New Orleans Escapes The Big One Again - Thank God

[alicia-w]

well we will have to wait and see....i could be wrong, hope not though....andrew killed 26 directly.....i just dont see this being as unexpected as andrew, nor as bad.

i also question whether 25 billion of andrews cost will really be topped.....

Interestingly enough, the death toll in Louisiana is in the hundreds as of today. and they arent finished yet.

[quandary]

Not to downplay the severity of the catastrophe, but the "worst case" was water topping OVER the levee, then multiple breaches, with a fast surge of water into the city; not a 2-day gradual rise.

Saying this was the worst possible outcome is the equivalent of saying NOLA will never take a direct hit from a Cat 5.

While it is wrong to say that NOLA will never take a direct hit from a Cat 5, you probably forgot that it is unlikely that NOLA will take this hit. The more likely than not DOOMSDAY scenarios that people say "are only a matter of when, not if" refer to scenarios like a Cat. 3 hitting NO or a weakening Cat 2 in NYC or a Cat. 3-4 hitting Tampa Bay, etc. The rest of it is just speculation and theory. Katrina's wrath exceeded most of these highly likely doomsday scenarios.

[jasons2k]

Not to downplay the severity of the catastrophe, but the "worst case" was water topping OVER the levee, then multiple breaches, with a fast surge of water into the city; not a 2-day gradual rise.

Saying this was the worst possible outcome is the equivalent of saying NOLA will never take a direct hit from a Cat 5.

While it is wrong to say that NOLA will never take a direct hit from a Cat 5, you probably forgot that it is unlikely that NOLA will take this hit. The more likely than not DOOMSDAY scenarios that people say "are only a matter of when, not if" refer to scenarios like a Cat. 3 hitting NO or a weakening Cat 2 in NYC or a Cat. 3-4 hitting Tampa Bay, etc. The rest of it is just speculation and theory. Katrina's wrath exceeded most of these highly likely doomsday scenarios.

Either way, it is a question of WHEN. It could be next week; it could be in 2000 years. It's a gamble regardless of the schematics.

And the statement that NOLA will unlikely take this hit is factually incorrect. Just b/c it may not be in your lifetime doesn't mean never. So, I didn't forget that.

[NastyCat4]

This wasn't the doomsday hit? OH SORRY, FORGOT. I thought the city was 80% flooded, that many businesses were totally destroyed, that three levees overflowed, and that the city may be uninhabitable for months.
I was under the impression that people were killed, homes rendered rubble, and the infastructure in shambles, so as to affect the impact on the city for years. You mean that this wasn't the catastrophe I see on TV?? Are some people serious actutally indicating that New Orleand could have gotten away WORSE? Gad, what callousness on the part of some folk.

[Praxus]

This thread is getting dumb. OBVIOUSLY it could have been worse.
OBVIOUSLY it was still VERY bad.

next...

[x-y-no]

It was only the <b>worst-titled thread of all time </b>on this board....when I read the first 10 posts again today, it was amazing to see how no one had a real clue about what was happening and about to happen when the levees failed.

Well, if you cut it off at 10, then yes. But several of us at least were saying it may not have been the absolute worst scenario but it was very, very bad. I specifically referenced the issue that flooding was ongoing, for instance.

[feederband]

I believe this thread was good then and now...Watching the news media I too thought that NOLA escaped major damage and that the real story would be MS..The next day I was shocked at was going on...

[jasons2k]

This wasn't the doomsday hit? OH SORRY, FORGOT. I thought the city was 80% flooded, that many businesses were totally destroyed, that three levees overflowed, and that the city may be uninhabitable for months.
I was under the impression that people were killed, homes rendered rubble, and the infastructure in shambles, so as to affect the impact on the city for years. You mean that this wasn't the catastrophe I see on TV?? Are some people serious actutally indicating that New Orleand could have gotten away WORSE? Gad, what callousness on the part of some folk.

It's not callous, it's just stating the facts.

The problem with saying this was THE worst is you get the situation you had in MS, people assuming that since they survived Camille, they could survive anything. That mentality killed people. This is the SAME thing. Next time it may not be 80% it may be 100% with significantly more wind damage.

[wolfmmiii]

What happened in NO was devastating, no matter how you slice it. Instead of saying they "dodged a bullet" (something I've agreed with), it might be better to say they did not suffer the "doomsday scenario" envisioned by NWS/NHC.

NHC/NWS envisioned thousands dead, flash flooding, etc. While NO did experience some of this to an extent, it did not happen as quickly as envisioned in a "worst-case" scenario.

[NoceoTotus]

The way we describe it here is that while they dodged the 50 caliber hollow point bullet, they still got hit by the 38 caliber... May seem a bit "toungue in cheek" for some but it seems appropriate if you think about it.

[jax]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

Why someone would bring this up, I have no clue. This topic was made the morning after it hit when even the media, YES, THE MEDIA said that they had escaped the big one. Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already.

well, the reason i bumped this is because we here on the MS coast
have been offline for 2 weeks (i did access once from AL). I was
cusious what the thoughts were the few days after the storm and
ran accross this thread... it is in fact a very curious thread. No harm
meant.

I was able to hand out 100 cases of ice cold cokes, 3 cases of cheerios,
5 cases of peanutbutter, 50 bags of ice, 50 gallons of ice, 200 pints of
ice cold milk to children, 40 loafs of bread, 3 cases of crakers, 4 cases
of tuna, 3 cases of toilet paper and many other things in the first 4 days
after the storm. All door to door. I was running back and forth from
Spanish Fort, AL to Pascagoula. The churches in the area have by far
done the best job for these people...

to Pascagoula... I didn't see the first Red Cross

[quandary]

Either way, it is a question of WHEN. It could be next week; it could be in 2000 years. It's a gamble regardless of the schematics.

