Tropical Storm Ophelia

[feederband]

I'm feeling a little QUASI-STATIONARY right now...

[feederband]

NHC advisory is wrong IMHO

...The ball games are on and probably no big bosses their.. They should have just said check back at 11:00....

Or in the next 24 to 48 hours!

LOL....

[spinfan4eva]

NHC advisory is wrong IMHO if I am looking at this right. Take a look at this visible still shot and you can clearly see the eye East of Brunswick Ga. But on the plot, it is east of Savannah. I think its a difference of 1/2 of a degree and it is closer to 31.0N vs 31.5N

Savannah is at 32.0N.

OOPS, I just looped it and turned on the NHC plots, they were right

[Skyline]

Why is recon finding a weakening system, but buoys all around the storm are seeing a general drop in pressure?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Southeast.shtml

[stormynorfolk]

Why is recon finding a weakening system, but buoys all around the storm are seeing a general drop in pressure?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Southeast.shtml

Not sure, but the movement to the west has this one rising rather quickly, good wind gusts still however:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

BTW... pressure's are dropping because the high is moving away... where ever the lowest pressure drops occur, should give an insight as to where the big 'O' is going.

[feederband]

Did she just get her top blowned off or is that just some dry air in th sw quad....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PTrackerLA]

She sure looks very sickly this evening. It's interesting how storms off the east coast (north of Florida) have a tendency to look weak like this while gulf storms have much more convection.

[krysof]

I think her death has come, she isn't looking any better but looking worse, goodbye Ophelia, dry air do your thing and cool waters do your thing.

[feederband]

I think her death has come, she isn't looking any better but looking worse, goodbye Ophelia, dry air do your thing and cool waters do your thing.

Wouldn't say death yet...Enviroment could change on a dime..Kind of like the tracks..

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES. A NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF OPHELIA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 56 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[shaggy]

its amazing what the gulf stream can do for storms off the SE coast so death is not a bet until the fat lady sings but on a different note the new GFS is further west again if i am right!



new GFDL is even further south yet again and shows a central SC hit go figure!!!!!!

[Rainband]

Look at the SST's and if she doesn't move soon, she may spin in place and weaken. That would be good news for the SE or where ever she winds up..if she doesn't go out to sea. This has definately been a fickle storm.

[Derek Ortt]

if she moves, she'll likely intensify very rapidly as the environment has become more favorable today with an anti-cyclone aloft and the dry air moderating

if it doesnt move, its a goner

[krysof]

she will move once the high slides further east, by late tomorrow, I think we should see actual movement, no drifting of stalling

[shaggy]

local NWS has now upped my wind forecast to TS strength as a east wind which implies the storm being south of me and thats just the first mention of it they just have us as windy on Wednesday since they will not know the actual track until she starts her movement


Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Windy, with a east wind between 30 and 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

[huricanwatcher]

local NWS has now upped my wind forecast to TS strength as a east wind which implies the storm being south of me and thats just the first mention of it they just have us as windy on Wednesday since they will not know the actual track until she starts her movement


Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Windy, with a east wind between 30 and 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

ncdowneast...... not complaining but seems local weather here is almost always OFF

[shaggy]

true but the fact that they now have the grapes to start call wind speeds in the area is important cause morehead city is usually tight lipped when it comes to calling a storm!

[NCHurricane]

true but the fact that they now have the grapes to start call wind speeds in the area is important cause morehead city is usually tight lipped when it comes to calling a storm!

I'm glad that I'm not the only one that thinks that.

[huricanwatcher]

true but the fact that they now have the grapes to start call wind speeds in the area is important cause morehead city is usually tight lipped when it comes to calling a storm!

how right you are......

[BensonTCwatcher]

Perhaps we all are just convinced that the stupid storm CAN'T just sit there another few days. Move, die, turn, something....

Oh no...it's finally gettting to me