Long post about "Season is Dead" hype

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

People keep posting that...THE CAPE VERDE SEASON IS OVER....or that WE WILL ONLY HAVE TWO MORE NAMED STORMS THIS YEAR. First of all, Invest 95L proves them wrong, and some even seem SHOCKED it has popped up, I don't know why, when were in the peak of Hurricane Season.

When... truthfully....I think we are starting on Tammy by the beginning of October, and as my good friend Senor Pepr told me, "THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE!" The day he calls me conservative, is a crazy day.

There are two things that I believe may have put so many people in this mindset of having this season dead.

The first thing is that the 2003 and 2004 Hurricane Seasons scarred us so badly...we all remember, August 2003 was Fabian....September of 2003 was Isabel. After that, we go on with our Halloween/Thanksgiving/Christmas. So, by October of 2003...with Tropical Storm Larry...and Mindy, most people began to feel as if the season was over, which it pretty much was.

With the 2004 season, we yet again had a very active August. However, the seasons of 2000/2001/2002 had not had BIG Augusts. The tiring August and September made us glad that El Nino was setting in, by the end of Hurricane Jeanne in the final days of September 2004. So, we went on, without many more named storms.

Well...that is one mindset we may be in. That by late September, things should be dead. But, Jeanne hit Florida on September 25, 2004. It then died out over the Eastern USA. However, in the 2000 hurricane season, THREE NEW HURRICANES WERE FORMING ON SEPTEMBER 25! Remember the 2000 Hurricane Season? How active it got with Isaac, Joyce, Keith, Leslie, Michael and Nadine after September 25th? And how abou the 2001 Hurricane Season, Humberto, Cat 4 Iris, Karen, Lorenzo, Cat 4 Michelle, Noel, and Olga after September 25?

The main point is, typically...Middle October is when the Cape Verde wave train shuts down. It starts TYPICALLY in August...creating storms like Irene 2005....and ends in Middle October finishing creating storms like Iris 2001. However, it could begin sooner or later in any given year.

The second mindset people may be in...is that we had so much Hurricane Season 2005 by May of 2005, that we feel as though:

May 2005 was June 2005
June 2005 was July 2005
July 2005 was August 2005 (TWO CAT 4)

and it feels like Katrina hit at the end of SEPTEMBER....rather than August. With that mindset, we can also feel as though we are now in Middle-October, and that the season should be ending. It's anything but the case.

Just wanted to pass along these thoughts.

~Mike

[senorpepr]

*nods* Good points. ...and nice reference.

[x-y-no]

Yeah ...

Moist phase of the MJO should be back in two weeks or so. At the rate this season is going, we'll have a "lull" with only a couple of storms in the interim, and then a burst of activity.

[TheShrimper]

Everyone has continued to jump on the bandwagon this year for every cloud mass that has come off the coast of Africa, deignating them as "hurricanes", and all have fizzled. One should not expect this to do anything else but that. Too late, to many upper level atmospheric obstacles to hurrdle. The season is done east of the islands. It is time to look closer to home and I will agree that the season is far from over. As far as long runners, anything E of 45 and N of 15 will get picked up. Low runners, will be just that and if they develop they will pose a problem to the central C.A. coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

That was funny people saying the season is dead and this and that. Then there was 95L.

[LarryWx]

The main point is, typically...Middle October is when the Cape Verde wave train shuts down. It starts TYPICALLY in August...creating storms like Irene 2005....and ends in Middle October finishing creating storms like Iris 2001. However, it could begin sooner or later in any given year.
~Mike

Just to tie into my CV thread regarding U.S. THREATS, NONE of the 36 storms that first became TD+'s on or after 9/26 E of 55W since 1851 later hit the U.S. The U.S. threats come from areas further west. So, the CV season is really about over by 9/26 as far as FORMATIONS of TD's that later hit the U.S. are concerned even if the CV wave train is still going.

[Anonymous]

The main point is, typically...Middle October is when the Cape Verde wave train shuts down. It starts TYPICALLY in August...creating storms like Irene 2005....and ends in Middle October finishing creating storms like Iris 2001. However, it could begin sooner or later in any given year.
~Mike

Just to tie into my CV thread regarding U.S. THREATS, NONE of the 36 storms that first became TD+'s on or after 9/26 E of 55W since 1851 later hit the U.S. The U.S. threats come from areas further west. So, the CV season is really about over by 9/26 as far as FORMATIONS of TD's that later hit the U.S. are concerned even if the CV wave train is still going.

