NWS employees give Senator Santorum the old 1-2!

[SkeetoBite]

Oh geez, there's plenty of instances where the opposite is just as true as well. Don't cherry pick.....

Ok, to be fair, there have been those times that they have been right. I remember that bad thunderstorm they forecast when I still lived in Michigan. There was the ice storm in upstate New York too. And of course, Bastrdi nailed Katrina 48 hours out as well as what would happen even if there was no direct hit on New Orleans. Great, thats what they get paid for. You don't thank a bank robber for robbing a bank, they're just doing their job.

What I can't stand is the CONSTANT badgering and berating of the National Hurricane Center by Joe Bastardi and company. This is the most unprofessional organization in mass media. Why is it so hard to have a differing opinion, and then just do your own damn forecast without slinging mud??? You and I can disagree and exchange our ideas here with out being rude or obnoxious.

Finally, you can be sure that I will cherry pick the third hurricane to hit my house in 6 weeks when Accu Weather is calling for landfall at the Outer Banks 12 hours before it hit me in Central Florida. Over a year later there are still THOUSANDS of roof with blue tarps everywhere I go. I live 12 miles from the intersection where all three storm crossed last year... of course, Accu Weather didn't cause that to happen, they just couldn't give a good forecast on Francis to save their lives.

[jasons2k]

Oh geez, there's plenty of instances where the opposite is just as true as well. Don't cherry pick.....

Ok, to be fair, there have been those times that they have been right. I remember that bad thunderstorm they forecast when I still lived in Michigan. There was the ice storm in upstate New York too. And of course, Bastrdi nailed Katrina 48 hours out as well as what would happen even if there was no direct hit on New Orleans. Great, thats what they get paid for. You don't thank a bank robber for robbing a bank, they're just doing their job.

What I can't stand is the CONSTANT badgering and berating of the National Hurricane Center by Joe Bastardi and company. This is the most unprofessional organization in mass media. Why is it so hard to have a differing opinion, and then just do your own damn forecast without slinging mud??? You and I can disagree and exchange our ideas here with out being rude or obnoxious.

Finally, you can be sure that I will cherry pick the third hurricane to hit my house in 6 weeks when Accu Weather is calling for landfall at the Outer Banks 12 hours before it hit me in Central Florida. Over a year later there are still THOUSANDS of roof with blue tarps everywhere I go. I live 12 miles from the intersection where all three storm crossed last year... of course, Accu Weather didn't cause that to happen, they just couldn't give a good forecast on Francis to save their lives.

But he (not necessarily AccuWx) was the first to forecast Jeanne's loop. And Ivan's as well. And Isidore's hugging the Yucatan and subsequent demise. So, yes, it does go both ways.

I don't like all the picking on the NHC either, at least not in the way it's presented. I do think JB often has valid points, especially when it comes to intensity and how the NHC is sometimes seems very inconsistent in how they classify systems. He has a point; but it being pointed out with almost every system does get a little old.

I'm not sure of all the motivations. I'll wager that JB's motives are probably a bit different than the "corporate" motivations of Accuwx as a whole. His mission is to simply get it right and call it how he sees it, whether it agrees with the NHC or not. Maybe he feels like the red-headed step child in the business b/c the NHC is the "official" arm for watches/warnings/classifications, etc., and it may bother him (like last night) when there is clearly a 'cane but it's classified as a TS. But I'm not a mind reader; just interpreting his posts.

But yes, I would agree with you he should tone it down and not be rude or obnoxious, but I would also suggest that his knowledge of tropical systems far exceeds many if his critics.

[jasons2k]

One afterthought on his apparent rudeness - he's a husky Italian who grew up in Jersey - would you expect anything different?

[Skywatch_NC]

Not all Italians...and not all New Joisey'ans are of a rude nature.

Eric

[jasons2k]

Not all Italians...and not all New Josey'ans are of a rude nature.

Eric

Well I know; the comment was in jest and not meant to offend

[Downdraft]

As a conservative Republican I'd have to say the Senator is contemptable. I can find no fault with the NWS or NHC when it comes to Katrina and, in fact, they are stellar all season almost every season. He's a cheap PIMP for Accuweather and everyone knows it. I wonder how much they paid him?

[Patrick99]

I'm a Democrat, but this is not a political post. The NWS and Hurricane Center have done d*mned good work for a long time, and for Santorum to say that shows his ignorance. I'd defend their work against any such comments, whether they come from the mouth of a Republican or a Democrat.

