NWS employees give Senator Santorum the old 1-2!

[Scott_inVA]

Santorum is lying the lies that liars tell to further the interests of his corporate buddies.

Thought some graphics pertinent to the discussion may help.


This graphic shows EVERY TPC/NHC Katrina Forecast/Advisory track:



This graphic shows TPC/NHC tracks through Friday 8/26/05 11AM Forecast/Advisory

Clearly, TPC erred in thinking Katrina would track either West or WNW across Florida. The TC jogged to the SW making a second landfall on the Panhandle nearly impossible.

This graphic shows ALL TPC/NHC tracks from Friday 8/26/05 5PM Forecast/Advisory through initial LA landfall on Monday morning:

By Friday afternoon, TPC tracks were simply impecible. More that 2.5 days before landfall the TPC was consistently locked on a tight LA/MS zone.

This graphic is a close-up showing TPC/NHC Forecast/Advisory tracks for the final 48 hours before initial LA landfall:

Again, excellent analysis provided by the National Hurricane Center. And again, the projected land fall INVOF NOLA was made more than 2.5 days BEFORE Katrina came in.

Indeed, Sen. Santorum is either guilty of unfettered ingnorance or, willfully lying to anyone unaware of the facts. Our responsibility, ladies and gentlemen, is not to carp about it, but rather to make certain as many people as possible know the true motives behind Santorum's continued scurrilous accusations aganst NOAA.

Toward that end, I'll keep these graphics on the public side of the site...anyone is free to copy or link to them. I am working on a page devoted to official and modeling forecasts of Katrina in the hopes the public will not be fooled by lies...and will link that to our HurricaneCenter when online. It's really important we keep people's feet to the fire regarding the continued distortions of Katrina's expected track.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Jim Cantore]

In school we did a current events think about the levees last year

I said if a major hurricanes hits the area those levees will breach and flood the city

everyone said I was nuts

look who was unfourtunatly right I tell them

[Frank2]

While it's true that AccuWeather forecasted rapid deepening of Katrina, would the Senator prefer the tabloid-style forecasting of AccuWeather, over the professional consistency of the NHC and NWS, which by my experience has not changed since my earliest memories of an NHC forecast, some 45 years ago?

Even though the NHC did not forecast such rapid strengthening, they still warned that Katrina would deepening into a major hurricane, and stressed that evacuations should be started as soon as possible, based on it's forecast track. As anyone in meteorology knows (or should know), intensity forecasting of any type of weather event is still largely an unknown science - the Oklahoma City tornado of 1999 is a good example of this lack of knowledge. While a tornado outbreak was forecast that day, no one could predict the intensity of what developed only several hours later.

Concerning the reality of the New Orleans levee system - that has been a political football for decades, and, the many politicians on every level who sat back and did nothing are the ones responsible - not those who's job it is to forecast the weather.

Since the Senator serves the public trust, what he should hope for is an apology from AccuWeather, and in particular Joe Bastardi, concerning last week's erroneous AccuWeather forecast that showed Hurricane Ophelia following a similar track as Hurricane Katrina - shame on him for causing even more worry for the several million directly affected by that disaster.

Frank

[Andrew92]

I think that Santorum has worn the rose-colored glasses to long in regards to Joe Bastardi. Don't get me wrong; Joe is a very knowledgable forecaster and, for the most part, knows his stuff. However, Joe also doesn't actually MAKE forecasts out in advance, he just hints at numerous possibilities. And for Santorum to say that those discussions are all forecasts, when they're just possibilities, is absurd.

The NWS actually makes forecasts in advance. They know they might be wrong and they freely admit it. But the forecasters for the NWS are all very good, and more often than not, their forecasts verify much better than Joe Bastardi's "forecasts." And Santorum has major beef with these actual forecasts.

I realize that Santorum and Bastardi are from the same state, but Santorum really needs to take the rose-colored glasses off. Maybe then, he'll realize that Joe Bastardi is flawed. And until he does, assuming that ever happens (which I doubt), I would be voting for his opponent next year if I lived in Pennsylvania.

-Andrew92

[Frank2]

Yes, they are not only from the same State but the same town (State College) - it seems that some there have been sitting too long in their collegiate judgement seats, and are in need of an attitude adjustment.

Frank

[jasons2k]

Since the Senator serves the public trust, what he should hope for is an apology from AccuWeather, and in particular Joe Bastardi, concerning last week's erroneous AccuWeather forecast that showed Hurricane Ophelia following a similar track as Hurricane Katrina - shame on him for causing even more worry for the several million directly affected by that disaster.

Frank

That's a bit over the top. Since when did an organization, any organization for that matter, start issuing "apologies" for a blown forecast. Especially one that had model support; it wasn't some "phantom" forecast.

So, if the tables had been turned and AccuWx got it right and the NHC got it wrong, should the NHC then issue an apology?

I don't like the Santorum Bill one bit, but I'm quite confident it will never pass.

What I don't get is all the blame being placed in JB. Again, HE is not AccuWx or its owner. He just issues forecasts. And for whatever reason, it seems like he gets unfairly criticized for issuing a forecast that's not the same as the NHC.

