Tropical Storm Ophelia

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#1581 Postby NCHurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:23 am

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 140841
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO
BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...AND AN
ERRATIC MOTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. A NOAA BUOY JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA
REPORTED GUSTS TO 69 MPH.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.
 
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...33.2 N... 77.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
$$



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#1582 Postby NCHurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:24 am

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 140842
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 980
MB AND BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION. WINDS
COULD INCREASE A LITTLE MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY.

OPHELIA HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS...OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.
BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...OPHELIA IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRIMARILY A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE
ONCE BACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. IT SHOULD BE AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE...MAINLY DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD WHEN
ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION.

NOAA BUOY 41013 JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA REPORTED GUSTS
TO 60 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 985.7 MB AT 08Z.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 33.2N  77.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 33.8N  77.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 34.7N  76.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  75.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  73.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  59.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/0600Z 48.0N  48.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$



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#1583 Postby NCHurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:25 am

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 140842
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162005
0900Z WED SEP 14 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO
BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  77.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  45SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 225SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  77.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  77.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.8N  77.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.7N  76.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.3N  75.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 44.0N  59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.0N  48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N  77.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
$$



Chuck
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#1584 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 5:43 am

seahawkjd wrote:Just wondering wx,

Why do you keep saying the 90 percent rule still doesn't apply to this system now that it has a closed eye wall? Is it still hybrid? I just woke up so I'm trying to figure out whats going on this morning lol.


That's correct, seahawkjd. It is somewhat of a hybrid system Once it sucked in all that dry air, the higher winds likely elevated above the surface. To compound that, it has a very large eye for so high a pressure. Winds just can't flow in toward the center. The NHC's surface wind estimates have, for the most part, been based upon observations from 5000-10000 feet up. However, they do have radar and dropwindsondes that can measure low-level winds.

I'll have to post a wind profile of Bonnie back in 1998 in the same area. I believe the plane found 100-110 kt FL wind but surface winds were just barely above hurricane force. I'll send myself an email to remind me.

Oh, here's a surface wind analysis done yesterday by the HRD. Note the 55 kt max wind area to the right of the center, but only 45-50 kts west of the center. I suspect that wind profile hasn't changed much since yesterday, but they will issue new plots today.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png
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#1585 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:00 am

wxman57 wrote:
I'll have to post a wind profile of Bonnie back in 1998 in the same area. I believe the plane found 100-110 kt FL wind but surface winds were just barely above hurricane force. I'll send myself an email to remind me.




I would be very interested in reading this. I have some data, and I remember Bonnie's life, but your comments would be helpful.


Jim
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#1586 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:19 am

Here's an enlightening buoy report. The buoy at Frying Pan Shoals (33.44N/77.74W) went DIRECTLY through the northern eyewall and is now in the dead center of Ophelia. Maximum sustained winds reported were 48 kts:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

Those observations are very likely representative of the winds in that 50-60 mile wide ring around Ophelia's center. Other buoys in the area report similar winds.

Here's another, the Onlsow Bay, NC buoy just south of Wilmington at 34.48 N 77.28 W. It's getting into Ophelia's heaviest squalls now and has just 33 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41035

Surface observations would suggest a moderate TS at best. But I don't necessarly disagree with the NHC's calling it a hurricane, as these storms can change intensity quickly. Better safe than sorry.
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#1587 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:24 am

Jim Hughes wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I'll have to post a wind profile of Bonnie back in 1998 in the same area. I believe the plane found 100-110 kt FL wind but surface winds were just barely above hurricane force. I'll send myself an email to remind me.




I would be very interested in reading this. I have some data, and I remember Bonnie's life, but your comments would be helpful.


Jim


Here you go (I'm at work now). Found Bonnie's wind profile as it approached the SE US Coast in 1998. Note the 120-140 kt flight level winds but ONLY 80-82 kts at the surface. I believe that we're seeing the same sort of vertical wind profile with Ophelia, except that FL winds are much lower than with Bonnie:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bonnieprofile.gif">
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#1588 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:27 am

Thanks.. that's why I love this place...tons of info and thoughts that everybody has.


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#1589 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:30 am

Here's a GARP screenshot of the nothern eyewall passing over the buoy. Buoy was reporting 45 kt winds in that ring of convection. I thiink that's most likely a good reflection of winds around Ophelia's center. here's the screenshot:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ophelia60.gif">
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#1590 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:33 am

wxman57 wrote:
seahawkjd wrote:Just wondering wx,

Why do you keep saying the 90 percent rule still doesn't apply to this system now that it has a closed eye wall? Is it still hybrid? I just woke up so I'm trying to figure out whats going on this morning lol.


That's correct, seahawkjd. It is somewhat of a hybrid system Once it sucked in all that dry air, the higher winds likely elevated above the surface. To compound that, it has a very large eye for so high a pressure. Winds just can't flow in toward the center. The NHC's surface wind estimates have, for the most part, been based upon observations from 5000-10000 feet up. However, they do have radar and dropwindsondes that can measure low-level winds.

I'll have to post a wind profile of Bonnie back in 1998 in the same area. I believe the plane found 100-110 kt FL wind but surface winds were just barely above hurricane force. I'll send myself an email to remind me.

