Tropical Storm Ophelia

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050911 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050911 1200 050912 0000 050912 1200 050913 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 75.7W 31.7N 76.2W 32.1N 77.0W 32.6N 77.7W
BAMM 31.6N 75.7W 31.9N 76.2W 32.4N 77.3W 32.8N 78.1W
A98E 31.6N 75.7W 31.9N 76.0W 32.0N 76.2W 32.0N 76.3W
LBAR 31.6N 75.7W 31.6N 75.5W 31.8N 75.6W 31.5N 75.6W
SHIP 75KTS 77KTS 76KTS 76KTS
DSHP 75KTS 77KTS 76KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050913 1200 050914 1200 050915 1200 050916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.0N 78.1W 34.8N 78.3W 38.3N 74.8W 44.4N 64.6W
BAMM 32.9N 78.6W 33.9N 78.3W 36.6N 74.2W 39.9N 65.7W
A98E 32.4N 76.1W 33.6N 74.6W 36.8N 71.5W 42.2N 62.4W
LBAR 31.3N 75.8W 30.6N 76.6W 30.7N 77.9W 31.0N 78.5W
SHIP 73KTS 63KTS 53KTS 42KTS
DSHP 73KTS 63KTS 53KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 75.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 31.8N LONM12 = 75.9W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 31.5N LONM24 = 76.6W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 130NM


12:00z Models.

[scostorms]

She is going to hit Long Island?!

[wxwatcher91]

I think Ophelia will do a larger loop than the NHC is forecasting. I wouldnt be suprised to see her scoot over to 74W and south to 31N...

[skufful]

I think Ophelia will do a larger loop than the NHC is forecasting. I wouldnt be suprised to see her scoot over to 74W and south to 31N...

Are they back on the loop theory again?

[Skyline]

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/map ... query=true

Comming back south and west? Will they adjust the track back south @ 11am?

[WindRunner]

Beware of that LBAR, it senses a u-turn ahead

Most of them give a short-term W to SW motion.

[krysof]

The Lbar is very inaccurate and one of the worse models to use.

[cjrciadt]

[NCHurricane]

Four hits, four misses, and one outlier (LBAR).

Rather undecided.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z SUN SEP 11 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N 75.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.9N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.7N 76.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[stormynorfolk]

Looks like Cape Lookout is now expected to take the strike. I'm sure this will change again several times.

[Brent]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA STILL STATIONARY...SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[JtSmarts]

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 21


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 11, 2005



Air Force reconnaissance observations over the last few hours showed
maximum flight-level winds of 74 kt...with little change in central
pressure. The current intensity is reduced slightly...to 70 kt.
The system appears well organized and vertical shear is not
expected to become prohibitively strong during the next few days.
Two factors mitigating against intensification are the presence of
dry air...as evidenced by surface observations from South Carolina
and North Carolina showing dew points in the low sixties...and
cooler waters upwelled beneath this slow-moving Hurricane. Ophelia
is likely to traverse a section of the Gulf Stream over the next
few days... however...which would favor some intensification.
Given these mixed signals...the official forecast does not call for
a significant change in strength. This is very similar to the
latest SHIPS forecast as well.

Ophelia continues stuck between two mid-level high pressure
areas...and unable to make contact with the westerlies. Little
change in this steering...or lack of steering...regime is likely
for the next day or two. By around 72 hours...global model
guidance shows a large mid-latitude trough advancing into the
central United States. This feature should break down the blocking
high to the northwest of the hurricane and allow Ophelia to begin
moving on a north-northwestward or northward heading. The latest
GFS run has shifted a little to the west of the previous one at
days 3-5...but the new NOGAPS run has shifted a little to the east.
The official forecast takes the tropical cyclone over/near eastern
North Carolina in about 3 days...and is very similar to the forecast
from the previous advisory. It should be added that 3-day track
forecasts can easily be in error by 200 nautical miles.
No adjustments are made to the Hurricane Watch area at this time
since there has been little movement...and the forecast track
through 72 hours has not changed.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 31.6n 75.7w 70 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 31.6n 75.7w 70 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 31.9n 76.1w 75 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 32.2n 76.5w 75 kt
48hr VT 13/1200z 32.7n 76.7w 75 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 34.5n 76.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 15/1200z 37.5n 74.5w 50 kt
120hr VT 16/1200z 40.5n 71.0w 40 kt


$$

[webke]

I have notices that over the last 5 hours that the outer bands of Ophelia have changed direction, early this morning they were moving offshore of NC and now they are beginning to move back on shore. Does this mean that they high to the east is losing strength and the the high in the Atlantic is getting stronger.

[Stephanie]

Well, we can use the rain up here in southern NJ. It's been rather dry the last few weeks.

[HurricaneGirl]

I hope she just goes out to sea and gets out of dodge already. Crazy thing.

[spinfan4eva]

Looks like some of the models are starting to notice her southward movement

[webke]

I do not know how to copy these to this forum so I posted the link.
If you look at the latest model for steering layer 400 to 850 the low that was next to Ohio has now drifted southwest. What I am wondering is what affect will this have on Ophelia.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html