Tropical Storm Ophelia

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050912 0000 050912 1200 050913 0000 050913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 76.2W 31.5N 77.1W 31.8N 77.9W 32.1N 78.4W
BAMM 31.2N 76.2W 31.7N 77.3W 31.9N 78.0W 32.0N 78.6W
A98E 31.2N 76.2W 30.9N 77.1W 31.0N 77.0W 31.7N 77.1W
LBAR 31.2N 76.2W 31.2N 76.8W 31.2N 77.5W 31.1N 78.2W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 68KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050914 0000 050915 0000 050916 0000 050917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.6N 78.9W 34.8N 78.9W 39.0N 73.6W 46.7N 65.1W
BAMM 32.2N 78.6W 34.0N 77.5W 37.3N 72.7W 42.8N 63.1W
A98E 32.7N 76.2W 35.3N 73.1W 37.7N 71.8W 41.4N 66.8W
LBAR 31.1N 79.1W 31.7N 80.6W 32.1N 81.4W 30.6N 80.8W
SHIP 71KTS 70KTS 68KTS 58KTS
DSHP 71KTS 70KTS 68KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.6N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 31.8N LONM24 = 75.9W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 140NM


00:00z Models.Show it moving 240 or SW at 5 kts.

[Rainband]

Thats interesting

[pgoss11]

Making an inverted loop?

[shaggy]

the local NWS has a wind advosiry for the OBX with gusts into the 50's tonight.I guess theres no TS warning because these winds are not directly related to ophelia but the gradient right?Why wouldn't the NHC move the watches and warnings further NE along the coast if these conditions were already being felt!

[Rainband]

You answered your own question

[BensonTCwatcher]

The SW movement makes sense looking at this map. How long it might go on is hard to say. No expereince here with a storm that goes back SW along the EC.

[shaggy]

i went with the logical explanation but seems weird that with the forecast track by the NHC its on the eastern edge of there watches!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050912 0000 050912 1200 050913 0000 050913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 76.2W 31.5N 77.1W 31.8N 77.9W 32.1N 78.4W
BAMM 31.2N 76.2W 31.7N 77.3W 31.9N 78.0W 32.0N 78.6W
A98E 31.2N 76.2W 30.9N 77.1W 31.0N 77.0W 31.7N 77.1W
LBAR 31.2N 76.2W 31.2N 76.8W 31.2N 77.5W 31.1N 78.2W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 68KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050914 0000 050915 0000 050916 0000 050917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.6N 78.9W 34.8N 78.9W 39.0N 73.6W 46.7N 65.1W
BAMM 32.2N 78.6W 34.0N 77.5W 37.3N 72.7W 42.8N 63.1W
A98E 32.7N 76.2W 35.3N 73.1W 37.7N 71.8W 41.4N 66.8W
LBAR 31.1N 79.1W 31.7N 80.6W 32.1N 81.4W 30.6N 80.8W
SHIP 71KTS 70KTS 68KTS 58KTS
DSHP 71KTS 70KTS 68KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.6N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 31.8N LONM24 = 75.9W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 140NM


SW at 5 kts according to this 00:00z run.

[wxman57]

Those BAM models are completely worthless for storms in the subtopics. Why even bother to look at them? Each run has had Ophelia going in a different direction. And LBAR had Ophelia in Ireland in 5 days a few runs ago. Now it says west. The only use for the BAMs is in estimating westerly movements of tropical waves south of 20N.

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050912 0000 050912 1200 050913 0000 050913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.2N 76.2W 31.5N 77.1W 31.8N 77.9W 32.1N 78.4W
BAMM 31.2N 76.2W 31.7N 77.3W 31.9N 78.0W 32.0N 78.6W
A98E 31.2N 76.2W 30.9N 77.1W 31.0N 77.0W 31.7N 77.1W
LBAR 31.2N 76.2W 31.2N 76.8W 31.2N 77.5W 31.1N 78.2W
SHIP 65KTS 65KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 65KTS 65KTS 68KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050914 0000 050915 0000 050916 0000 050917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.6N 78.9W 34.8N 78.9W 39.0N 73.6W 46.7N 65.1W
BAMM 32.2N 78.6W 34.0N 77.5W 37.3N 72.7W 42.8N 63.1W
A98E 32.7N 76.2W 35.3N 73.1W 37.7N 71.8W 41.4N 66.8W
LBAR 31.1N 79.1W 31.7N 80.6W 32.1N 81.4W 30.6N 80.8W
SHIP 71KTS 70KTS 68KTS 58KTS
DSHP 71KTS 70KTS 68KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.6N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 31.8N LONM24 = 75.9W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 140NM


00:00z Models.Show it moving 240 or SW at 5 kts.

[Rainband]

[quote="wxman57"]Those BAM models are completely worthless for storms in the subtopics. Why even bother to look at them? Each run has had Ophelia going in a different direction. And LBAR had Ophelia in Ireland in 5 days a few runs ago. Now it says west. The only use for the BAMs is in estimating westerly movements of tropical waves south of 20N.

Every model seems useless with this storm. I have seen the models and the forecasts change numerous times. With all due respect. The Forecast with this storm is written by the hour. Even the Pros seem lost Ophelia is the only "one" that knows where she will wind up

[wxman57]

Satellite indicates that Ophelia's core has collapsed. Looks similar to Isidore of 2002 after straying over the Yucatan for a while. Wind field is expanding as did Isidore's, too. It can take 36-48 hours for a hurricane to regain its core. It would appear that dry air has been entrained into the center. Dew points are in the low-mid 50s across the Carolinas, and that air is flowing offshore.

