My unoffical forecast 6# On Ophelia

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical storm Ophelia
11pm est
9-11-2005
Forecast 6#

The latest Ir satellite show Ophelia's inner core has faded. In which the system appears to be alot like tropical storm Isidor of 2002. In which dry air appears to have been pushed into the system. By southwestly winds shear. Which appears to have increased at 5 to 10 knots 3 to 6 hours.

Recon has found 74 knots flight level over northwest quad. In which no longer supports hurricane. A hurricane is at least 80 knots at 850 millibars. So I'm decreasing the winds based on this to 70 mph. Also pressure is now 981 millibars.

The system has been moving southwest at 5 knots...Which shows that the ridge/high to the north is much stronger then earlier thought. In which the 18z Gfdl has shifted from a outterbanks to a 33.0 north landfall. In which case from 35.5/36 north to around 33.0 north. Which is a shift of 150 to 180 miles to the left. The 18z Gfd makes landfall around 34.5 which is still a shift to the left.

Case in point if the southwest movement keeps up. It could go farther left.

To point the 12z Cmc shows a strong ridge to the north. Then breaks it down making landfall around 35 north. Since that is not likely to happen so fast it will be discounted. Also Lbar take the system into Ga. In which looks more likely then the CMC.

So I'm going with a mix of Gfdl/Gfs/Bamm models tonight. In which is a huge shift to the left. A landfall is being forecast by me near 34.0 north or near the SC/NC boader in 60 to 66 hours. Or Cape fear/Surface city...

With the slow movement(Upwelling) it is not likely to regain its central core. In which should keep it fairly weak. But the outflow over the northern quad/large size of the over all cirulation. Should keep the system a strong tropical storm. This is a chance it might regain cat1 hurricane if it moves faster. In which would allow it to move over warmer water to regain a central core.

Forecaster Matthew

[Bgator]

Ok maybe there typos but, a hurricane is 987mb i think, also 74kt flight winds is 64kt surface winds which is 75MOH winds which doies support a cane!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

74 knots at flight level doe's not support hurricane. If it did Cindy,Arlene would both of been upgraded. It takes at least 80 knots to. Also Frances,Katrina where both depression with pressure of around this.

[wxwatcher91]

74 knots at flight level doe's not support hurricane. If it did Cindy,Arlene would both of been upgraded. It takes at least 80 knots to. Also Frances,Katrina where both depression with pressure of around this.

not that I'm taking one side or the other but also Franklin was nearly a hurricane with pressures of around 1000mb and so was Cindy