But...it's all luck. What if the system stays weak, then gets picked up by a trough south of Cuba, and hits Florida as a hurricane???

[LarryWx]

Just to tie into my CV thread regarding U.S. THREATS, NONE of the 36 storms that first became TD+'s on or after 9/26 E of 55W since 1851 later hit the U.S. The U.S. threats come from areas further west. So, the CV season is really about over by 9/26 as far as FORMATIONS of TD's that later hit the U.S. are concerned even if the CV wave train is still going.

But...it's all luck. What if the system stays weak, then gets picked up by a trough south of Cuba, and hits Florida as a hurricane???

Floydbuster, I agree 100% with your general idea that "the season is dead" hype has been a bunch of crapola. My point is that those looking for U.S. threats coming from cyclones forming east of 55W AFTER 9/25 are going to be sorely dissapointed year in and year out. There are still plenty of threats, but east of 55W after 9/25 is not the place to emphasize. The three storms you showed are great examples!

Regarding your idea of luck, although nothing is 100% certain, 154 years of climo is way too much to ignore imho. The scenario you describe (say a TD forming EAST of 55W that remains weak until the W. Caribbean, doesn't fall apart, and then hits FL as a TS+) hasn't occurred at least since 1851 per records. The odds of it occurring this year are near zero imo based on the stats. The TD would need to form WEST of 55W imo.

[Anonymous]

It has been luck somewhat. Storms like Hurricane Joyce in 2000, Joyce was expected to be a US threat down the road, as was Tropical Storm Jerry in 2001. Both poofed.

[KatDaddy]

I must add my two cents about the Texans thinking hurricane season is over. Texas is vunerable to tropical systems. Funny how quick Jerry 1989 and the 1949 hurricane are forgotten as well as several close calls such as Lili 2003 and Juan 1985. There is still plenty of very warm GOM water and the pattern is very slow to change. I would not be surprised to see the BOC spawn a tropical system that heads N instead of W into Mexico. This has been a very active season and another burst is coming for late Sept and early Oct. Lets hope any tropical system stays away from the NOLA area and points eastward to Pensacola.

[southerngale]

I must add my two cents about the Texans thinking hurricane season is over. Texas is vunerable to tropical systems. Funny how quick Jerry 1989 and the 1949 hurricane are forgotten as well as several close calls such as Lili 2003 and Juan 1985. There is still plenty of very warm GOM water and the pattern is very slow to change. I would not be surprised to see the BOC spawn a tropical system that heads N instead of W into Mexico. This has been a very active season and another burst is coming for late Sept and early Oct. Lets hope any tropical system stays away from the NOLA area and points eastward to Pensacola.

psst: Lili was in 2002, not 2003.

Well, of course I'll watch and be prepared as I always am, but I really don't think anything will threaten us. JMO though.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for the correction southerngale

[jasons2k]

One thing I will not forget until the end of the season was the comment from Franklin at the NHC on 7/12/05:

"SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY."

[LarryWx]

It has been luck somewhat. Storms like Hurricane Joyce in 2000, Joyce was expected to be a US threat down the road, as was Tropical Storm Jerry in 2001. Both poofed.

Interesting discusion...
1) Joyce doesn't fit my criteria of first becoming a TD on or after 9/26. So, that one can really be ignored for the purposes of my CV analysis. Regardless, it didn't even come close to the U.S.

2) Jerry does fit my criteria, but the fact is that even it didn't really come close to the U.S. Many models and/or forecasters suggesting a U.S. hit (I'm taking your word for it) doesn't mean a hit. They were simply wrong. You said it "went poof" due to luck almost as if you were implying it was supposed to have hit. Despite what the models may have made us think was going to occur, it never was in the cards for it to happen. We just didn't know it at the time.

The bottom line..I can't ignore 154 years of climo. If we were to not have a single storm hit the U.S. for the next 100 years that had first become a TD east of 55W on or after 9/26, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Do I think it is impossible? No, of course not. If we were to have one or two over the next 100 years, that also wouldn't shock me since there are few absolutes with weather. But regardless, climo can be a very powerful tool as far as getting a good feel for the odds of something occurring. This is a great example of that imho. Come 9/26, I'll be far more interested in any TD that forms west of 55W than east of 55W as far as the U.S. is concerned. The same climo also tells me that it would be quite surprising if we don't have activity in the western Atlantic basin 9/26+!