One other thing about such systems, standard flight level to surface wind conversion factors may not apply. That is, the higher winds aloft don't transfer down to the surface as well. So the recon plane may find winds at 700mb that would normally support 65 kt surface winds, though Ophelia may have surface winds considerably lower than 65kts.

[cycloneye]

In other words 57 it looks like a downgrade to tropical storm is in order.

[wxman57]

Those BAM models are completely worthless for storms in the subtopics. Why even bother to look at them? Each run has had Ophelia going in a different direction. And LBAR had Ophelia in Ireland in 5 days a few runs ago. Now it says west. The only use for the BAMs is in estimating westerly movements of tropical waves south of 20N.

Every model seems useless with this storm. I have seen the models and the forecasts change numerous times. With all due respect. The Forecast with this storm is written by the hour. Even the Pros seem lost Ophelia is the only "one" that knows where she will wind up

Yeah, you're right, there. No model has done well with Ophelia. I was preparing the 9am track 3-4 days ago (we issue our track an hour ahead of the NHC). After studying the data for over an hour, I had no clue what to forecast. Confidence was about zero. Storms caught in a region with no discernable steering currents are not easy to forecast.

[wxman57]

In other words 57 it looks like a downgrade to tropical storm is in order.

Oh, most definitely. If the recon plane is dropping some dropsondes to measure surface winds, they SHOULD be able to detect that the standard 90% conversion for 700mb is not correct. I see the plane found a 74kt wind, which would normally convert to a 67kt surface wind from 700mb. So we'll see what they call Ophelia at 10pm. I figure it may have 50-55kt surface winds.

[LarryWx]

Storm Name: OPHELIA (16L)
Time: 00:29:50Z
Latitude: 31.2°N
Longitude: 76.2°W
[/quote]

Is this correct? 31.2N? If so, she's now all the way down to the latitude of Brunswick... (it was estimated to be 31.4N as of the 8 PM advisory and 31.5N as of the 5 PM advisory). Also, knowing that the most recent NAM and NGM models (though pretty poor for TC's ) had it hitting very near the GA coast, and realizing that the 5PM advisory had it drifting WNW immediately whereas it has since drifted SW, this tells me that GA is not completely out of risk for a landfall by any means just yet. The good news is that it seems to be either slowly weakening or at least not strengthening at this time.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Really is breaking down. The cooler SST's, dry air are taking a toll. I am thowing out all of my earlier thoughts. It has sat there too long. I had thought the high would be farther east by now.

I still think it will move around the ridge when it gets there, but the larger synoptic pattern is looking a bit different coming up. It may well drift SW for a while, or just spin itself out, or resume and make weak landfall in SC or NC. The SW movement and looping over warmer gulf stream currents would seem to be the best chance for re-development. But that would be rare climo-wise. I don't think I have seen a system so "caught" between two strong ridges like that.

[wxman57]

Storm Name: OPHELIA (16L)
Time: 00:29:50Z
Latitude: 31.2°N
Longitude: 76.2°W

Is this correct? 31.2N? If so, she's now all the way down to the latitude of Brunswick... (it was estimated to be 31.4N as of the 8 PM advisory and 31.5N as of the 5 PM advisory). Also, knowing that the most recent NAM and NGM models (though pretty poor for TC's ) had it hitting very near the GA coast, and realizing that the 5PM advisory had it drifting WNW immediately whereas it has since drifted SW, this tells me that GA is not completely out of risk for a landfall by any means just yet. The good news is that it seems to be either slowly weakening or at least not strengthening at this time.[/quote]

Forget the NAM. I don't even think it could be climo for forecasting a tropical cyclone. The NAM seems to be forecasting random directions for Ophelia. Sometimes north, sometimes east, sometimes south. Don't ever use it for tropical systems. But Ophelia could well track west for a while before turning north in a few days. Such movement could bring TS force winds to South Carolina northward. The good news is that without its core, you're looking at a moderate TS vs. the potential for a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Look at the cool waters (Blue area) where Ophelia is and that is causing the weakening.

[Thunder44]

Look at the cool waters (Blue area) where Ophelia is and that is causing the weakening.

In case you aren't aware, those aren't actual sea surface temps you are seeing on the map. It is showing SST anormalies. The water temp is about one or two degrees below normal of the SE coast, but that doesn't mean it isn't warm enough to support a hurricane.

[Rainband]

Those BAM models are completely worthless for storms in the subtopics. Why even bother to look at them? Each run has had Ophelia going in a different direction. And LBAR had Ophelia in Ireland in 5 days a few runs ago. Now it says west. The only use for the BAMs is in estimating westerly movements of tropical waves south of 20N.

Every model seems useless with this storm. I have seen the models and the forecasts change numerous times. With all due respect. The Forecast with this storm is written by the hour. Even the Pros seem lost Ophelia is the only "one" that knows where she will wind up

Yeah, you're right, there. No model has done well with Ophelia. I was preparing the 9am track 3-4 days ago (we issue our track an hour ahead of the NHC). After studying the data for over an hour, I had no clue what to forecast. Confidence was about zero. Storms caught in a region with no discernable steering currents are not easy to forecast.

I hope my post didn't seem rude. The conditions are what is making this so hard to forecast and thats waht I was eluding to