Tropical Storm Ophelia

[HURAKAN]

BOMBING?!?!?! NO!!!!

13/2345 UTC 32.7N 78.2W T4.5/4.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean


85 mph according to DVORAK.

[storms in NC]

Do you all think she will still go into Wilm. then turn north? I am not home and worried about my family. I live 40 miles northeast of Wilm. I am in La helping out.

Deb

First, God bless you for your direct support contribution to the victims of Katrina. Wallace will see heavy rainfall and steady winds for awhile of around 60MPH or so. All the guidance is betting on "O" as an offshore coast-hugger. The center of "O" should pass about 50 mi to the SE of Wallace. At that distance, Wallace will certainly get some high winds, but be spared the hurricane force winds. BTW, Wallace is 40 mi due north of Wilmington.

Thank so much. But I am northeast of Wilm I live 15 miles or so out side of Wallace like if you were going to Jacksonville 20 miles from there.I live out on HWY 41east of I 40

I stand corrected.

No trouble at all you had no way of knowing. I have a farm out there. I sure do miss home. But people here need me too. I will keep a eye on her. I just know she will go up the Cape Fear river it always does. But I hope that I am very wrong
Deb

[greeng13]

BOMBING?!?!?! NO!!!!

13/2345 UTC 32.7N 78.2W T4.5/4.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean


85 mph according to DVORAK.

i don't think we're talking about bombing...just openeing (with regard to the eye)

[JtSmarts]

BOMBING?!?!?! NO!!!!

13/2345 UTC 32.7N 78.2W T4.5/4.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean


85 mph according to DVORAK.

Probably not bombing yet, according to latest vortex pressure is up. Probably still trying to get organized.

[shaggy]

ukmet and GFDL now show no landfall at all but both show an east movement as of the initialization so we will have to wait and see

[webke]

I have a question, if Ophelia does gain strength will she over power the trough that is suppose to push her to the east. and also could the models be over stating the strength of the trough.

[shaggy]

with ophelia anything is possible but not sure how much her strength would change her track

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 140017
A. HURRICANE OPHELIA (SIXTEEN)
B. 13/2331Z (82)
C. 32.7N/2
D. 78.2W/7
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS -13/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

13A/ PBO BNDG EYE/ANMTN. EYE PTRN STILL VRY EVIDENT ON
LATEST SATL IMG...HWVR...THE LGT GRAY (LG) RING IS VRY BKN
AND DISTORTED OVR NRN PTN OF SYS...SO UNABLE TO MEASURE USING
NORMAL EYE PTRN. HENCE...HAD TO RELY ON BNDG EYE FEATURE
INSTEAD. POSN RMNS RELATIVELY UNCHGD OVR PAST 3HRS...CNVCTN
CONTS TO ROTATE ARND CONCENTRIC CNTR. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 USING
THE LOG10 SPRIAL GIVING A DT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...BOTH
MET AND PT AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (CLR EYE)

LAURENTI



Air Force T numbers and info about the systems structure.

[seahawkjd]

So is it 3.5 or 4.5? DSoutherland is saying 4.5 in the analyst forum and obviously he's very credible lol. Of course Cyclone you are too, so I'm very confused now

[cycloneye]

So is it 3.5 or 4.5? DSoutherland is saying 4.5 in the analyst forum and obviously he's very credible lol. Of course Cyclone you are too, so I'm very confused now

That is not from me as it's from the Air Force which do sat estimates.Yes I saw SSD dvorak with the 4.5 sat estimate that don said and am posting below.

13/2345 UTC 32.7N 78.2W T4.5/4.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean

[CronkPSU]

so let's split the difference and call it 4.0

[wxman57]

Ophelia still looks to be struggling this evening. Big open center, convection diminishing. The strongest winds are only about 30 miles from the coast south of Wilmington, now. There really isn't much time for strengthening. The NHC was really stretching to call Ophelia a hurricane. Recon supposedly found only a tiny area northwest of the center that might have had hurricane-force wind. But convection there has weakened considerably since this afternoon. Current vortex messages indicate a slowly rising pressure. They did find a FL wind of 76 kts, but this type of storm won't necessarily carry those FL winds down to the surface very well. Ophelia passed across a number of ships/buoys today, and I couldn't find a wind over 45 kts. For the most part, winds in that 50 mile-wide ring around the center appear to be 45-50 kts. That's what I expect the coast of North Carolina to experience before sunrise on Wednesday. They're getting very lucky with this storm. Could have been a lot worse if it hadn't lost its core the other day.

