Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:43 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050913 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050913 1800 050914 0600 050914 1800 050915 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 38.5W 9.7N 39.9W 9.8N 41.4W 9.7N 43.3W
BAMM 9.5N 38.5W 9.8N 40.3W 10.0N 42.0W 10.2N 44.0W
A98E 9.5N 38.5W 9.7N 40.6W 10.0N 43.0W 10.2N 45.5W
LBAR 9.5N 38.5W 9.6N 40.4W 9.6N 42.5W 9.7N 45.0W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050915 1800 050916 1800 050917 1800 050918 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 45.5W 10.5N 50.1W 12.0N 53.9W 13.3N 56.6W
BAMM 10.7N 46.0W 12.4N 49.8W 14.6N 52.6W 16.6N 54.6W
A98E 10.2N 48.0W 11.1N 52.8W 11.5N 57.4W 11.5N 61.3W
LBAR 9.7N 47.9W 10.0N 53.9W 10.9N 58.6W 12.5N 60.2W
SHIP 41KTS 55KTS 69KTS 78KTS
DSHP 41KTS 55KTS 69KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 38.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Here we go again in this very busy 2005 season.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:45 am, edited 54 times in total.
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#2 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:46 pm

That was way faster than I thought. (head spinning) :eek:
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#3 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:49 pm

And its at a very low latitude. It would be approaching the W Caribbean and GOM as the wet phase of the MJO moves into the Atlantic Basin.
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#4 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:50 pm

WOW... :eek:

Looks like a problem for the islands in 5-6 days. Kinda reminds me of Emily... very low latitude.
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#5 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:50 pm

Image

They are updated now
Last edited by Brent on Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#6 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:53 pm

The map has not been updated yet. Check the model plots and look at the map again
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#7 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:56 pm

KatDaddy wrote:The map has not been updated yet. Check the model plots and look at the map again


Yeah... I was like, the islands suddenly moved to a lower latitude(because I know the northernmost islands are at 18 N) :lol:
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:59 pm

Graphic is now updated.
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#9 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:00 pm

Wait I thought the tropics were dead now.....Oh wait we are still in the peak of the season my bad... :roll: :lol:
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#10 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:05 pm

Oh dear, hope I'm not eating crow with my TX season comments.....
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#11 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:07 pm

I knew the season wasn't over :D
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#12 Postby Meso » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:08 pm

:eek: wow , another one *Stocks up on more coke and chips*
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#13 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:12 pm

Just when I thought the season was dead. And we were going to be in for a lull. Hopefully, this one will fall apart like some of the waves this season. We surely don't need another GOM system.
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#14 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:12 pm

Those model plots remind me of a certain unnamed storm from last year.

*zips his lips*

^At least I certainly hope its nothing like that one.
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#15 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:18 pm

Maybe this is what Joe B was talking about in his report. The Caribbean was going to be the hot spot this week. The two green model runs look like maybe it might curve out to sea and become a fish? I hope so. We need a good cold front to come down. It has been way too hot here and we have not had a drop of rain since Katrina hit nearly 2 weeks ago.
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#16 Postby BamaMan » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:26 pm

Oh Great . . . Just Great . . . . :eek:
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#17 Postby krysof » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:28 pm

The front would have to get really far south to take this out to sea, I'm getting a bad feeling about this one. Reminds me of Charley for some reason.
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#18 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:38 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Those model plots remind me of a certain unnamed storm from last year.

*zips his lips*

^At least I certainly hope its nothing like that one.


You mean the one whose name starts with I and ends with van? Yes, I thought so, too.
But it also reminds me of the Invest which faded away as it was moving towards the Islands a little south of 10N.
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#19 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:40 pm

Pretty disorganized mess at the moment, but the dry air has backed off, so this does look like a likely candidate.

I'm a little surprised at the medium BAM being so much further north than the deep BAM given the steering forecast by the GFS and Euro (haven't looked at others yet).

Seems to me this probably stays fairly far south and only develops slowly for the first few days.
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:40 pm

SAT IMAGERY
:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A big pic of the atlantic which shows invest 95L.Convection right now is not concentrated but scattered.Let's follow the progress of this system to see how it evolves.The sal is not as widespread as in past days as more moist air is around the area where invest 95L is.

Image
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