Ophelia fighting hard.

[no advance]

That is the only outlaying model. I still think it has the potential to be a Cat 2 if it starts moving west. .

[no advance]

Nogaps is the worst I believe where it hits long island avoiding North Carolina.

[cinlfla]

Oh yes I remember Gordon that was another very annoying storm to track. I was tracking that with with updates from the news and a paper tracking map

[pgoss11]

People here in sne are so complacent about storms . We haven't had a storm in so long I don't think people along our low lying coastal areas would evacuate. Even with a cat 1 storm the flooding potental is enormous. Most people living along the coast weren't even alive the last time we had a direct hit. I would be very concerned if it misses the outer banks and slams into long island, especially if it were accelerating on the way out.

[ConvergenceZone]

First time I've checked the track and models today since last night, and the track shifted east just as I thought. It may still skim the coast, but at least it's staying weak. The winds won't be a problem at all with this storm, but the rain will. Hopefully it will speed up real soon.

[krysof]

Well if it speeds up, there is a better chance of really stregthening as it moves from the cool upwelling waters.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, this storm has more against it besides upwelling. Like mentioned in the latest discussion, there is alot of dry air hindering development, and this isn't expected to change anytime soon. They even mentioned this on TV with a report from the NHC. True it has the gulf stream, but because of the dry air and lack of time prior to landfall, they don't expect it to really strengthen. In fact, the strength forecast is quite a bit lower than it was yesterday morning at this time. In my opinion, this will either be a very weak hurricane or strong tropical storm at landfall. Hopefully it's convection will weaken a bit prior to landfall to limit the rainfall just a bit.