Where Is The Carolina Contingency?

[ncbird]

Figured I would post this here for us...

000
WTUS82 KMHX 122120
HLSMHX
AMZ158-NCZ080-093-094-095-098-103-104-130400-

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
520 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CAPE
LOOKOUT SOUTH...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
CARTERET...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE...PAMLICO...AND ONSLOW
COUNTIES...AND OCRACOKE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 260 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL NON-RESIDENTS ON OCRACOKE.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TODAY TO
MINIMIZE PROPERTY LOSSES AND PERSONAL RISK.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE COAST
WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURGES OF 4 TO 6
FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEUSE
RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER IN
BEAUFORT COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS OFFSHORE WERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WERE 8 TO 11 FEET. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOMORROW AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...FLOODING IMPACTS...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST AS OPHELIA MOVES A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES DUE TO
A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM OPHELIA.

...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
SURF WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES.
BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE
BEACH EROSION.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

$$

DB

[webke]

I have been here reading and posting, It looks like it may get interesting around in a few hours.

[Billy Anderson]

the wind today is not as strong as yesterday--I heard on the radio they are opening shelters at 5 p.m. in Onslow County(that is Jacksonville, Swansboro and North Topsail area)--no word on down east Carteret County--There seems to a lot of wait and see at the beach today--if it does hit the gulf stream and goes to a cat 2--it could be a problem

I was in New Bern & Holly Ridge today and the wind seems to be gustier than last few days. Also, it seems cooler than I recall during previous storms. You know, not at all humid. I encountered a showerette around Maysville. Just enough to move the dust off my windshield. On my way past Dixon, I noticed the school busses in the parking lot. Don't know if they're preparing to go get the people who can't make it to the shelter tonight or just parking after their run. The local radio station says there is a voluntary evacuation of tourists, mobile homers, and islanders...shelters opened at 5 p.m. On the way home, noticed New River has already flooded the dock at the public boat landing already, despite the lack of rain in the watershed...suspect this is an early indication of tidal surge...saw similar effect a day or two before Isabel '03. Local TV was showing the usual errosion shots at North Topsail Beach. They're reporting that the north end still has'nt recovered from the last Nor'Easter. Onwassa, the local water/sewer authority is shutting down the pipes to the north end tonight. This is the same system that was destroyed by Dennis '99. Surprised that there has'nt been any reports of water spouts or tornadoes yet...anyway, best regards, to fellow Tar Heelers on this board...BA

[wolfray]

Local Raleigh met indicated that TS force winds could be as long as 42 hours inland in Sampson County, NC...Fayetteville area 36 hours...I think he was leaning more to a Wilmington land fall without saying it.....Still much uncertainty with this storm...Middle of the cone says Morehead City/Atlantic Beach with a very slow mover...Guess time will tell.....

[Billy Anderson]

Onlsow County F.Y.I.:

http://www.wteb.org/soundpostview.asp?ID=102

The link lists key shelter locations and details including shelter for pets co-located with the Jacksonville Commons MS shelter.

Also, the EOC is operating a Citizen Information Line at 910.938.2059.

Regards, BA

[monsoon]

I just got back to Chicagoland after checking on my mother in Ocean Isle Beach. She's 85 and has the emergency supplies/evac kit down cold after 25 years on the southern NC coast.

[Tommedic]

I've been dropping in every now and then, but been busy making sure we are ready. Also, preparing for trip to MS later this month. I can't get feeling this won't turn quite as early as they expect. Either way, we are in for BAD weather for a few days.

[Tommedic]

Started out earlier with just a few sprinkles off and on, more off. Last hour or so have been getting a little heavier, light rain that is more on than off. Just an update here in Pender County, NC

[SC Coaster]

Rainbands beginning here along the south end of the Grand Strand. Lightning & Thunder. I just came in from the Wal-Mart area on Hwy. 544. A few Motorhomes and a couple of campers were heading out and a few were lined up to leave one of the campgrounds. For those who are not familiar with the area there are 3 large campgrounds, anywhere from 1 to 2 miles from Wal-Mart, along the east side of Hwy. 17 bordering on the ocean. There are probably at least 3,500 camper sites total, if not more, in those campgrounds. I expected to see more campers leaving but perhaps many left during the daylight hours hoping to reach some inland campgrounds and find a site to park until the threat of "O" is over - (whenever that will be ). The traffic signals were beginning to 'dance' pretty good on the overhead wires - some more than others - depending on the wind gusts. As you probably have already read the governor of SC issued a voluntary evacuation this afternoon for the east side of Hwy. 17, especially on the south end. That area is prone to flood pretty bad and in the Garden City Beach area the water can cover the roadways pretty quickly. Public bus line and some limo services are offering transportation, at no charge, to folks east of 17 to shelters. There are a lot of tourists here who use the airlines to come in and have no personal transportation. I'm always so pleased to see these services offered to those who have no personal transportation. Will post updates whenever there is any significant changes.

