BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

[KatDaddy]

Accu-Weather Discussion:

A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is being closely watched for possible development. A large upper-level low over north-central Mexico is venting the southern and central Gulf, causing enhanced clouds and thunderstorms. The upper-level low will pull away from the Gulf, but another upper-level low over the Yucatan Channel will move into the western Gulf in a couple of days; that may help ventilate the area of low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche. For now, there is too much dry air feeding into the upper-level low from the north, but conditions early next week may become more favorable for slow development of an organized tropical system in the western Gulf.

[perk]

Hurakan how many times have you saw the NHC say absolutely nothing about a particular area of storminess and hours later issue a (SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT).

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan how many times have you saw the NHC say absolutely nothing about a particular area of storminess and hours later issue a (SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT).

That's true, but I have been checking the bouys near the Texas coast and all of them show increasing surface pressures, and the absence of a low pressure at the surface. Probably these factors and the proximity to land, and Ophelia, is making the NHC pay little or no attention to this system.

[perk]

Hurakan you're right the pressure reported by the buoy's you and i can access show no pressure drops, but as Accuweather indicated the pressure is low in the BOC. I can't find a buoy down there.

[hicksta]

Theres no time for development. Its moving ashore now.

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan you're right the pressure reported by the buoy's you and i can access show no pressure drops, but as Accuweather indicated the pressure is low in the BOC. I can't find a buoy down there.

Maybe what ACCUWEATHER is talking about has little or no connection to this blow up of convection.

[perk]

I agree they are totally different areas of concern. Accuweather is monitoring for developement in the BOC. Now whether or not that happens remain to be seen, but i'm getting some much needed rain from the combination of that upper low over Mexico and the thunderstorms in the western GOM.

[Swimdude]

Speaking of onshore, we've been getting dark skies and rain all day from this system.

[susan]

We need the rain.....

[cajungal]

It has been really dry here too. No real rain since Katrina nearly 2 weeks ago. And since we were on the western edge of Katrina here, we did not get much rain from her. It was mostly a wind event here. And they don't have any rain in our forecast at all for all of next week. It is good in one way because I know my neighbors just to my east (the greater New Orleans area) does not need the rain. Because they are still cleaning up after Katrina.