New Orleans Escapes The Big One Again - Thank God

[MKT2005]

The track going further east than expected and the rapid decay before landfall really help spare the city.

[superfly]

Yes it was set up as a doomsday scenario, by the New Orleans NWS and by FEMA. I have a copy of the NWS report. Just because you and a couple other people made a lucky guess there is no reason to be so smug about it. As someone else said, nobody was flaming you for what you were saying, it was how you were saying it, implying that the rest of us were idiots for taking the authorities at their word and worrying that what we feared might come to pass. I myself was worried about the levees, which very easily could have broken through and the city flooded even with the storm we had because they were only engineered to withstand a Cat. 3 storm, and that was even "iffy." I was also worried about potential disasters with the many refineries and chemical plants in the area. We as a nation were lucky. New Orleans was lucky. So was your guess.

So fine, pat yourself on the bac and stop with the childish "I was right, you were not, bow down before me" garbage because there are bigger things to focus on right now, like the hundreds if not thousands of people who might have been swept away in the lower part of Louisiana and in Mississippi, and what a million people are going to do who won't be able to return to their homes or be comfortable for a very long time.

I LIVE in New Orleans so don't talk to me like I don't care that NOLA got hit hard. NWS was forecasting disastrous damage and there indeed was disastrous damage. However, it is NOT the doomsday scenario for the city and NWS NEVER said it was the doomsday scenario. Doomsday means ABSOLUTE worst scenario and this was NOT set up to be that. What NWS was forecasting was pretty much what the forecast would have been for ANY AREA under the gun of a 175 MPH hurricane, not just New Orleans. I have lived in New Orleans almost my whole life and I know what the doomsday scenario is and this was NOT it. Do some research if you don't believe me. I am in no way downplaying any of this, my house is likely flooded and maybe destroyed. I'm simply correcting what I see as a common misconception of the doomsday scenario.

[wlfpack81]

most likely corpses.....with most burials above ground any flooding event leads to this in the easy.

Could be corpses but honestly IMO I doubt it. There are reports of people in e-ern NO who were trapped in houses due to flood waters. So I wouldn't be surprised if we heard about a deaths from those parts (9th Ward etc.). I wouldn't be surprised at 50-150 deaths b/t SE LA, MS and w-ern AL mostly due to the flooding.

[Derek Ortt]

this was far wrose than andrew in Miami as it appears as if cat 3 conditions did affect new orleans. The cat 3 winds only extended to RSMAS on Virginia Key during Andrew, about 1/2 mile south of the center of Miami

[djtil]

Could be corpses but honestly IMO I doubt it. There are reports of people in e-ern NO who were trapped in houses due to flood waters. So I wouldn't be surprised if we heard about a deaths from those parts (9th Ward etc.). I wouldn't be surprised at 50-150 deaths b/t SE LA, MS and w-ern AL mostly due to the flooding.

will be interesting to see how things shake out.....ill stick with the hope of it being lower than that because i think the flooding event in new orleans was a "slow" rise event giving people time to get to roofs/etc....sure hope so anyway.

[jax]

bump...

this is a very interesting read... 2 weeks later.
dodged a bullet... more like hit by an atom bomb!

we just got internet running! we are doing much better
here... 90 miles east of New Orleans

[f5]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

[photoguy]

Welcome back, jax. I am very glad you are safe.

[ConvergenceZone]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

Why someone would bring this up, I have no clue. This topic was made the morning after it hit when even the media, YES, THE MEDIA said that they had escaped the big one. Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already.

[MS39047]

"Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already"

That's a strange statement. Isn't THAT EXACTLY what everone feared would happen in NOLA? The levees not holding regardless of the "wind damage." I have to agree with one of the above posters. Two weeks later, "after the fact" this has been the most interesting post I've read here in a long time.

[skysummit]

I would definatly not say we dodged the bullet. There's plenty of wind damage all over New Orleans and LOTs of flooding. NOLA's worst case scenario put 15-20 feet of water in NOLA. There was that in MANY locations

Slidell, La. NWS office has recorded sustained winds of 176mph with gusts to 192 mph....this was reported on the news a couple days ago and Katrina will most likely be made a Cat 5 once the season is over. I drove the entire Miss. Gulf Coast on Friday and I have never seen anything like this. There is not one standing home on the entire gulf coast! There's a McDonalds in the Gulf Port area that only shows its table and chairs....that's IT!