[jburns]

It is most unfortunate that Senator Santorum has chosen to exploit a terrible catastrophe for political advantage. That's not the judgment of a leader. In my view, it's not even ethical.

Come on Don. You have to know this is business as usual. Everything from 9/11 to flu shots is exploited politically in Washington.

[Scott_inVA]

Come on Don. You have to know this is business as usual. Everything from 9/11 to flu shots is exploited politically in Washington.

Spin is one thing but there needs to be outrage when the #3 leader of the majority party LIES, not spins...LIES.

Read his quotes in my earlier letter. Shameful.

Scott

[MWatkins]

Betcha' can't find this "Kinder-Cast" map on the Accu Weather website.

This is the company that is supporting Rick Santorum in his bid to turn control of taxpayer funded weather data over to the private sector.

As Hurricane Ophelia 2005 was clearly moving NNE, Accu Weather Meteoroligist Joe Bastardi claims that "extensive research" went into making this forecast map and challenged the National Hurricane Center in their forecasting skills. In his tropical update video, Mr. Bastardi went on the ridicule the NHC and stated "now we'll see who's right". Indeed we have.

Don't even get me started on Francis 2004, which left 15 people dead. There were 10 killed in Florida, 2 in Georgia and 1 in South Carolina. The Outer Banks are still waiting for this hurricane to arrive.

Accu Weather is a Trademark of Accu Weather, Inc.

Oh geez, there's plenty of instances where the opposite is just as true as well. Don't cherry pick. It's not like many of us on this board didn't think the very same, and the GFDL and Euro ideas had merit at the time. As much as I disagree with the Santorum Bill, JB does have his points. Here is JB from today:

"SATURDAY 9 AM. What is Miami up to? The lowering of the this storm this morning...again to a tropical storm is simply flabbergasting. The least they could have done was wait till the plane got in there, but what was the assumption, it was back to 992. Big deal...instead we are finding that its 976 mb.

This is what I keep trying to preach, that there has to be consistency. A storm that deep over that water has to have the wind somewhere to produce the convergence needed for what it now is ..a 90 mph hurricane. The fact the person is using the latest estimation techniques from instruments based on non recon, ( wind estimating devices from satellite) is meaning he is allowing theory to take over against established history.

This is why pressure has to be factored in and the Saffir Simpson scale should be a foundation.

So the game of musical intensity chairs continues and we are expected to sit here and say.,,what...we accept everything.

Again this is not a criticism of a future event, just an observation on something that I think has to be brought under control."

Well...and I am sure this is where I'm going to draw some fire...while there are some who may have ran with the GFDL/Euro solutions...there aren't many people on this board claiming to be better forecasters than the NHC by pretending to put out official forecasts, like Accuweather does.

And that bit about consistency is probably the funniest thing I have ever seen coming from Accuweather...given the 500MN flop in the middle of the night Friday morning.

If they are going to "say" they are a better forecasting organization than the NHC...they should be able to prove it with VERIFIED forecasts. And until then..Accuweather will continue to be the punchline to just about every joke told in the meteorological community. That Crayola (tm) map isn't verifiable by any standard.

MW

[MWatkins]

Oh geez, there's plenty of instances where the opposite is just as true as well. Don't cherry pick.....

Ok, to be fair, there have been those times that they have been right. I remember that bad thunderstorm they forecast when I still lived in Michigan. There was the ice storm in upstate New York too. And of course, Bastrdi nailed Katrina 48 hours out as well as what would happen even if there was no direct hit on New Orleans. Great, thats what they get paid for. You don't thank a bank robber for robbing a bank, they're just doing their job.

What I can't stand is the CONSTANT badgering and berating of the National Hurricane Center by Joe Bastardi and company. This is the most unprofessional organization in mass media. Why is it so hard to have a differing opinion, and then just do your own damn forecast without slinging mud??? You and I can disagree and exchange our ideas here with out being rude or obnoxious.

Finally, you can be sure that I will cherry pick the third hurricane to hit my house in 6 weeks when Accu Weather is calling for landfall at the Outer Banks 12 hours before it hit me in Central Florida. Over a year later there are still THOUSANDS of roof with blue tarps everywhere I go. I live 12 miles from the intersection where all three storm crossed last year... of course, Accu Weather didn't cause that to happen, they just couldn't give a good forecast on Francis to save their lives.

But he (not necessarily AccuWx) was the first to forecast Jeanne's loop. And Ivan's as well. And Isidore's hugging the Yucatan and subsequent demise. So, yes, it does go both ways.

