Why Has The East Coast Of Florida Been Spared This Year?

[tropicstorm]

It seems that we've had a strong Bermuda High this year, but fluctuating back and forth a bit. Why two storm hits last year with Jeanne and Francis, but no storms this year on the east coast of the peninsula? I thought that we might get a '99 Floyd type hurricane - hard and fast at the Florida east coast. But, one year is certainly not like another, is it? The CV season has been pretty much dead this year and the home growns have ruled so far. Anybody think that the Florida east coast still may get the hit in late September? October tends to set up more opportunity for Florida west coast hits. What is the consensus here?

[Andrew92]

Well, the east coast of Florida was hit by Katrina while she was a C1. I wouldn't fully say that that part of Florida has been spared. At the same time, I take no hurricane, even a 75-mph C1, lightly.

But I know what you really mean. You mean no major hurricanes. It is possible that the east coast of Florida could get hit again, but the odds are against it. Jeanne last year hit later than this day, and even developed later than this day, and still hit the east cast of Florida. King in 1950 also hit Miami head-on in the month of October.

However, the odds favor that the east coast of Florida will probably be safe from a major strike this year. Even so, I would not be letting my guard down just yet. Some homegrown storm could develop in the Bahamas, rapidly deepen into a C3 or stronger, and strike eastern Florida.

-Andrew92

[Bgator]

Ummmm....try Katrina hit South Florida, may not have been a 3 but it did cause many power outages and A LOT of down trees..I live in Miami and dont foirget Katrina!

[tropicstorm]

Thanks for reminding me of Katrina - after what happened to New Orleans and the Mississippi coast, I guess that I forgot Katrina was anywhere except ground zero.

[fci]

Outside of 2004; East coast of Florida USUALLY escapes big storms.
Look over the past 40 years.
True Hurricanes:
Cleo, Betsy, David, Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina.
I might have missed a strong TS or minimal hurricane (MItch, perhaps) which came from the SW.
Not really unusual for East Coast of FL to escape.
"Typical" Bermuda high turns them NW, N or NE away after approaching the Bahamas.
Not to say we are not vulnerable; yet we don't get too many...

[Deb321]

Outside of 2004; East coast of Florida USUALLY escapes big storms.
Look over the past 40 years.
True Hurricanes:
Cleo, Betsy, David, Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina.
I might have missed a strong TS or minimal hurricane (MItch, perhaps) which came from the SW.
Not really unusual for East Coast of FL to escape.
"Typical" Bermuda high turns them NW, N or NE away after approaching the Bahamas.
Not to say we are not vulnerable; yet we don't get too many...

I for one feel like we got our share last year. I was hit directly from both Frances and Jeanne, only 3 weeks apart. Just got my house repaired and holding my breath until the season is over.
I think up until last year they had been lucky here but just like anywhere else, eventually your luck runs out. I for one will never get complacent.

[fci]

Oh, we got MORE than our share last year.
Especially y'all up the coast from me!!

No, after Katrina and last year's hits; I am no longer complacent.
You could count me as one who always thought they would miss... until one year ago.
And WE were very lucky in Central Palm Beach County compared to you guys.

I fear what a Cat 4 or Cat 5 would do to us and after these past 2 years; I no longer think we are immune....

[corpusbreeze]

Question is why has Texas been spared these last two years?

[f5]

Question is why has Texas been spared these last two years?

God Bless Texas

[jabber]

Year is not over yet.

[Patrick99]

It seems that we've had a strong Bermuda High this year, but fluctuating back and forth a bit. Why two storm hits last year with Jeanne and Francis, but no storms this year on the east coast of the peninsula? I thought that we might get a '99 Floyd type hurricane - hard and fast at the Florida east coast. But, one year is certainly not like another, is it? The CV season has been pretty much dead this year and the home growns have ruled so far. Anybody think that the Florida east coast still may get the hit in late September? October tends to set up more opportunity for Florida west coast hits. What is the consensus here?

We really weren't spared.....Katrina was in a definite intensifying mode when she hit. In my strong opinion, if she'd had just a little more Gulfstream to work with, we'd have been looking at a Cat. 3 into Miami.

I wouldn't rule out October. Just one big sprawling storm coming up and running up the Keys, and we get the dirty side.

But you are right....no hurricane season is exactly like another.

[Patrick99]

Outside of 2004; East coast of Florida USUALLY escapes big storms.
Look over the past 40 years.
True Hurricanes:
Cleo, Betsy, David, Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina.
I might have missed a strong TS or minimal hurricane (MItch, perhaps) which came from the SW.
Not really unusual for East Coast of FL to escape.
"Typical" Bermuda high turns them NW, N or NE away after approaching the Bahamas.
Not to say we are not vulnerable; yet we don't get too many...

Yet, look at the 1920s-1950. We didn't usually escape storms those years. They weren't pansies, either - seemed like most of them were legit Cat. 3s or very strong 4s.

From Vero to Key West - we're going to get our share of major hurricanes, no doubt about it.