And the statement that NOLA will unlikely take this hit is factually incorrect. Just b/c it may not be in your lifetime doesn't mean never. So, I didn't forget that.

If it will only happen in 2000 years, then it really doesn't matter to us at the moment does it? Technology will advance itself so far in 2000 years that evacuation would be exceedingly simple, structures would withstand even winds of 200-300MPH and the infrastructure would survive a heavy soaking, pumps so powerful they would get the city dry in just a few days and treatment plants that would remove all the toxic chemicals from the water.

We are only concerned with what happens in the relatively near predictable future. 5, 10, 20 or 50 years seems like a good bet, anything outside of that time period, who knows what'll happen. And the odds of having a storm exceed Katrina's power at landfall in the next 50 years hit a major city is slim.

Basically, what I am saying is: this is about as bad of a scenario as we can get, though worse is possible, worse is always possible, any further debate on how bad it can be is purely theoretical, academic and in terms of order of magnitude, inconsequential.

[cajungal]

You go tell that to the evacuees that are staying here in the Houma-Thibodaux area. Ask them if they feel they escaped "The Big One". Ask them that after their homes are still under 10 ft of water and they were rescued from their rooftops. You go tell them that after they seen family members drown and a lifetime of memories down the drain. Sure, if it would of went a tad further west, or hit us here in the Houma area it would be worse. But, please, it is still very, very bad and I don't think anyone should make light of the situtation.

[Frank2]

I just wanted to mention one other item - many of us here in South Florida had the same feeling in the first hours after Hurricane Andrew's passage (that Miami had weathered the hurricane fairly well, considering it's slight weakening about 2-4 hours before landfall), however, it wasn't until midday that everyone (myself included) began to realize that things did not turn out as well as we first had thought, and it wasn't until late that afternoon that we realized that we were in trouble - it sounds like the person who posted this topic had a similar experience, and it's entirely understandable, and should be considered before posting a reply.

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

New orleans dodged the bullet you can try that one again New orleans under water Mississippi Coast look liked a nuclear bomb was droped on every coastal Mississippi town.

Why someone would bring this up, I have no clue. This topic was made the morning after it hit when even the media, YES, THE MEDIA said that they had escaped the big one. Had it not been for the levee breaks which causes the flooding and the devastation, this statement would have remained valid, so enough is enough already.

I say mate, you feeling a bit sheepish now after creating this thread?

It was only the <b>worst-titled thread of all time </b>on this board....when I read the first 10 posts again today, it was amazing to see how no one had a real clue about what was happening and about to happen when the levees failed.

so it's okay if CNN and FOX say it the morning after the storm, but when I say it, all of the sudden Im' crucified... .

[jasons2k]

Either way, it is a question of WHEN. It could be next week; it could be in 2000 years. It's a gamble regardless of the schematics.

And the statement that NOLA will unlikely take this hit is factually incorrect. Just b/c it may not be in your lifetime doesn't mean never. So, I didn't forget that.

If it will only happen in 2000 years, then it really doesn't matter to us at the moment does it? Technology will advance itself so far in 2000 years that evacuation would be exceedingly simple, structures would withstand even winds of 200-300MPH and the infrastructure would survive a heavy soaking, pumps so powerful they would get the city dry in just a few days and treatment plants that would remove all the toxic chemicals from the water.

We are only concerned with what happens in the relatively near predictable future. 5, 10, 20 or 50 years seems like a good bet, anything outside of that time period, who knows what'll happen. And the odds of having a storm exceed Katrina's power at landfall in the next 50 years hit a major city is slim.

Basically, what I am saying is: this is about as bad of a scenario as we can get, though worse is possible, worse is always possible, any further debate on how bad it can be is purely theoretical, academic and in terms of order of magnitude, inconsequential.

I get your point, but like I said above, the people in MS who used that logic because they survived Camille didn't make it. That's not inconsequential in my book.

[ConvergenceZone]

This wasn't the doomsday hit? OH SORRY, FORGOT. I thought the city was 80% flooded, that many businesses were totally destroyed, that three levees overflowed, and that the city may be uninhabitable for months.
I was under the impression that people were killed, homes rendered rubble, and the infastructure in shambles, so as to affect the impact on the city for years. You mean that this wasn't the catastrophe I see on TV?? Are some people serious actutally indicating that New Orleand could have gotten away WORSE? Gad, what callousness on the part of some folk.

and you forget that this topic was created the morning after the storm PRIOR to the DELAYED flooding. This thread was based on first hand reports from reporters from CNN and FOX. Some folks on this thread are acting as if this thread was created AFTER the horrific flooding, which it wasn't.

[houmaMel]

How exactly is dodging a bullet when there will be:

-No power to a million people for weeks
-Thousands of homes flooded (confirmed 4-6 feet in Metairie/Kenner, and 8-10 feet in Arabi/Chalmette/9th Ward)
-Thousands of cars destroyed
-Thousands of animals killed/abandoned
-Dozens to hundreds of humans killed
-200 year old oak trees and antebellum irreplacables destroyed forever
-Infrastructure will take years to fully rebuild?

Sure, technically there wasn't the Superdome being blown away with 15k souls, or the entire City wiped off the planet.. but it's going to make Andrew look like a weakling, and we will never recover fully

Couldn't have said it better.

[beachbum_al]

Dodge the bullet...No one dodge the bullet. People from LA to AL were hit hard.

[SouthFloridawx]

It wasn't a bullet it was more like a NUKE....