[Robert]

Carteret County is expecting gale force or higher winds for more than 24 hours and has issued a voluntary evacuation for residents and a mandatory evac for non-residents. Beaufort Middle School and Newport Middle School will be opened as Red Cross Shelters. Atlantic School will be open as a community shelter.

Also, schools are closed for tomorrow (Tues)

Orion,

Where are you hearing this? I just got back from a local fire department meeting, and heard that schools were canceled so that they could be used for shelters if needed (for folks from Down East, flooding). Not saying that voluntary evacuations are not happening, but thought I would have heard something.

Robert

[UpTheCreek]

Well, our kids in Craven Co. get half day tomorrow and I am assuming they will be cancelled altogether.

Here's a list for y'all:

Closings and Delays:

Carteret County Schools - closed Tuesday.

Carteret Community College- no classes Tuesday.

Coastal Carolina Community College in Jacksonville - closed for day classes Tuesday.

Craven County Schools - start regular time Tuesday, close early at 11:30 a.m.

Duplin County Schools- closed Tuesday.

Jones County Schools- dismissing 11:30 am Tuesday.

Onslow County Courthouse - closed Tuesday and Wednesday.

Onslow County Schools - closed Tuesday for staff and students.

Onslow County United Transit System-closed Tuesday.

Pamlico County Schools- dismissing at 12:30pm Tuesday. Afterschool childcare programs at Pamlico Primary will remain open.

[brunota2003]

Here's a list for y'all:

Closings and Delays:

Craven County Schools - start regular time Tuesday, close early at 11:30 a.m.

YAY!!! I get a half day, at least we dont have to make that one up...!!!

[kc4nky]

I'm here in Columbia, waiting on the big 'O'. I'm sorry but I think a lot of people are looking for the big 'O' (sorry, I just couldn't help myself) I personaly think this one might catch the people by surprise. I work for the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and we are on standby mode, in case the governor orders a mandatory evacuation (we'll be needed for traffic control). Otherwise, we're just sitting here waiting.

[UpTheCreek]

Looking at Derrick Ortt's graphic, this doesn't do well for us since it would put us on the east side of this thing.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl162005graphics.html

[Okibeach]

Mandatory evacuation issued for Oak Island NC begining at 6a.m. Tues. I couldn't believe this when I heard it as I don't believe this has ever happened for a T.S. / Cat 1. I confirmed it with the O.I. P.D. Maybe an over-reaction to what happened in N.O.???

[NCHurricane]

Mandatory evacuation issued for Oak Island NC begining at 6a.m. Tues. I couldn't believe this when I heard it as I don't believe this has ever happened for a T.S. / Cat 1. I confirmed it with the O.I. P.D. Maybe an over-reaction to what happened in N.O.???

Maybe not an over-reaction as much as it is being proactive instead of reactive.

You're not going to stay are you?

[ncbird]

Looking at Derrick Ortt's graphic, this doesn't do well for us since it would put us on the east side of this thing.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl162005graphics.html

I've been afraid of it moving a little more west and putting us on the other side....

[ncbird]

Mandatory evacuation issued for Oak Island NC begining at 6a.m. Tues. I couldn't believe this when I heard it as I don't believe this has ever happened for a T.S. / Cat 1. I confirmed it with the O.I. P.D. Maybe an over-reaction to what happened in N.O.???

Perhaps they are worried about it moving so slow. I have been hearing alot of comments from our local mets as to us being in T.S. force winds for over 24 hours.

[millibar]

Been reading and watching. Restocked storm supplies (we'd eaten some during the summer ), cleared the yard, gassed up the car, etc. Now its wait and see here in ILM. Schools are closed tomorrow, etc.
Nost people here are not complacent. They're watching to se what Miss "O" will do, and at what strength. But to be honest, after our turn in the barrell with Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Floyd (all made landfall HERE) whats a tropical storm amongst friends??

If Ophelia picks back up, we're watching and ready!!!

Chuck

[Okibeach]

Mandatory evacuation issued for Oak Island NC begining at 6a.m. Tues. I couldn't believe this when I heard it as I don't believe this has ever happened for a T.S. / Cat 1. I confirmed it with the O.I. P.D. Maybe an over-reaction to what happened in N.O.???

Maybe not an over-reaction as much as it is being proactive instead of reactive.

You're not going to stay are you?

It may be somewhat proactive, but certainly not the norm. Although I've taken all the precautions I felt were necessary, I hadn't even considered evacuating unless this re-generated into a monster. I do not understand the reasoning behind it as the tourist season is over and right now this storm looks like it will not be as bad as Charley when it arrived last year. I can only think that maybe if they are concerned that one of the models that show O lingering several days comes to fruition. That may cause some extensive flooding and if the wind stayed above 40mph, the only bridge on and off would be shut down for an extended period of time.