Tropical Storm Ophelia
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cycloneye
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Yes Thunder I should haved said Cool Anomalies.
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Thunder44 wrote:cycloneye wrote:
Look at the cool waters (Blue area) where Ophelia is and that is causing the weakening.
In case you aren't aware, those aren't actual sea surface temps you are seeing on the map. It is showing SST anormalies. The water temp is about one or two degrees below normal of the SE coast, but that doesn't mean it isn't warm enough to support a hurricane.
Current SST's in the region outside of the Gulf Stream are in the 79-81F range, which while below normal, are warm enough to sustain at least a cat 1 under the right conditions. However, they should continue to cool more until the storm leaves the area.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
wxman57 wrote:
Forget the NAM. I don't even think it could be climo for forecasting a tropical cyclone. The NAM seems to be forecasting random directions for Ophelia. Sometimes north, sometimes east, sometimes south. Don't ever use it for tropical systems. But Ophelia could well track west for a while before turning north in a few days. Such movement could bring TS force winds to South Carolina northward. The good news is that without its core, you're looking at a moderate TS vs. the potential for a major hurricane.
Thanks wxman57. Your posts overall are some of the best. I'm still wondering about the GA coast because it is drifting SW rather than W and the GA coastal latitudes go as high as 32N whereas the storm is all the way down to 31.2N. I realize that the NGM and NAM are pretty bad with regard to TC's, but nevertheless they have been persistent. The 0Z NAM fwiw is 100 miles SSE of its 18Z run! Few or no other models have had the storm going down to 31.2 recently.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Derek Ortt
the upper enviornment is better and the dry air is moderating
however,it has to move
does remind me somewhat of Jeanne 48 hours before landfall when its core collapsed and it lost all of its convection when it moved over the cold area
earlier SFMR did support winds of 60-65KT, so this is likely still a very marginal hurricane
however,it has to move
does remind me somewhat of Jeanne 48 hours before landfall when its core collapsed and it lost all of its convection when it moved over the cold area
earlier SFMR did support winds of 60-65KT, so this is likely still a very marginal hurricane
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wxman57
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Take a look at a comparison of Ophelia now vs. 12 hours ago. No more core of convection. Hard to call this a hurriane any more. Winds aloft may not be a good indicator of surface winds with such a storm. The normal 90% conversion is not likely going to work:
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/opheliacompare.gif">
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/opheliacompare.gif">
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Brent
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HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z MON SEP 12 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.2W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 76.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z MON SEP 12 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.2W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 76.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
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Brent
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005
...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 290 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.1 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005
...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 290 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.1 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
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Brent
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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT OPHELIA
REMAINS AS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING VERY
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED UPWELLING. NO
WONDER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION RESEMBLES AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE...AND WHEN OPHELIA
BEGINS TO MOVE...IT COULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE WARMER OCEAN.
THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE ONLY
SHOWING A VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION.
IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER-MEAN
HIGH FORMING NORTH OF OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE...AS
INDICATED BY THE UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
CONSEQUENTLY...OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240
DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...PAINFULLY SLOWLY...TOWARD THE UNITED
STATES COAST WITHIN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED...BY THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWED ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LAST RUN
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEY ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS
WHICH SKIRTED THE COAST IN THE LAST RUN ARE NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS
BUT I DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT WESTWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET...IN
CASE THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. THE GFDL
STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK MORE TO THE LEFT. BY INSPECTING THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH NORTH OF OPHELIA...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT
MORE FOR THE PORTION BEFORE LANDFALL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 31.1N 76.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W 40 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT OPHELIA
REMAINS AS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING VERY
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED UPWELLING. NO
WONDER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION RESEMBLES AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE...AND WHEN OPHELIA
BEGINS TO MOVE...IT COULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE WARMER OCEAN.
THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE ONLY
SHOWING A VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION.
IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER-MEAN
HIGH FORMING NORTH OF OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE...AS
INDICATED BY THE UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
CONSEQUENTLY...OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240
DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...PAINFULLY SLOWLY...TOWARD THE UNITED
STATES COAST WITHIN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED...BY THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWED ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LAST RUN
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEY ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS
WHICH SKIRTED THE COAST IN THE LAST RUN ARE NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS
BUT I DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT WESTWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET...IN
CASE THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. THE GFDL
STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK MORE TO THE LEFT. BY INSPECTING THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH NORTH OF OPHELIA...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT
MORE FOR THE PORTION BEFORE LANDFALL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 31.1N 76.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 31.2N 77.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 32.2N 77.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 77.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 42.0N 68.0W 40 KT
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#neversummer
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JamesFromMaine2
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Brent
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
...OPHELIA MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 270 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
...OPHELIA MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 270 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.2 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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Coredesat
000
WTNT31 KNHC 120844
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...OUTER RAINBANDS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO NORTH OF EDISTO
BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
WTNT31 KNHC 120844
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
...OPHELIA TEMPORARILY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...OUTER RAINBANDS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO NORTH OF EDISTO
BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
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000
WTNT71 KNHC 120845
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.9N 77.5W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 6 8 4 2 20
32.5N 77.6W 53 X X X 53 CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 8 5 4 18
33.3N 77.5W 27 1 1 X 29 NORFOLK VA X 1 6 7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 X 2 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 8 10
JACKSONVILLE FL 1 2 1 3 7 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7
SAVANNAH GA 3 6 3 2 14 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4
CHARLESTON SC 11 5 2 2 20 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC 13 5 2 2 22 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC 10 7 3 2 22 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Weather, & TPC Information Topics:
Storm Information, Hurricane Awareness, Historical Information,
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, About Us, Contact Us
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
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Page last modified: Monday, 12-Sep-2005 04:47:30 EDT
WTNT71 KNHC 120845
SPFAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.9N 77.5W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC 6 8 4 2 20
32.5N 77.6W 53 X X X 53 CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 8 5 4 18
33.3N 77.5W 27 1 1 X 29 NORFOLK VA X 1 6 7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 X 2 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X 2 8 10
JACKSONVILLE FL 1 2 1 3 7 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7
SAVANNAH GA 3 6 3 2 14 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4
CHARLESTON SC 11 5 2 2 20 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC 13 5 2 2 22 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC 10 7 3 2 22 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE
C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Weather, & TPC Information Topics:
Storm Information, Hurricane Awareness, Historical Information,
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch, About Us, Contact Us
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Disclaimer Privacy Policy
Comments/Feedback
Page last modified: Monday, 12-Sep-2005 04:47:30 EDT
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