I don't like all the picking on the NHC either, at least not in the way it's presented. I do think JB often has valid points, especially when it comes to intensity and how the NHC is sometimes seems very inconsistent in how they classify systems. He has a point; but it being pointed out with almost every system does get a little old.

I'm not sure of all the motivations. I'll wager that JB's motives are probably a bit different than the "corporate" motivations of Accuwx as a whole. His mission is to simply get it right and call it how he sees it, whether it agrees with the NHC or not. Maybe he feels like the red-headed step child in the business b/c the NHC is the "official" arm for watches/warnings/classifications, etc., and it may bother him (like last night) when there is clearly a 'cane but it's classified as a TS. But I'm not a mind reader; just interpreting his posts.

But yes, I would agree with you he should tone it down and not be rude or obnoxious, but I would also suggest that his knowledge of tropical systems far exceeds many if his critics.

See that's the thing. Joe always discusses what could happen...but that's not a forecast. I could come in here and mention what every single model does all the time...and I do that sometimes...but you cannot attach the word forecast to it. I havent read a JB message anyplace but here in 3 years...and every single update is 5 or 6 different scenarios. None of those are forecasts...those are discussions.

They need to start putting out a verifiable forecast...lat long pairs...winds...at UTC verify times...and then they can take credit for a forecast...instead of being the fortune tellers they are.

MW

[Scott_inVA]

See that's the thing. Joe always discusses what could happen...but that's not a forecast. I could come in here and mention what every single model does all the time...and I do that sometimes...but you cannot attach the word forecast to it. I havent read a JB message anyplace but here in 3 years...and every single update is 5 or 6 different scenarios. None of those are forecasts...those are discussions.

They need to start putting out a verifiable forecast...lat long pairs...winds...at UTC verify times...and then they can take credit for a forecast...instead of being the fortune tellers they are.

MW

When Bastardi went pay I did the "Free Trial" and enjoyed some commets however couldn't justfy paying cash to endure broadbrush forecasting while constantly ripping TPC. Were it free I could choose to read but pay for a steady diet of that crap? No thanks. Before leaving, I did write Joe and ask if he would post SPECIFIC coords 4X/day, prior to TPCs F/A's.

At that time I requested permission to publish his/AccuWeather's coords on my model maps, giving them attribution. I truly was disappointed at a total lack of response...that did surprise me. Since that time: game, set, match with me. Very easy to lob the insults and flamethrow from a safe distance...quite another to put specific locations on the table.

I and others (MW, Derek, DT and more) offer, in different forums, very specific forecasting. I respect any credible individual who has earned the trust of others. When Joe Bastardi ponys up, my opinion would probably change.

Scott

[jasons2k]

See that's the thing. Joe always discusses what could happen...but that's not a forecast. I could come in here and mention what every single model does all the time...and I do that sometimes...but you cannot attach the word forecast to it. I havent read a JB message anyplace but here in 3 years...and every single update is 5 or 6 different scenarios. None of those are forecasts...those are discussions.

They need to start putting out a verifiable forecast...lat long pairs...winds...at UTC verify times...and then they can take credit for a forecast...instead of being the fortune tellers they are.

MW

When Bastardi went pay I did the "Free Trial" and enjoyed some commets however couldn't justfy paying cash to endure broadbrush forecasting while constantly ripping TPC. Were it free I could choose to read but pay for a steady diet of that crap? No thanks. Before leaving, I did write Joe and ask if he would post SPECIFIC coords 4X/day, prior to TPCs F/A's.

At that time I requested permission to publish his/AccuWeather's coords on my model maps, giving them attribution. I truly was disappointed at a total lack of response...that did surprise me. Since that time: game, set, match with me. Very easy to lob the insults and flamethrow from a safe distance...quite another to put specific locations on the table.

I and others (MW, Derek, DT and more) offer, in different forums, very specific forecasting. I respect any credible individual who has earned the trust of others. When Joe Bastardi ponys up, my opinion would probably change.

Scott

Starting with Katrina, JB has been posting actual points/winds/times in his column. He has continued with Ophelia.

And they are not always what "Accuweather" says. His column is separate.

[MWatkins]

See that's the thing. Joe always discusses what could happen...but that's not a forecast. I could come in here and mention what every single model does all the time...and I do that sometimes...but you cannot attach the word forecast to it. I havent read a JB message anyplace but here in 3 years...and every single update is 5 or 6 different scenarios. None of those are forecasts...those are discussions.

