one will ever develop...would you care to post a little data to support what I consider to be an absurd statement?

Here's some examples of depressions/storms that formed and became great hurricanes while entering the Caribbean:

Entering the Carribean!!!!

Entering the Carribean!!!!

something else?

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