Tropical Storm Ophelia

[houmaMel]

Looks like everyone agrees

[nequad]

She's a cane again...

000
WTNT61 KNHC 132103
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
502 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA ALONG WITH
STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH WERE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 75-MPH HURRICANE AS OF 5 PM EDT...
OR 2100Z.

FORECASTER STEWART

[skysummit]

One of my GRLevel3 images.....

[MiamiensisWx]

Ophelia is now a hurricane again, based on a special update advisory from the National Hurricane Center issued at 5:02PM Eastern Time (EDT).

000
WTNT61 KNHC 132103
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
502 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA ALONG WITH
STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH WERE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 75-MPH HURRICANE AS OF 5 PM EDT...
OR 2100Z.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[SouthFloridawx]

I should have posted this instead of the one above. It refreshes by itself..... It's amazing lol j/k

[Okibeach]

has anyone noticed that the next plot on the forecast map is to the NE of the current position?This is confusing because they say a NNW motion at 3-4 knts is expected for the next 24 hours so how can the next plot be to the NE of its current position?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

just not sure how they got that track!?!

I noticed that as well. I guess at such a slow speed and eratic motion, the current movement does not rule out making that next point, but obviously it would need to start the more n, nne motion soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2 minutes after the Advisorie he upgrades?

[webke]

has anyone noticed that the next plot on the forecast map is to the NE of the current position?This is confusing because they say a NNW motion at 3-4 knts is expected for the next 24 hours so how can the next plot be to the NE of its current position?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

just not sure how they got that track!?!

I noticed that as well. I guess at such a slow speed and eratic motion, the current movement does not rule out making that next point, but obviously it would need to start the more n, nne motion soon.

I notiiced in Derek's last forecast path he had moved the path to the West, at this point I am still leaning toward Derek's path until I see this storm change direction. Derek's puts it closer to where I live but I took some additional precautions today because of it.

[x-y-no]

2 minutes after the Advisorie he upgrades?

Keep in mind, the advisories are finalized about half an hour before the nominal release time.

Since this special advisory says the data came in "within the last half hour" that implies they didn't have it when they finished the 5pm advisory.

[mf_dolphin]

You have to remember that the Advisories are written ahead of the release time. I've heard by as much as 45 minutes or so.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap! She's a Hurricane again!

[x-y-no]

Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals
33.44 N 77.74 W



Conditions at 41013 as of
(4:50 pm EDT)
2050 GMT on 09/13/2005:

Code: Select all

- Wind Direction   Wind Direction (WDIR):    E ( 90 deg true )
- Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   40.8 kts
- Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   50.5 kts
- Wave Height   Wave Height (WVHT):   16.7 ft
- Dominant Wave Period   Dominant Wave Period (DPD):   11 sec
- Average Period   Average Period (APD):   7.1 sec
- Mean Wave Direction   Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR):   SSE ( 150 deg true )
- Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.53 in
- Pressure Tendency   Pressure Tendency (PTDY):   -0.06 in ( Falling )
- Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   77.7 °F
- Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   81.3 °F
- Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   77.7 °F
- Heat Index   Heat Index (HEAT):   79.7 °F


---


Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC
32.50 N 79.09 W



Conditions at 41004 as of
(4:50 pm EDT)
2050 GMT on 09/13/2005:

Code: Select all

- Wind Direction (WDIR):   NNW ( 330 deg true )
- Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   44.7 kts
- Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   56.3 kts
- Wave Height   Wave Height (WVHT):   16.4 ft
- Dominant Wave Period   Dominant Wave Period (DPD):   9 sec
- Average Period   Average Period (APD):   6.4 sec
- Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   29.43 in
- Pressure Tendency   Pressure Tendency (PTDY):   -0.06 in ( Falling )
- Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   76.1 °F
- Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   79.9 °F
- Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   75.4 °F


[Okibeach]

:eek: Holy Crap! She's a Hurricane again!

Holy Crap! its Hurricane Girl again!


ILMAO every time I see you post that.

[storms in NC]

Do you all think she will still go into Wilm. then turn north? I am not home and worried about my family. I live 40 miles northeast of Wilm. I am in La helping out.

Deb

[Brent]

2 minutes after the Advisorie he upgrades?

The advisory was out at 4:40pm though...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED
RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE
WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65
MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO
10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[shaggy]

pressure are down 5mb in less than 4 hours and it is likely to keep dropping and she just might get to 85mph before landfall!!!

[Regit]

pressure are down 5mb in less than 4 hours and it is likely to keep dropping and she just might get to 85mph before landfall!!!

That's assuming there's a landfall. Looking at the latest radar and sat pics, she looks to be going NNE already. If the NE turn is happening sooner than expected, landfall may be avoided. Of course, it hard to go by the 5PM since the discussion said NNW for a while and the forecast suggests NNE immediately.

[stormynorfolk]

pressure are down 5mb in less than 4 hours and it is likely to keep dropping and she just might get to 85mph before landfall!!!

That's assuming there's a landfall. Looking at the latest radar and sat pics, she looks to be going NNE already. If the NE turn is happening sooner than expected, landfall may be avoided. Of course, it hard to go by the 5PM since the discussion said NNW for a while and the forecast suggests NNE immediately.

NNE? Where do you see that? I've been watching the radars for the entire day and don't see a NNE movement... can you show us a visual track? Perhaps I've been looking at the colors too long

[spinfan4eva]

Oh, Oh, Oo-Phel-Ia
Your breaking my heart
Carolina coast is getting torn apart

Get it ooo-ver
This is get-ting old Girl!