East/Central Atl Waves,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Patrick99]

Wave coming off Africa looks good.....but I know that if I check back in 12 hours, there'll be nothing there.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yes I know is long range and has to be taken with a grain of salt but GFS shows some low pressures east of the islands in the comming 2 weeks.Will this wave be one of those that this and other models show?

[cycloneye]

I changed the title to include tropical waves and not single out only one because the models are hinting for sometime of development from one of the waves.So let's discuss about what is going on in the tropical atlantic and inside Africa as a possible late surge of activity from that part of the world may occur thanks to a wet MJO which is already propagating into the Atlantic.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes I saw those too Luis, would that not be the icing on the cupcake to have a major CV storm this year? You guys have had a break down there ( well deserved) climo wise. Lets hope for a fish, whatever the development. The GFS seems to have underdone the waves at times this year closer to the islands on the longer range runs.

[cycloneye]

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W S OF 15N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
LOW-LATITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N36.5N TO 14N33W AND ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 8N50W 16N47W 22N45W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY DRY
SAHARAN AIR/DUST WITH SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD.

Above is the 8 AM Discussion from TPC about the 2 waves that are in the surface analyisis in the tropical atlantic.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 10.3N 41.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 14.09.2005 10.3N 41.0W WEAK

12UTC 14.09.2005 9.8N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.09.2005 10.4N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.09.2005 11.4N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.09.2005 13.1N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.09.2005 14.3N 46.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.09.2005 15.5N 48.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.09.2005 16.8N 49.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.09.2005 17.7N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.09.2005 17.9N 51.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.09.2005 18.4N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

Ummm UKMET shows something developing in the tropical atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z loop of GFS shows a series of low pressures in the atlantic east of the islands with one of them turning into a hurricane north of Puerto Rico but moving north threatening Bermuda.

[Weathermaster]

Look what the NWS in San Juan says in their discussion:

FXCA62 TJSJ 131532
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1123 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2005

.UPDATE...A CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT HAS FORMED ON THE TAIL OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE AT 43 NORTH 35 WEST WILL
SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO MOVE IN ON THE
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR 12 NORTH 44 WEST APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANUPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MAY HAVE FORMED A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION. THIS
AREA WILL BE WATCHED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.

[cycloneye]

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS STILL LOW LATITUDE BUT HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE A
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW REGIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 8N49W 15N48W 21N45W
MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED AND
SHARP CIRCULATION...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE
SWLY SHEAR THAT IS KEEPING ALL CONVECTION TO THE E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 40W-47W.


2 PM Discussion about the 2 waves in the atlantic.