They need to start putting out a verifiable forecast...lat long pairs...winds...at UTC verify times...and then they can take credit for a forecast...instead of being the fortune tellers they are.

MW

When Bastardi went pay I did the "Free Trial" and enjoyed some commets however couldn't justfy paying cash to endure broadbrush forecasting while constantly ripping TPC. Were it free I could choose to read but pay for a steady diet of that crap? No thanks. Before leaving, I did write Joe and ask if he would post SPECIFIC coords 4X/day, prior to TPCs F/A's.

At that time I requested permission to publish his/AccuWeather's coords on my model maps, giving them attribution. I truly was disappointed at a total lack of response...that did surprise me. Since that time: game, set, match with me. Very easy to lob the insults and flamethrow from a safe distance...quite another to put specific locations on the table.

I and others (MW, Derek, DT and more) offer, in different forums, very specific forecasting. I respect any credible individual who has earned the trust of others. When Joe Bastardi ponys up, my opinion would probably change.

Scott

Starting with Katrina, JB has been posting actual points in his column. He has continued with Ophelia.

And they are not always what "Accuweather" says. His column is separate.

We're off to a good start here.

I have a database set up that can take in lat/long pairs and verify them out against the prelim best-track file from the NHC...I could provide error rates down to 1 nautical mile...if there was a away I could get ahold of those lat/long pairs with verify times. That could help to settle this debate...

MW

[Terrell]

I'm Democratic myself, and I have problems with Santorum on many levels, but his idea of punishing people for refusing to evacuate prior to future hurricanes is way over the line. No one who isn't a criminal should be dragged from their homes just because "daddy" (or should I say Big Brother) thinks he knows what's best for everybody.

[Scott_inVA]

We're off to a good start here.

I have a database set up that can take in lat/long pairs and verify them out against the prelim best-track file from the NHC...I could provide error rates down to 1 nautical mile...if there was a away I could get ahold of those lat/long pairs with verify times. That could help to settle this debate...

MW

Agreed. My original offer stands and am prepared to plot any data they would be willing to share.

And I'm encouraged to hear JB is posting some specifics in his column or on vid.

As we should have learned w/Katrina, *every* valid voice must be clearly heard and used to get accurate information to the public on a timely basis. That is what this is supposed to be about...not ripping one agency to build up a private company's checkbook. Until AccuWeather finds a way to do so, there will always be scores of people fighting them at every turn.

Scott

[brunota2003]

During an interview Thursday with WITF Public Radio in Harrisburg, Santorum, R-Pa., said, in part, that "the weather service gave no warning, or not sufficient warning in my opinion, as to the effects when it came on land in Florida as a Category One hurricane."


"Predictions were that it wasn't going to go out to the gulf and affect the western gulf coast, it was going to sort of head up to Florida or go right off the coast of Florida."

Jeeze, thats like saying the NHC didnt provide "sufficient" warning time for Coastal North Carolina for Hurricane Isabel, I guess he'll do anything for money...

[beachbum_al]

I think the NHC did a wonderful job of forecasting where Katrina was headed and all of the warnings. They kept saying that anyone along the Gulf Coast should watch this storm and they were not kidding. They said that a storm surge in Mobile Bay was going to happen and they hit it right on the dot. They said that Katrina would be felt all over the Gulf Coast and not focus on where she was going to make landfall because she was so big in size. I think the NHC did a marvelous job on their forecasting.

[SkeetoBite]

Actually, here is EVERY advisory for Katrina, with EVERY forecast map (ok, ok, one map is missing).

Hurricane Katrina NHC Discussion Archive

The very first Katrina Advisory indicated a South Florida Landfall two full days prior to the event. A total of nine advisories were issued by the NHC prior to Katrina making landfall in Florida. Six of the nine advisories issued prior to Katrina coming ashore in South Florida indicated a Cat 1 hurricane at landfall.

Santorum is lying the lies that liars tell to further the interests of his corporate buddies.

[jasons2k]

Actually, here is EVERY advisory for Katrina, with EVERY forecast map (ok, ok, one map is missing).

Hurricane Katrina NHC Discussion Archive

The very first Katrina Advisory indicated a South Florida Landfall two full days prior to the event. A total of nine advisories were issued by the NHC prior to Katrina making landfall in Florida. Six of the nine advisories issued prior to Katrina coming ashore in South Florida indicated a Cat 1 hurricane at landfall.

Santorum is lying the lies that liars tell to further the interests of his corporate buddies.

Exactly!