Tropical Storm Ophelia

shaggy · #1301 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:45 pm

Stupid storm....I'm beginning to think Ophelia is drunk!

now thats the best discription of ophelia i have heard yet!!!! :lol:

cinlfla · #1302 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:45 pm

OK... who flew in there and seeded her with the booze??

Website · #1303 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Website · #1304 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:48 pm

#1305 Postby **stormynorfolk** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:10 pm

WINDS: GALE FORCE (34 TO 49 KNOTS) SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA BEGINNING 141800Z AND PERSISTING UNTIL 160000Z. THE FOLLOWING ARE MAXIMUM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THESE SELECT LOCATIONS:

A. NAVAL STATION NORFOLK (PIERS): NE 38 TO 45 GUSTS 50 KTS (151400Z)
B. NEWPORT NEWS SHIPYARD: NE 34 TO 42 GUSTS 48 KTS (151600Z)
C. NAVAL STATION LITTLE CREEK: NE 40 TO 47 GUSTS 53 KTS (151300Z)
D. NORFOLK NAVAL SHIPYARD: NE 30 TO 37 GUSTS 42 KTS (151200Z)
E. DAM NECK: NE 45 TO 50 GUSTS 55 KTS (151700Z)

Looks like it might be kind of ugly in VA as well. I live about a 1/2 mile from NS Little Creek. Should be fun :eek:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/viewtext.pl?File=/center/Local_Warnings/wwxx.txt

#1306 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:12 pm

im still sorta suprised they didn't at least shift the track a little west... :roll:

Website · #1307 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:12 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOSTLY
OBLITERATED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN BANDS 50-60 N
MI OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY
EXTENSIVE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE AT
MIXING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
LEVEL AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 60 KT. OPHELIA IS CROSSING THE GULF STREAM SO THERE IS STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...UNLESS AND UNTIL THE
INNER CORE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
OPHELIA WILL RE-ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

A SLOW AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 310/3...HAS BEEN
OBSERVED SINCE LATE MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL
DEFINED AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RECURVE OPHELIA AND TAKE IT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER 3 DAYS...WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST NOGAPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OPHELIA WILL
MEANDER OVER/NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH
CARRYING OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF
DIVERSE GUIDANCE BUT DOES INDICATE RECURVATURE...AND A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.

STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS SHOWN IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ARE BASED ON A
CATEGORY 1 LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 31.8N 77.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 32.3N 77.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 32.8N 78.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 78.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.2N 77.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 35.5N 76.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 41.0N 67.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

#1308 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:16 pm

THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH
CARRYING OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD

thats not suprising!!!!!!

shaggy · #1309 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:45 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

some decent storms firing on the east side of the circ.We will have to see if this starts choking out some of that dry air and it does appear to be doing that somewhat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

ThunderMate · #1310 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:45 pm

hey stromynorfolk im here on chesapeake and Va Beach line..yes its looking we might have a bonnie type system hitting us in about 23 days what do you think>? Don Slater said 60 mph winds are to be expected and could be higher depending on the track.....personally at this point im thinking Accuweather track is more likely than NHC track just because i don't see it turning that sharply...any thoughts?

Jim Hughes · #1311 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:46 pm

deltadog03 wrote:im still sorta suprised they didn't at least shift the track a little west...

Have to wonder about -removed- here. I would like to hear from the experts regarding how long a system has to be moving in a certain direction to establish it. Only the 12 hour track makes sense from what they are saying.

Since the 5pm Discussion yesterday

.3 N 1.4 W

During the past 12 hours

.5 N .7W

6 hrs.. .2 N .6 W

3 hrs. 0 N .1 W

Are they relying on the models being right? I hope not with their Ophelia track record. Maybe I am wrong about something here.

Jim

hurricanefreak1988 · #1312 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 4:48 pm

superfly wrote:
hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Wow. I think I'll add Most Annoying Storm of the Year to my list of awards at the end of the season just for Ophelia. She has driven us all nuts!

That'd probably be Irene actually.

No way. Irene was the cinderella story of the year. I liked her.

#1313 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:05 pm

jim at first i thought you were implying that i was -removed-...but, looking at your post i see that your implying that the nhc might be -removed-....well, i agree...they can wishcast too....but, i really think at least on caution they need to extend some watches further south...imo...great post...

Jim Hughes · #1314 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:13 pm

If you look at this RGB loop you can see more of a western track since 1545z if you use the loading bar as a guideline while the loop is loading.

If anything it takes a slight jog to the south in the last image at 2115z. I hope that this is just a wobble and their forecast track proves correct in the long run. Or there are going to be some surprised people by tomorrow morning.

The 36 hour outlook in the 5am discussion on the 11th had it at 32N 76.5W.....So it is curently south and west of that forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

Jim

hicksta · #1315 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:13 pm

Stair step

shaggy · #1316 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:17 pm

not like a storm this size will be much if it does surprise someone.Just cant get its act together! not worried about it one bit here now

Jim Hughes · #1317 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:18 pm

deltadog03 wrote:jim at first i thought you were implying that i was -removed-...but, looking at your post i see that your implying that the nhc might be -removed-....well, i agree...they can wishcast too....but, i really think at least on caution they need to extend some watches further south...imo...great post...

No I was basically referring to the models the way the have been acting. I have great respect for th NHC' tracking forecasting capability ...intensity may be a different story.

I have some family down in Charleston SC so maybe that is making me worry more about a possible western track.

Jim

txwatcher91 · #1318 Postby **txwatcher91** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:19 pm

Jim, do you see any solar events that could help Ophelia strengthen soon?

Jim Hughes · #1319 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:24 pm

hicksta wrote:Stair step

I agree but the stair stepping seems to west ..southwest ...west ...at least recently...which may mean nothing 12 hours from now. But at what point do we say they they are at it again? Models might be wrong.

Jim

Jim Hughes · #1320 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 5:28 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Jim, do you see any solar events that could help Ophelia strengthen soon?

I am going to post an outlook by 8-9pm hopefully ....if family lets me...getting ready to eat some dinner.

Jim

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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