1.2 million people are scattered around the country...most with homes they'll never be able to live in again. An entire parish (St. Benard) will have to be LEVELED. Yea, it could've been worse in New Orleans if Katrina would have went 30-40 miles further west, however, NOLA surely did not get "spared".

[Derek Ortt]

the 176 m.p.h. likely is not correct. Wind tunnel tests will have to be performed

I have seen a preliminary best track and I can tell you that from what I saw, Katrina is no where close to cat 5 when it came into Slidell and Mississipi

[TPACane04]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

Why someone would bring this up, I have no clue. This topic was made the morning after it hit when even the media, YES, THE MEDIA said that they had escaped the big one. Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already.

I say mate, you feeling a bit sheepish now after creating this thread?

It was only the <b>worst-titled thread of all time </b>on this board....when I read the first 10 posts again today, it was amazing to see how no one had a real clue about what was happening and about to happen when the levees failed.

[skysummit]

the 176 m.p.h. likely is not correct. Wind tunnel tests will have to be performed

I have seen a preliminary best track and I can tell you that from what I saw, Katrina is no where close to cat 5 when it came into Slidell and Mississipi

If this is the case, they shouldn't release that wind information to the public. They also should not say that Katrina will likely be upgraded to a Cat 5 after the season is over. Also, everything I have seen in the past 2 weeks definately supports Cat 5 damage, and I'm not talking about the storm surge damage along the Miss. Gulf Coast. I'm talking about the wind damage. Well inland there's homes completely destroyed...brick homes with nothing left but slabs. The pictures we're seeing on the news does nothing for justice. Believe me, they're not showing the worst of it. It did look to me when she was making landfall that she did weaken a bit, but from what I'm seeing now, I'm starting to think they were a little conservative on her strength before that "weakening" took place.

[fci]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

Why someone would bring this up, I have no clue. This topic was made the morning after it hit when even the media, YES, THE MEDIA said that they had escaped the big one. Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already.

How can you still defend your earlier statements?
Unbelieveable.

[skysummit]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

Why someone would bring this up, I have no clue. This topic was made the morning after it hit when even the media, YES, THE MEDIA said that they had escaped the big one. Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already.

How can you still defend your earlier statements?
Unbelieveable.

No JOKE! If he would know anything at all, he would know the levees breaking is part of the worst case. That's the ONE thing that was feared the most! Geez.

[jasons2k]

Not to downplay the severity of the catastrophe, but the "worst case" was water topping OVER the levee, then multiple breaches, with a fast surge of water into the city; not a 2-day gradual rise.

Saying this was the worst possible outcome is the equivalent of saying NOLA will never take a direct hit from a Cat 5.

[Frank2]

I think most here are being very unfair to the person who first posted this topic - it sounds like he was just happy that at first it seemed that Katrina had weakened and moved northeast of the city just prior to landfall - I'll guess and say that he was not the only one!

At that time he did not know what was to happen concerning the flooding that followed, or the severe damage that took place to the east of New Orleans. What makes me angry about some who post here (especially those who live in states outside the southeast, and can make critical comments from their high and dry judgment seats) is their arrogant attitude towards those whose only desire is to hope for the best.

My suggestion to the person who began this thread is that he contact admin and have the thread deleted at this time, since it now seems to only create more sarcastic comments that anything, though again I can understand why he posted this comment in the first place.

Frank

[vbhoutex]

There has no doubt been a HORRIFIC tragedy in NO and along the MS coast and to many a doomsday type of scenario. However, as has been stated this was not the "doomsday" scenario envisioned by the NWS etc. in their scenarios. That was the city being hit by 150 mph or better winds and a surge in the the 20-25 range all coming in at the same time(as stated-rushing in and filling the city in a short period of time as opposed to a slower rise which occurred). If that had happened, there wouldn't even be anything left to rebuild and the 10's of thousands who did survive this time to make it to the Superdome or wherever they got to would not have even had a chance. We would definitely be seeing 10's of thousands of dead instead of hoping that the toll doesn't reach that high once they are able to get into the hardest hit areas. No one is downplaying anything here, just stating what is in the previous "doomsday scenario" reports.

[Derek Ortt]

a point about wind damage

a house that does not have hurricane straps is usually destroyed in category 2 winds. This is an F-1 tornado. Category 3 winds are F2 intensity, which can definately destroy structures since its prolonged voer a long period of time

In Florida, we dont see this type of damage since hurricane straps are mandatory