Ophelia fighting hard.
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krysof
Ophelia fighting hard.
Last visible shots had the eyewall redevelop around the center. The west side of it is completely torn and dried out. It's under unfavorable conditions and it should continue to suffer. Dry air is playing a big part. The shear is expected to continue to decrease and that shouldn't be a problem for her. Also slow movement causes the water around it to cool as it takes that energy over and over again. I'm not sure what I will wake up to tomorrow. Will it officially be a fish, will it weaken, will it strengthen, I just don't know.
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Astro_man92
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Re: Ophelia fighting hard.
krysof wrote:Last visible shots had the eyewall redevelop around the center. The west side of it is completely torn and dried out. It's under unfavorable conditions and it should continue to suffer. Dry air is playing a big part. The shear is expected to continue to decrease and that shouldn't be a problem for her. Also slow movement causes the water around it to cool as it takes that energy over and over again. I'm not sure what I will wake up to tomorrow. Will it officially be a fish, will it weaken, will it strengthen, I just don't know.
Well she is inexperienced
I don't think she took advice from her sisters and brothers. I think she is regretting that he he
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Jim Hughes
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The wind field and clouds appear to be strongly expanding outward on the western side also. The way I see this, that storm has some elements which lean toward cat 2, but only weak Cat 1 winds so far, due to dry air west. But moisture is gradually increasing again in the west and shear is decreasing, so I would not be surprised to see a much better looking low cat 2 storm in 6 to 9 hours with low cat 2 winds.
2 cents
2 cents
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Yeah...she has been a morning girl. But that is to be expected from a tropical system. The last satellite frame shows the convection starting to wrap around the center with a hint of deeper red in the NE quad.
The inner core seems to be tightly wound and if this stuff can't kill it nothing will. This storm probably only needs about 12 hours of ideal conditions to rapidly intensify. Good thing is- "near earth wx" may hold her in check.
The inner core seems to be tightly wound and if this stuff can't kill it nothing will. This storm probably only needs about 12 hours of ideal conditions to rapidly intensify. Good thing is- "near earth wx" may hold her in check.
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ncweatherwizard
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We've seen these types of fluctuations in intensity and organization over and over again over the past several days. There's dry air to the west, and there's westerly flow over the storm--that usually means the storm has trouble getting its act together--moreso now with the dry air directly to the west than before.
Scott
Scott
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There's much less dry air there now, compared to 12 hrs ago, and it's moving away SW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
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krysof
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ConvergenceZone
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Jim Hughes
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ConvergenceZone wrote:the thing that might keep it from gaining strength is the significant upwelling due to the slow and often stationary nature of the storm. This was also mentioned on the latest discussion. They said that if it moves as slow as it's forecast, the upwelling could keep it from strengthening.
Yeah I agree. It's going to be hard for a her to strengthen anymore, above the recent 5mph, if she does not get moving. That upwelling could be the east coast's saving grace...if she basically stays stationary for quite a good length of time.
Not sure where's shes going though. I see she wants to keep pushing the models to the right....that goes along with my theories I might add.
Jim
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krysof
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no advance
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no advance
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no advance
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x-y-no
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no advance wrote:Has anyone looked at the Canadian today????
LOL! ...
That would be one for the "weirdest track in history" competition.
Wonder if any storm has ever made landfall in that order, first Carolinas, then central Florida.
cinlfla wrote:Link please?????
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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spinfan4eva
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