New 11PM NHC track

[oceanguync]

a friend just called and he was told that someone told him that the storm2k chat room now said" the storm was going to miss nc and go out to sea---and we could all relax and not worry about the hurricane" sometimes the people on here try to assume the are giving the official hurricane forecast--

[hurricanefreak1988]

Hey, let me clarify what I said. When I said "we" I was referring to my hometown of Fayetteville. The whole state of NC isn't out of the woods just yet. Just making sure nobody interpreted that the wrong way.

[f5]

NC isn't out of the woods until she slides pass the outer banks to the south.

[oceanguync]

thanks for the clarification-

[ncbird]

After 1999 Dennis and his little ring around the rosey off our coast, I never count them out till they gone North of NC.

[ConvergenceZone]

a friend just called and he was told that someone told him that the storm2k chat room now said" the storm was going to miss nc and go out to sea---and we could all relax and not worry about the hurricane" sometimes the people on here try to assume the are giving the official hurricane forecast--

well, people shouldn't believe what they read on Storm2k, and listen to the national hurricane center instead. They need to realize that this is a forum and forums are filled with opinions, not facts... There are alot of smart folks on here and some professional meteorologists as well, but I wonder about those who start unpacking only because they read an OPINION on the board that the storm would be a fish. I would wonder about those folks.

I meant to also say that I"m talking about the "Talkin Tropics" forum, not the "Tropical Analysis forum". I give alot of credit to some of the meteorologists in the "Tropical Analysis" forum and there have been some great predictions there by those folks! They do a great job!

[Andrew92]

Yep, looks like a very good chance of being a fish storm. Every model is calling for "fish" with the NOGAPS just skimming the coast. This is great news!!! The 5 day forecast track hasn't yet shifted with the models completely as the track still brings the storm just a bit inland, but I have a feeling that will be shifted further to the right by 5:00 am and it too will call for a "fish"...


Of course everyone needs to pay attention just in case it does something unexpected. Ya hate to be caught off guard, but this is looking better and better every hour.

We need to keep our hurricane resources down in the South, so I"m sure there are a ton of people praying for "fish" me included. This is the best news all day, that and the fact that it's not strengthening and not really expecting to

Are you kidding me? The official forecast still calls for a landfall in NC, as of 11 PM. In addition, the discussion indicated that only TWO models had Ophelia passing east of Cape Hatteras, the GFS and the GFDL.

I fail to see any good news for now about this storm, other than that it's not intensifying for now. We'll see over tiomorrow if indeed they change to a "fish" track, but posts like this may increase complacency to those in NC. Granted, you say that residents should keep watch, but for the most part, it is not wise to say that the forecasts are likely to trend towards a fish when the official forecast doesn't indicate that (yet).

And I don't even take a C1 hurricane lightly.

-Andrew92

I don't think you read what I said. I said the models are taking this offshore and the forecast track HAS N0T YET AGREED, it doesn't mean that they won't by morning though. Usually the models shift, then the track does. It doesn't always happen at the same time.

Check out the below link. Which of these models other than the NOGAPS it onshore?? I can't find one.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

I see what you're saying now, and at the time you made that post, I was already in bed. However, the models have now, in general, shifted back towards NC.

And I'm totally discounting the BAM Medium, which isn't even a good model for these latitudes.

-Andrew92