tropics look dead after ophelia?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Anyone watching the wave near 40 degrees west and 10 degrees north? Seems like the shower activity is on the increase.

[Andrew92]

Wow, can you imagine if we went into a bit of a lull? The tropics taking a nap in September; who would've thought?

There was sort of a lull in September of 1995, if you can believe that. While Marilyn was weakening as it was recurving out to sea, nothing else was developing. It became extratropical on September 22, and the next storm didn't develop until four days later.

Even if we get the lull like we may have right now, I don't expect it to last forever. Conditions are supposed to get more favorable for development later on.

-Andrew92

[ConvergenceZone]

Andrew, well, while you may be right considering some years, you also have to remember that there have also been many years where the season didn't have much to offer at all after September, and who's to say this won't be one of those years?? ....I think it's possible we may be winding down. That doesn't mean we won't see anymore storms, but I do believe the meat of the season has past. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Perhaps mother nature has made up her mind that we've had enough.

[bigmike]

Not to sound like a religious fanatic but maybe God is answering the prayers of many people and shutting the season down sooner

[Andrew92]

Andrew, well, while you may be right considering some years, you also have to remember that there have also been many years where the season didn't have much to offer at all after September, and who's to say this won't be one of those years?? ....I think it's possible we may be winding down. That doesn't mean we won't see anymore storms, but I do believe the meat of the season has past. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Perhaps mother nature has made up her mind that we've had enough.

That is true, but the word is the SOI will soon be back at 0, and the MJO may be close to a more favorable phase for tropical development. Add the boiling waters in some areas, and the neutral ENSO conditions, and the rest of this season will likely be a wild ride.

Some years you might be suggesting in terms of quieting down are perhaps 1993, 2002, and 2004. There was no more activity during the rest of 1993 after September. In 2002, Lili, the last storm of the year, developed in late September. And while 2004 as we know was a very active year, after Lisa in September, only three more storms developed, and none became hurricanes. They also only lasted a couple of days, and one was never even completely tropical (Nicole).

However, conditions in those three years were different. I don't remember the 1993 season well at all, but I think that at least the latter part may have been had El Nino conditions (1994 was an El Nino year if I remember right). I know that 2002 was an El Nino year, and there were El Nino conditions during late 2004. This year, there is no hint whatsoever of an El Nino; and if conditions get more favorable as I believe they are forecast to, 2005 is most definitely not winding down right now.

And I'm not forgetting that there are other factors that may be involved with a quieter rest of the season. However, I just don't see that happening right now.

Just my opinion though, and it's totally unofficial. If I was -removed-, I would predict no more storms this year. Or maybe some fish storms that hurt nobody. But I'm not going to wishcast; I am going to give my true and heartfelt opinion.

-Andrew92

[corpusbreeze]

Looks dead as hell. Must be nearing the end of a season. Texas season is of course at the end . Did Texas ever have a season these last two years? NOPE.. made another one. God bless Texas.

[NastyCat4]

If I were Texas, I would not write off the season just yet. Homebrew Carribbean storms are still a possibility, and an Emily track further north is still very much a definite possibility. Hey, Texas has no "bubble" around it, and is as vulnerable as is the rest of the country.

[Rashid]

as the SOI flips and MJO comes back, I would say that the Caribbean is the place to watch in the next 7-10 days. the season looks dead right now but another 5 storms is a good bet.

[recmod]

*BUMP*

Is anyone who posted in this thread feeling sheepish just a few days after so many claimed we were entering a lull and possibly nearing the end of the season???

--Lou

[Brent]

Lull cancel.

[jkt21787]

3/2/0. This is what I think we can expext.

A week later and we've already almost hit those numbers. I think you'll be off a bit with your forecast...

Unless of course you think it is over after this period of activity.

Given you and others have proclaimed this for weeks on end, I doubt it.

End of season CANCEL!

[MiamiensisWx]

"Dud season" and "dud storms" comments cancelled... big time.

[cycloneye]

And dont forget our friend 97 that is in the back of our minds because of Philippe and especially Rita.