Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Brent]

Looks like some of the models are starting to notice her southward movement

Those are old... the evening runs last night.

[Nimbus]

That little loop to the southeast did delay the landfall warnings at least a day.
One model landfalling in each state now, take your pick.
Keeping the NHC track running up the coast will keep everyone prepared.
As long as the ridge is still to Ophelias west I doubt she will gain much latitude she looks pretty well trapped.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 111730
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS MEANDERED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[seahawkjd]

Looking at the latest advisory the pressure has started to drop again, not much, but 2 mbs is still a drop. Also if you look at the radar it looks like the high clouds are really making a come back on the west side of the storm and the cdo is wrapping around the area where the eye wall was open. Am I completly off on this or does it look like the storm is starting to get its act together more?

[krysof]

It's getting more defined, but the cloud tops are not really cold yet, so the winds aren't that strong. Ophelia reminds me of an intense nor'easter.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050911 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050911 1800 050912 0600 050912 1800 050913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 76.0W 31.7N 76.5W 32.0N 77.1W 32.3N 77.4W
BAMM 31.6N 76.0W 31.9N 76.9W 32.2N 77.9W 32.3N 78.6W
A98E 31.6N 76.0W 31.7N 75.9W 31.7N 75.5W 32.2N 75.7W
LBAR 31.6N 76.0W 31.4N 76.0W 31.4N 76.1W 31.1N 76.4W
SHIP 70KTS 68KTS 69KTS 68KTS
DSHP 70KTS 68KTS 69KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050913 1800 050914 1800 050915 1800 050916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.9N 77.5W 35.5N 77.3W 38.9N 73.5W 44.0N 65.8W
BAMM 32.7N 78.8W 34.2N 78.4W 35.6N 75.1W 36.9N 69.6W
A98E 32.5N 75.5W 32.9N 74.6W 34.5N 72.1W 34.8N 70.2W
LBAR 31.0N 76.6W 30.9N 77.7W 30.7N 79.2W 30.5N 79.9W
SHIP 66KTS 60KTS 53KTS 41KTS
DSHP 66KTS 58KTS 44KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 76.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 75.9W DIRM12 = 140DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 31.7N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 140NM




18:00z Models.

[Regit]

GFDL is quite interesting, given what it's said in the past. Could we see a model consensus back toward Wilmington coming?

[Al_Macinnis fan]

IMo this is a 90mph storm right now. I dont know why NHC is playing games again and lowered the windspeeds again when it gets better organized. Even if the GFDL track did pan out the SST around Long Island are only low 70s and and north of Boston have cooled to the 60s. So we wont see the "doomsday" people claim will happen to new york city.

[webke]

12Z GFDL has shifted back into SC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Al_Macinnis fan]

12Z GFDL has shifted back into SC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

maybe the Gulf stream has enough in the tank to crank this thing up. I was reading how the last few years the Gulf stream is shrinking is size.

[beenthru6]

12Z GFDL has shifted back into SC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Good grief Ophelia, make up your mind already!

[Three Blind Mice]

Upwelling having effect. West movement appears to have started.

[deltadog03]

looks to be moving or drifting to WSW....maybe the high is stronger than forecasted??? that would NOT be the first...or heck the last time...

[Three Blind Mice]

Structure looks better but cool waters are limiting any strengthening. Rainbands are closer now to making ilm.

[webke]

Ophelia is definitely decide at this point to head west maybe with a southern touch added to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Regit]

So what is everyone's thoughts with the GFDL? It is often called the most reliable model. I think NHC will hesitate to move the forecast at 5:00, but you never know. I think the storm may indeed approach MB, but then turn away offshore, maybe clipping Wilm. I'll feel more confident in that if it still looks to be going SW in 3 hours or so. And no, that's not any official forecast. Mainly based on the fact that it seems every hurricane is supposed to go to MB, then turns to Wilm.

[webke]

Considering where I live I hoe the GFDL moves somewher else that is not to populated, at the moment it is going right over my house.

[Skyline]

I think they will.
Ophelia is already south and west of their forecast point for this time.
Other models are shifting back south too.

Check out the buoy: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

Also Frying Pan Shoals right off ILM:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

That's a cane.

And look how the western side of Ophelia is making a come back!

Much darker and windy now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK Let's see. Not that anybody was arguing with my speculations or anything. I thought I would check myself to see how my specu-cast is verifying

Yesterday about this time I said:

1. It would start moving soon because of the ridge to the west.
2. I said it would move mostly North then NE for say 24-36 hrs
3. I said it would get close to the GA coast.
4. After 36 hrs ( maybe more) it would track into near MB in SC
5. No Loop, just wobble/drift/zag along the general course

So far:

#1 = verified
#2 = 24 hrs OK lets see what next 12 brings
#3 = Looking promising one way or another
#4 = Have to wait, but still plausible
#5 = All the models, pros, NHC, and everybody else says different....might be getting ready to eat crow on that

Loop looks like it will happen, but I may have just been stubborn on the more eastern track and loop back. I see it more of a slow down, drift and turn. It looks that way to me because Ophelia is moving so slow the trough will keep moving past and she won't get blocked so much as turned. I am past where I know anything about how these things behave when trapped. I will apply the same logic as to a trapped lion, and be careful because they are much more dangerous trapped.


Link to yesterday's post page below,
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73697&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=480

36 hrs specucast update

#1 = verified
#2 = Maybe, went more east than I thought
#3 = little farther east
#4 = Coming into focus, more model agreement
#5 = NHC has no loop



By 5p tonight, looks like we will have a much better picture. That's when she should slow down and start to turn.

Updating a little later here, since this storm has moved much slower during the last period than I thought it would. It is only valid in that it is interesting to check to see how your own guesses measure up. The NHC is THE best source of public information for hurricanes, so there is no confusing things when somebody like me makes a lucky call here or there.


Now, let's see how things are shaping up:

Since points 1-3 are in the books so to speak, I'll on 4 and 5.


#4 = Way slower motion that I thought, but the NHC got it wrong, Derek did, all the best did, so I don't feel bad. Ophelia looks poised to end up in NC, but that very easily could change. I will stick by my thoughts and stay with a move toward MB and a recurve into NC for a landfall somewhere between NC/SC line and OBX. The forward motion looks like it is continuing now, and if in the next 6-12 hours continues, it will be the push toward the coast. The high pressure took longer to move over the NE US and so the turning toward the coast has happened later and further north. The other scenario (next most likely) is a re-curve off the OBX to sea. if it gets that far, the westerlies will have thier way.



#5 = I still am not sure if she crossed her own path here, but if she did, crow is served and will be eaten. I really thought this movement would have happened sooner, farther south.


The models don't seem to do well with slow moving systems i.e. 2-6 kts. and it seems like she has been moving in that range for a while. The speed will be a real key as to final track and intensity. Not likely to a major under any scenario, but still has a lot of potential to be a dangerous landfall for somebody.

[feederband]

Does anyone else see that maybe it is moving slow to sw on the vis..And what that may mean..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html