Tropical Storm Ophelia

[NCHurricane]

I wish it would just make it's move.

No more than I do. Come on and do what you're going to do, O.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

DATA FROM SATELLITES...DOPPLER RADARS...AND AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
HIGHEST RECON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN RUNNING
67-70 KT BETWEEN 10000 TO 12000 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE RECON MAX WIND REPORT. THESE VALUES
WOULD SUPPORT 59-63 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
A BLEND OF THESE VALUES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/03 OVER THE PAST 9-12 HOURS. A
SMALL INNER-CORE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE INSIDE OF THE LARGER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SPITS AND SPURTS OF FORWARD MOTION...
INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS. HOWEVER...THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND
PRESSURE FIELD APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A
SMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MOVED FROM WEST
VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME
THE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED BY AT LEAST 30-40 METERS. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW
OPHELIA TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
CYCLONE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSSING THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER
THAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS DUE TO MORE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO DRIVE THE
CYCLONE MORE TO THE EAST AT HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE INNER CORE OF OPHELIA IS MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM WHERE
SSTS ARE 82F-83F. THE WARMER WATER HAS LIKELY HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE WIND CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE INNER REGION THAT HAS TO BE MIXED OUT
BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR. ONCE OPHELIA NEARS
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE SSTS DROP BY ABOUT 3F-5F...THERE
MAY BE SOME EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE LARGE SIZE OF THE RADIUS IF MAXIMUM WINDS...ONLY SLOW INTENSITY
CHANGES UP OR DOWN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE...DURING...AND AFTER
LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
AND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCUR. ONCE OPHELIA
CLEARS THE OUTER BANKS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 32.3N 78.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 34.9N 76.9W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/1200Z 35.4N 75.7W 65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
72HR VT 16/1200Z 36.7N 72.7W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 41.0N 65.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1200Z 47.0N 53.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[seahawkjd]

I would love it if someone with more knowledge then me could answer this question. Will the warnings / watches be extended any further north in the near future? Like to the NC / VA border?

[NCHurricane]

With the broad wind field, I would think at least TS warnings would be extended. <edit>There will be an Inland TS Warning in effect as far north as Williamston and Robersonville at 5am tomorrow<edit>:

Code: Select all

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

NCZ029-044-079-090>092-132115-
/X.UPG.KMHX.TI.A.0001.050914T0600Z-050915T0000Z/
/X.NEW.KMHX.TI.W.0001.050914T0900Z-050915T1200Z/
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...
ROSE HILL...KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...
MAYSVILLE...POLLOCKSVILLE
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND JONES COUNTY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS OPHELIA MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER JONES AND
DUPLIN COUNTIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FROM LENOIR COUNTY
NORTH INTO MARTIN COUNTY.

RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES... FALLEN TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$

Edit to correct time of Inland TS Warning

[cjrciadt]

[Jevo]

well they dont get much more together than that.... well except for the BAMS which are permanently out to lunch

[MBismyPlayground]

I wish it would just make it's move.

DARNED STRAIGHT. I am so tired of this already. Can't work because half the town is closed up. Kids are running the neighborhood, bored.
Animals acting crazy as loons. The only good thing right now is I am finding some great shells, will taking pics of the waves and erosion.
I call this "HURRICANE HURRY UP AND WAIT"

[NCHurricane]

From the forecast advisory:

Code: Select all

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

The eye has shrunk 70nm since last night.

[oneness]

If this not a hurricane now it'll do until it's declared one next advisory.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ltx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[whereverwx]

Wow, Ophelia is looking really healthy right now.

[beenthru6]

Wow, Ophelia is looking really healthy right now.

Looks like the gulf stream was the medicine she needed

[NCHurricane]

If it ever mixes that dry air out, she'll have it together.

[RU4REAL]

do you think she will mix the dry air out? I read a post earlier that said JB was looking for Ophelia to be around 970 mbs..(but you know how that goes)

[ThunderMate]

i think it will go north of the NHC track right now because the trof which is coming from the midwest will be slowed down by the mountains which will allow the strom to move more north before Northeast....any thoughts?

[NCHurricane]

do you think she will mix the dry air out? I read a post earlier that said JB was looking for Ophelia to be around 970 mbs..(but you know how that goes)

If she keeps on betting better organzied, she should get more outflow from center. That may mix it out, but I'm no met. They could give a better response.

[oneness]

Lots of fresh convection cells beginning to bubble up around the eye as the southern convective limb finally sutures with the eastern bands.

[RU4REAL]

Thanks for the response, btw I read somewhere that williamston would soon be put in a TS warning, if ya'll haven't been already, appears they thinking more inland..

[seahawkjd]

Where did you read this? Just wondering.

[RU4REAL]

hold tight I'm looking, I have read so much this morning I can't remember right now....bear with me while I search...

[RU4REAL]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

NCZ029-044-079-090>092-132115-
/X.UPG.KMHX.TI.A.0001.050914T0600Z-050915T0000Z/
/X.NEW.KMHX.TI.W.0001.050914T0900Z-050915T1200Z/
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...
ROSE HILL...KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...
MAYSVILLE...POLLOCKSVILLE
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.