[Lowpressure]

Ophelia still looks to be struggling this evening. Big open center, convection diminishing. The strongest winds are only about 30 miles from the coast south of Wilmington, now. There really isn't much time for strengthening. The NHC was really stretching to call Ophelia a hurricane. Recon supposedly found only a tiny area northwest of the center that might have had hurricane-force wind. But convection there has weakened considerably since this afternoon. Current vortex messages indicate a slowly rising pressure. They did find a FL wind of 76 kts, but this type of storm won't necessarily carry those FL winds down to the surface very well. Ophelia passed across a number of ships/buoys today, and I couldn't find a wind over 45 kts. For the most part, winds in that 50 mile-wide ring around the center appear to be 45-50 kts. That's what I expect the coast of North Carolina to experience before sunrise on Wednesday. They're getting very lucky with this storm. Could have been a lot worse if it hadn't lost its core the other day.

Very good and accurate post. Thank you.

[Rainband]

Is she moving, drifting east now??

[tailgater]

Ophelia still looks to be struggling this evening. Big open center, convection diminishing. The strongest winds are only about 30 miles from the coast south of Wilmington, now. There really isn't much time for strengthening. The NHC was really stretching to call Ophelia a hurricane. Recon supposedly found only a tiny area northwest of the center that might have had hurricane-force wind. But convection there has weakened considerably since this afternoon. Current vortex messages indicate a slowly rising pressure. They did find a FL wind of 76 kts, but this type of storm won't necessarily carry those FL winds down to the surface very well. Ophelia passed across a number of ships/buoys today, and I couldn't find a wind over 45 kts. For the most part, winds in that 50 mile-wide ring around the center appear to be 45-50 kts. That's what I expect the coast of North Carolina to experience before sunrise on Wednesday. They're getting very lucky with this storm. Could have been a lot worse if it hadn't lost its core the other day.

All that may be true but her radar images look a whole lot better than 3 or 4 hours ago.

[Thunder44]

Looking at latest radar images. It's gaining back it's inner core. Convection is increasing and wrapping around inside the open center. It's got ways to go, but it's slowly getting better organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kltx.shtml

[Lowpressure]

It is starting to fill in, must be right over the Gulf Stream. This has been a strange system to watch and learn from.

[krysof]

Ophelia is really getting on my nerves now, it was interesting 4-5 days ago, but now it's just a nuisance.

[storms in NC]

Is she moving, drifting east now??

No still very slow to the NW

[wxman57]

Ophelia still looks to be struggling this evening. Big open center, convection diminishing. The strongest winds are only about 30 miles from the coast south of Wilmington, now. There really isn't much time for strengthening. The NHC was really stretching to call Ophelia a hurricane. Recon supposedly found only a tiny area northwest of the center that might have had hurricane-force wind. But convection there has weakened considerably since this afternoon. Current vortex messages indicate a slowly rising pressure. They did find a FL wind of 76 kts, but this type of storm won't necessarily carry those FL winds down to the surface very well. Ophelia passed across a number of ships/buoys today, and I couldn't find a wind over 45 kts. For the most part, winds in that 50 mile-wide ring around the center appear to be 45-50 kts. That's what I expect the coast of North Carolina to experience before sunrise on Wednesday. They're getting very lucky with this storm. Could have been a lot worse if it hadn't lost its core the other day.

All that may be true but her radar images look a whole lot better than 3 or 4 hours ago.

I'm logged into my office workstation running GARP radar imagery. I don't really see much of a change from 3 hours ago, with the exception that the southern eyewall is now closer to the radar and/or isn't being attenuated by strong convection to the north, so it's more visible now. Satellite doesn't indicate any increase in convection. Just the reverse, in fact. Also, note that the center is still about 52 nautical miles across. It's not shrinking.

It does appear to be moving very slowly northward now. I put the center near 32.5N/78W at 0148Z. Here's a snapshot of my workstation image. I put a 1 degree lat/lon grid on the image for easy location of the center.

Note that the leading edge of the heaviest squalls/strongest winds is now 11 nautical miles from the coast south of Wilmington. For the past 4 hours, I measure about 10.6 nautical miles toward 031 degrees. About 2.6 kts to NE. But with all the wobbling around, I don't think the NE movement is an accurate assessment. It is drifting slowly northward, though.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/opheliaradar.gif">