Every TV station in America issues it's own forecast several times a day, 365 days a year. At big stations with pro mets, they rarely, if ever, match the NWS forecast for that city. How is that any different? Why are tropical forecasts 'special'??? It's all meteorology.

[jasons2k]

I think that Santorum has worn the rose-colored glasses to long in regards to Joe Bastardi. Don't get me wrong; Joe is a very knowledgable forecaster and, for the most part, knows his stuff. However, Joe also doesn't actually MAKE forecasts out in advance, he just hints at numerous possibilities. And for Santorum to say that those discussions are all forecasts, when they're just possibilities, is absurd.

The NWS actually makes forecasts in advance. They know they might be wrong and they freely admit it. But the forecasters for the NWS are all very good, and more often than not, their forecasts verify much better than Joe Bastardi's "forecasts." And Santorum has major beef with these actual forecasts.

I realize that Santorum and Bastardi are from the same state, but Santorum really needs to take the rose-colored glasses off. Maybe then, he'll realize that Joe Bastardi is flawed. And until he does, assuming that ever happens (which I doubt), I would be voting for his opponent next year if I lived in Pennsylvania.

-Andrew92

Just b/c JB has a discussion column doesn't mean he doesn't issue forecasts. That's a mistaken assumption (just like people equating AccuWx with JB).

For one, he has been putting points in his most recent columns, and 2, he has been issuing specific forecasts to paying clients for years.

[x-y-no]

I don't like the Santorum Bill one bit, but I'm quite confident it will never pass.

Not on its own, no. But watch for it to get tacked on as an amendment to some other bill.

[Andrew92]

I think that Santorum has worn the rose-colored glasses to long in regards to Joe Bastardi. Don't get me wrong; Joe is a very knowledgable forecaster and, for the most part, knows his stuff. However, Joe also doesn't actually MAKE forecasts out in advance, he just hints at numerous possibilities. And for Santorum to say that those discussions are all forecasts, when they're just possibilities, is absurd.

The NWS actually makes forecasts in advance. They know they might be wrong and they freely admit it. But the forecasters for the NWS are all very good, and more often than not, their forecasts verify much better than Joe Bastardi's "forecasts." And Santorum has major beef with these actual forecasts.

I realize that Santorum and Bastardi are from the same state, but Santorum really needs to take the rose-colored glasses off. Maybe then, he'll realize that Joe Bastardi is flawed. And until he does, assuming that ever happens (which I doubt), I would be voting for his opponent next year if I lived in Pennsylvania.

-Andrew92

Just b/c JB has a discussion column doesn't mean he doesn't issue forecasts. That's a mistaken assumption (just like people equating AccuWx with JB).

For one, he has been putting points in his most recent columns, and 2, he has been issuing specific forecasts to paying clients for years.

OK, I guess I needed to do better research on the JB issue. But I still stand by my opinion that Santorum needs to realize that JB, while knowledgable, is far from perfect. And the NWS is the most reliable source for weather, at least in my opinion.

I am quite optimistic, however, that the bill will not pass.

-Andrew92

[Frank2]

Re: jschlitz's post

That's a bit over the top. Since when did an organization, any organization for that matter, start issuing "apologies" for a blown forecast. Especially one that had model support; it wasn't some "phantom" forecast.

So, if the tables had been turned and AccuWx got it right and the NHC got it wrong, should the NHC then issue an apology?

You missed my point - its one thing to make a mistake and have a blown forecast, but, it's another to make weather forecasting a part of a tabloid journalist's agenda, and in the process, for want of high ratings and high profits, frighten millions into believing something that at that time was only remotely possible, at best.

Frank

[jburns]

I don't like the Santorum Bill one bit, but I'm quite confident it will never pass.

Not on its own, no. But watch for it to get tacked on as an amendment to some other bill.

So true. Attach it to a capital gains tax cut and every Republican member of congress would vote for it. Attach it to an increase in the minimum wage and every Democrat would vote for it. Pick your poisen.

[jasons2k]

I don't like the Santorum Bill one bit, but I'm quite confident it will never pass.

Not on its own, no. But watch for it to get tacked on as an amendment to some other bill.

So true. Attach it to a capital gains tax cut and every Republican member of congress would vote for it. Attach it to an increase in the minimum wage and every Democrat would vote for it. Pick your poisen.

That is true, I'll definitely be watching. Thanks for the clarifications.

[Aslkahuna]

I will have to ask my son (who's the VP of the SE AZ AMS Chapter) if the AMS still has it's Code of Ethics for Meteorologists. If so. it would appear that certain people at Inaccuweather have crossed over the line and should be expelled from the AMS and barred from ever being members again.

Steve

[jasons2k]

I will have to ask my son (who's the VP of the SE AZ AMS Chapter) if the AMS still has it's Code of Ethics for Meteorologists. If so. it would appear that certain people at Inaccuweather have crossed over the line and should be expelled from the AMS and barred from ever being members again.

Steve

Well here is a link to it: http://www.iit.edu/departments/csep/cod ... ciety.html

I don't seen anything on here they have violated.