Oh, here's a surface wind analysis done yesterday by the HRD. Note the 55 kt max wind area to the right of the center, but only 45-50 kts west of the center. I suspect that wind profile hasn't changed much since yesterday, but they will issue new plots today.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png



I find it funny that the NHC who are the experts on tropical cyclones have said nothing about this being a "Hybrid" Storm.
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#1591 Postby Skyline » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:43 am

Yeah I'm not so sure a "professional" going around calling what the NHC has as a Hurricane is "professional" even if I agree and surface data suggests so. However, latest vortex found 80kts SE and even with a .8 reduction is a 65 kt cane. If those winds do mix down to the surface we have another story.

Nor do I think the complacent attitude is what is called for. This storm will drop copious amount of rain and produce an isolated tornado. Down playing the threat is . . . not what is called for here.
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#1592 Postby Skyline » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:45 am

And let me add:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance and NOAA land-based
Doppler radars indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 80 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight strengthening is still
possible during the next 24 hours before landfall occurs."

From 8am advisory. So much for blackberry.
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#1593 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:46 am

WTNT31 KNHC 141143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG OR PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR NORTH CAROLINA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO
69 MPH BEFORE THE LARGE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED OVER THE BUOY. IN
ADDITION...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW SPREAD ONSHORE THE
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHEASTWARD TO
CAPE LOOKOUT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...33.4 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#1594 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 6:49 am

Skyline wrote:Yeah I'm not so sure a "professional" going around calling what the NHC has as a Hurricane is "professional" even if I agree and surface data suggests so. However, latest vortex found 80kts SE and even with a .8 reduction is a 65 kt cane. If those winds do mix down to the surface we have another story.

Nor do I think the complacent attitude is what is called for. This storm will drop copious amount of rain and produce an isolated tornado. Down playing the threat is . . . not what is called for here.


Sorry if the facts disappoint you. The conversion fro Bonnie, by the way, was closer to .6 to .7. That may well be the case here. But the NHC's job is to protect the general public. In this case, they're clearly playing it safe, which is something that I don't think that I can fault them for. Tropical cyclones can change very quuickly.

Oh, and your first sentence doesn't make senss. I think some words are missing.
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#1595 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:01 am

Skyline wrote:And let me add:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance and NOAA land-based
Doppler radars indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 80 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight strengthening is still
possible during the next 24 hours before landfall occurs."

From 8am advisory. So much for blackberry.


Land-based Doppler radars CANNOT measure surface winds except for within 5-10 miles of the radar. The Earths' curvature means that those radar beams are passing about 5000-10,000 feet above the surface at Ophelia's location. So that Doppler radar is measuring flight level winds, not surface winds.

Now, keep in mind that I'm not broadcasting my opinions over the airwaves to the general public. This is simply an online discussion group. I would not have told everyone to stay on the beaches, this is nothing to worry about. I'm simply stating facts about actual observations as the storm passes various reporting points. And those facts do not support Ophelia being classified as a hurricane.

Show me an actual surface MEASUREMENT of wind speeds 65 kts or greater, please.

Have to go back to work now.
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Derek Ortt

#1596 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:20 am

if there are any hurricane force winds, which is very unlikely at this time, they are in the southern "eye wall"
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#1597 Postby whereverwx » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:22 am

Calamity wrote:Is it me, or is she now moving NNE?!

Image


Wow! :D I guess I was right!

Image
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x-y-no
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#1598 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:32 am

Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals
33.44 N 77.74 W

Center passing very near.

Image

Conditions at 41013 as of
(7:50 am EDT)
1150 GMT on 09/14/2005:

Code: Select all

- Wind Direction   Wind Direction (WDIR):   ENE ( 70 deg true )
- Wind Speed   Wind Speed (WSPD):   5.8 kts
- Wind Gust   Wind Gust (GST):   9.7 kts
- Wave Height   Wave Height (WVHT):   11.5 ft
- Dominant Wave Period   Dominant Wave Period (DPD):   10 sec
- Average Period   Average Period (APD):   6.5 sec
- Mean Wave Direction   Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR):   ESE ( 119 deg true )
- Atmospheric Pressure   Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):   28.98 in
- Pressure Tendency   Pressure Tendency (PTDY):   -0.06 in ( Falling )
- Air Temperature   Air Temperature (ATMP):   78.8 °F
- Water Temperature   Water Temperature (WTMP):   81.5 °F
- Dew Point   Dew Point (DEWP):   78.8 °F
- Heat Index   Heat Index (HEAT):   83.1 °F
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#1599 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:33 am

While I respect the pros opinions here, I believe it's enough this is a hurricane by looking at the current pressure of the storm, satellite and radar images. I don't dispute the obs, but one or two buoy doesn't cover the entire storm, nor can you really measure every square inch of the storm. One thing I've learned about hurricanes is that everywhere around the eye are the maxium sustained that TPC reports. It's only the maximun as well not the minimum. And it's really moot to be splitting hairs with this storm when it's about the make landfall.
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Derek Ortt

#1600 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 14, 2005 7:40 am

the bouys have sampled enough of the storm to clearly indicate that this is most likely not a 70KT storm.

the pressure has zero bearing on whether or not its a hurricane or a TS, 10 meter wind speed is the sole determining factor
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